US soy crush falls behind export demand in December

Increased export demand for soybean meal and soybean oil pulled stocks below year ago levels in December despite record soybean crush over the month, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data.

US soybean crush reached a record-setting 5.92mn t in December, up by 6pc over the prior year. US soybean meal production gained 7pc over the prior year, reaching 4.38mnt, while crude soybean oil production gained 8pc to reach 1.17mn t.

While soybean meal production increased by 7pc, December use gained 12pc over the prior year to reach 4.42mn t. US soybean meal use has, in part, been driven higher by increased export demand. Current USDA projections place US soybean meal exports at 15.79mn t for the 2024-25 marketing year, up by 8pc from the prior year. So far, export sales data indicates this level is likely to be reached, with 9.21mn t sold for export through 23 January of the marketing year, 11pc above the same interval of the 2023-24 marketing year.

With soybean meal use exceeding production over the month of December, stock levels declined counter seasonally to 380,000t, dropping stock-to-use ratios two percentage points from year ago levels.

Crude soybean oil use also gained over the prior year, up 13pc, to reach 1.14mn t. Both refining and non-refining uses for crude soybean oil remained above year ago levels over December. Refined soybean oil production increased 11pc from the prior year, reaching 870,000t. Non-refining use gained 19pc over the prior year to reach 250,000t.

As with soybean meal, use has been driven higher over the 2024-25 marketing year by much higher export demand. Through 23 January, export sales of US soybean oil reached 672,000t, a nearly twenty-fold increase over the same period of the 2023-24 marketing year.

As a result, crude soybean oil stock levels dipped 14pc from the prior year to their lowest level or record, down to 540,000t, pulling the stock-to-use ratio down 14 percentage points to 48pc.

By Ryan Koory