Major conventional refiners are confident their early investment in renewable diesel will help ease their transition from the long-running biofuel blenders' credit to a new producers' credit, given the lower value they can capitalize on and potential objectives of the new US administration.
These major refiners — including Chevron, Valero, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum — have greater access to capital than smaller producers and have shown they can scale even in an uncertain policy environment. They are focusing on lower carbon intensity feedstocks that will garner greater incentives this year.
At the same time, the industry has gradually shifted from a focus on biodiesel to renewable diesel. Renewable diesel generates more value from federal Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, is made more often from lower carbon intensity feedstocks like beef tallow and used cooking oil, and can be blended or substituted at higher rates than biodiesel. Refinery tooling needed for the production of renewable diesel is also much closer to that of a conventional crude-oil fed refinery, meaning that refiners looking to repurpose refining assets have an easier path to entering the renewable fuels space. As a result, major refiners across the industry have invested more heavily in renewable diesel in recent years.
Marathon Petroleum chief commercial officer Rick Hessling alluded to policy uncertainty on an earnings call this month but said the company's 48,000 b/d California renewable diesel facility was well prepared to weather the storm.
"We will control what we can control, and from a feedstock optimization perspective, we're procuring advantaged feedstocks with low [carbon intensities] and then placing them, as you would certainly expect us to, in the highest-margin market as possible," he said.
Underscoring the advantage renewable diesel has over biodiesel, Chevron — after idling multiple biodiesel plants last year — also announced the final commissioning of the renewable diesel expansion at its Geismar, Louisiana, facility this month. The transition from biodiesel to renewable diesel within its portfolio opens up greater opportunities for monetization of the new biofuel producers' credit, also known as 45Z, since the facility has greater access to lower-carbon feedstocks than its landlocked biodiesel plants. In general, biodiesel facilities rely more on local vegetable oils for feedstock, which are disadvantaged under the new 45Z credit's larger subsidies for lower-carbon fuels.
Over the last six months, biodiesel production facilities owned by Delek, Hero BX, and Renewable Biofuels have idled production or entered prolonged maintenance in the wake of credit uncertainty, according to latest Argus estimates. Especially given lower 45Z credit values this year, these producers have to rely on the generation and monetization of RIN credits to balance the costs of feedstock inputs. When policy shifts like tariffs and limits on the use of certain feedstocks disconnect RIN values from feedstock costs, it can add even greater headwinds that only larger, well-positioned producers can handle.
Given President Donald Trump's objectives within the energy space, the 45Z tax credit,under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and other biofuel policy incentives exist in somewhat of a contradiction. Trump has made clear he wants to scale back distribution of IRA funds and has gone as far as calling investment in decarbonization "wasteful" and "a scam."
But his support base and platform favor major oil refiners in their quest to maximize output and profit in the name of energy security and job creation. The 45Z credit, which adds a protectionist spin to renewable fuel production by cutting off eligibility for imported fuels, would seem to align with Trump's focus on energy dominance. Major oil and gas companies expanding renewable fuel production and increasingly outcompeting smaller and foreign rivals only add to that narrative.
