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Ireland risks €8bn-26bn costs for missed climate goals

  • Market: Emissions
  • 06/03/25

Ireland could be subject to fines of €7.5bn-26.4bn ($8.1bn-28.6bn) if it fails to implement climate measures to meet its 2030 targets under EU regulations, a joint report by the country's Fiscal Advisory Council and Climate Change Advisory Council found.

Missing Ireland's commitments could lead to costs of €5.4bn-16.2bn under the EU's effort sharing regulation (ESR), €1.6bn-5.8bn under the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) regulation, and €0.5bn-4.4bn under the renewable energy directive (RED), the report found.

Fully implementing the government's climate action plan by 2030 could reduce these costs, but they would still stand at €3.4bn-11.9bn, the report said — €2.7bn-7.6bn under the ESR, €0.5bn-1.7bn under the LULUCF regulation, and €0.2bn-2.6bn under RED.

Ireland is on track to exceed its targeted 2030 emissions levels in the sectors covered by the ESR — domestic transport, buildings, small industry, waste and agriculture — by 57pc with existing measures, or by 28pc if additional planned measures are implemented, the report said.

Ireland has the fifth-largest gap towards its ESR targets of any EU member state after Germany, France, Italy and Romania, according to the report. Overstepping the target would require Ireland to purchase emissions allowances from member states that have gone beyond their mandated cuts.

The report projects the country's emissions under the LULUCF regulation to stand at more than double the targeted level in 2030 based on existing measures, or 7pc above with additional measures. And its renewable energy share under RED is expected to be 12 percentage points below mandated levels with existing measures, or marginally below without.

Investing less than half of the maximum potential cost of non-compliance with the regulations in emissions-saving measures could lead to significant progress towards meeting the targets, the report found.

Some €4bn could reduce the cost of 700,000 new electric vehicles — representing a third of households — to €15,000 per car and increase charging infrastructure, €7bn could upgrade the country's energy grid, and €1bn could support land improvements such as forestry and peatland restoration.

"By not taking actions like these, Ireland faces a colossal missed opportunity to both reduce emissions in line with its commitments and deliver significant improvements in Irish society," the report said.


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