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Canada levies new C$30bn counter-tariffs on US: Update

  • Market: Metals
  • 12/03/25

Adds aluminum, steel trade data.

Canada is levying new counter-tariffs worth nearly C$30bn ($20.9bn) on the US in response to Washington's 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports.

As of 12:01am on 13 March, 25pc reciprocal tariffs on an additional C$29.8bn of imports from the US will be put into place, Canada's finance minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday. This includes C$12.6bn on steel products, C$3bn on aluminum products, and C$14.2bn on additional imported US goods.

The list of additional goods includes computers, sports equipment, cast iron products, among others.

US president Donald Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Canada, Mexico and all foreign countries, effective Wednesday.

LeBlanc said the government learned the US' tariffs would also be imposed on steel and aluminum content in "certain derivative products", which Canada is assessing and may impose further counter tariffs.

Resource-rich Canada supplies the US with about 70pc of its aluminum imports and about 23pc of its steel imports.

The US imported 3.9mn metric tonnes (t) of unwrought alloyed and primary aluminum in 2024, with 2.7mn t of that coming from Canada, according to Global Trade Tracker. For comparison, the US produced 670,000t domestically in 2024, data from the US Geological Survey shows.

The US imported about 25mn t of steel — including flat, long, pipe and tube — in 2024, with Canada supplying the most of any country at 6mn t, according to the US Department of Commerce. Brazil was the US' next largest foreign source at 4.1mn t while the EU and Mexico came in at 3.5mn t and 3.1mn t, respectively.

Canada's minister of innovation, science and industry, François-Philippe Champagne, LeBlanc, and Ontario premier Doug Ford will meet with US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington on 13 March to discuss an update to the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement.

"The conversation tomorrow will be around lowering the temperature and focusing on the process that President Trump setup," said LeBlanc. Canada's position is that Trump should respect the USMCA agreement that he signed, LeBlanc said.

The European Union is meanwhile preparing to retaliate against Trump's tariffs. The region will impose countermeasures of €26bn ($28bn), introduced in two stages starting on 1 April and then be fully in place on 13 April, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on X today.

"I've been telling my European colleagues that Canada is the canary in the coalmine," Canadian foreign affairs minister Melanie Joly said on Wednesday. "If the US can do this to us, their closest friend and ally, then nobody is safe."


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12/11/25

Australia’s MinRes, S Korea's Posco form lithium JV

Australia’s MinRes, S Korea's Posco form lithium JV

Sydney, 12 November (Argus) — Australian producer Mineral Resources (MinRes) has agreed to sell 30pc of its stake in the Wodgina and Mount Marion lithium mines in Western Australia (WA) to South Korean producer Posco for $765mn under a binding agreement. The deal does not include MinRes' dormant Bald Hill mine or exploration tenements in WA's Goldfields region, the company told investors in a call today. It is subject to approval from Australian regulator the Foreign Investment Review Board, which clears foreign purchases. Posco will also sign an offtake agreement for 30pc of MinRes' share of Wodgina and Mount Marion's spodumene output, MinRes said. The South Korean producer expects to eventually get 270,000 t/yr of spodumene under the deal, it said on 12 November. The Australian producer plans to ship 380,000-420,000t of spodumene out of the two mines on an equity basis over the 2025-26 financial year to 30 June. It currently runs Wodgina and Mount Marion as 50:50 joint ventures with US producer Albemarle and Chinese producer Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium, respectively. Albemarle and Jiangxi Ganfeng will keep their stakes in the two projects. MinRes and Posco have worked together before. Posco, US investor AMCI, and Chinese steelmaker Baosteel collectively own a 43pc stake in MinRes' 35mn t/yr Onslow iron project, which ramped up to capacity in August-October . Posco also has an existing lithium partnership with Australian producer PLS, formerly known as Pilbara Minerals. It runs a 43,000 t/yr lithium hydroxide plant in Gwangyang with the Australian miner. But the plant is facing challenges. The US government's removal of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies for electric vehicles in September cut demand for batteries and battery chemicals, PLS said on 24 October. The venture does not plan to run the plant at full capacity until lithium hydroxide demand rises, Posco said in August. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico industrial output extends declines in Sep


11/11/25
News
11/11/25

Mexico industrial output extends declines in Sep

Mexico City, 11 November (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell by 0.4pc in September from the prior month, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline, with construction again the main drag. The September drop in the industrial activity indicator (IMAI), reported Tuesday by statistics agency Inegi, followed revised declines of 0.3pc in August, 1.1pc in July and 0.4pc in June. The result missed growth forecasts of zero change by Mexican bank Banorte and 0.1pc by Banamex, marking a fourth straight downside surprise for analysts. Both banks had expected construction to turn positive in September, pointing to advances on major government infrastructure projects, including 3,000km (4,800 mi) of new passenger rail routes by 2030. The finance ministry's proposed 2026 budget allocates Ps536.8bn ($29bn) for priority infrastructure projects, up from Ps189bn in the 2025 budget. Instead, construction fell by 2.5pc, following declines of 2.4pc in August, 1pc in July and 0.8pc in June. Within construction, civil engineering fell by 3pc after a 6.2pc drop in August, the steepest decline since October 2022. The sharpest drop came in new building construction, falling by 3.2pc in September — the largest in four straight months of contraction. Manufacturing output edged 0.2pc higher, after a 0.1pc uptick in August, with only four of 21 categories expanding. Petroleum and coal-derived products led growth at 6.3pc, with textiles, machinery and electronics also positive. But the transportation equipment segment, including light vehicles, contracted by 1.5pc, extending declines to four months. Banorte noted that analysis of manufacturing data has been complicated by the lack of US industrial figures for September because of the government shutdown, though trade-balance data suggest a slowdown in exports and a possible buildup in inventories that likely moderated production. Trade uncertainty persists despite a new extension of US president Donald Trump's tariff increase on Mexican goods — to 30pc from 25pc — and the ongoing US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement review through mid-2026. The mining sector increased by 0.7pc in September after expanding by 0.3pc in August and 2.8pc in July. Oil and gas output rose by 0.5pc following a 0.1pc decline in August, in line with recent production trends . Non-hydrocarbon mining increased by 1.4pc after a 2.5pc drop in August, helped by firmer industrial metal prices. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico inflation eases to 3.57pc in October


10/11/25
News
10/11/25

Mexico inflation eases to 3.57pc in October

Mexico City, 10 November (Argus) — Mexico's inflation eased to an annual 3.57pc in October, driven by further deceleration in fruit and vegetable prices with core inflation holding steady. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 3.76pc in September, statistics agency Inegi said on 7 November, after accelerating from 3.51pc in July, which was the lowest annual headline inflation rate since December 2020. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held unchanged 4.28pc in October, was unchanged from September. This marked a sixth month above the 4pc level — the high-end of the central bank's target inflation range. Within core, consumer goods inflation eased to 4.12pc in October from 4.19pc in September, while services quickened to 4.44pc in October from 4.36pc in the previous month. The three largest contributors to CPI in October, as weighted by Inegi, were electricity rates — with the end of seasonal subsidies, single-family home prices and airfares, the latter two components falling under services. Non-core inflation decelerated in October to 1.18pc from 2.02pc in September, slowing again after a one-month acceleration and coming close to the 2025-low of 1.14pc set in July. Fruit and vegetable prices contracted by an annualized 10.27pc in October after a 4.86pc annual contraction in September, with produce prices much lower under this year's unusually favorable climate conditions compared to the elevated prices during last year's historic droughts. Annual energy inflation in October quickened to 1.07pc from 0.36pc in September, with 5.07pc annual inflation for electricity offset by a 1.2pc annual contraction for regular-grade gasoline. Energy prices continue to experience lower inflation after Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary price cap of Ps24/l ($4.93/USG) on gasoline, extending the policy for six months. The October CPI result was even with the median estimate in Citi Research's latest analyst survey. And with the result, Mexican bank Banorte is maintaining its end-2025 forecasts for headline and core inflation at 3.7pc and 4.3pc, respectively. Noting the central bank's quarter-point cut to its target interest rate on 6 November to 7.25pc and the October CPI data, Banorte said it expects cuts of similar magnitude in the December, February and March decisions, moving the target interest rate to 6.5pc. On a monthly basis, headline CPI sped up to 0.36pc in October compared to 0.23pc in September, in line with analyst expectations. Core prices accelerated to 0.29pc in October after a 0.33pc reading in September. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia shifts to lumps to keep iron ore prices firm


10/11/25
News
10/11/25

Australia shifts to lumps to keep iron ore prices firm

Sydney, 10 November (Argus) — Australian iron ore producers are maintaining their realised ore prices during a period of declining ore grades by shifting sales from iron ore fines to lumps. Four of the country's largest iron ore miners — BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Mineral Resources — have faced ore grade challenges over recent years. Fortescue in late-October announced plans to replace its 60pc Fe West Pilbara Fines product with a 55pc Fe ore product in the 2026-27 financial year to 30 June. Rio Tinto similarly adjusted the iron content specification of its Pilbara Blend ore from 61.6pc Fe to 60.8pc Fe in May. But Australian producers' reported iron ore prices have remained stable — relative to market prices — over the last year, partly because of their shift towards iron ore lumps over fines. Iron ore lumps tend to trade above similarly graded fines products, because they require less processing. Argus ' iron ore lump 62pc Fe cfr Qingdao price has traded $7.45/t-$12.40/t above its iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price. Rio Tinto Rio Tinto's SP10 fines sales — which comes from low-grade orebodies in Pilbara — rose by 37pc on the year over January-June, to 24mn t from 17mn t a year earlier, while its higher-grade Pilbara Blend fines sales fell by 16pc. But company's average, fob-basis realised iron ore price fell by just 1pc point — relative to Argus ' 62pc Fe fines cfr Qingdao price — from 90pc to 89pc, over the same period. Rio Tinto's average realised ore price held up because its lump sales rose on the year, while its fines sales fell ( see table ). Rio Tinto's shift towards lower-graded lumps over higher-graded fines continued over July-September, likely supporting its average realised ore price. Its iron ore lump sales rose by 3.7pc and its fines sales fell by 3.5pc over the same period, as it started selling downgraded Pilbara Blend products. Other companies have dealt with ore grade declines in similar ways. Mineral Resources Mineral Resources' ore from the Pilbara Hub complex had an average grade of 56.9pc Fe over July-September, down from 57.3pc a year earlier. Its share of lump sales, on the other hand, rose from 28pc to 37pc over the same period. Its lump share of sales previously rose over January-June ( see table ). Mineral Resources' rapid increase in lump sales fully offset its falling ore grade, lifting its average realised Pilbara Hub price to 98pc of Argus ' 58pc Fe fines cfr Qingdao over July-September 2025, from 93pc a year earlier. Even Australia's largest iron ore miner is maintaining its average realised ore price by increasing its lump sales. BHP BHP's typical ore grades have declined to below 62pc Fe over recent years, but its lump share of sales has grown quarter-over-quarter since July-September 2024. The company's lump shipments accounted for 32pc of its total shipments over July-September 2025, up from 30pc a year earlier. Its lump share of sales also rose over January-June ( see table ). The company's shift towards lumps over 2025 pushed up its average realised iron ore price by 5pc on the year over July-September, from $80.10/wet metric tonne (wmt) to $84.04/wmt, as Argus ' average iron ore fines 62pc Fe cfr Qingdao price rose 2pc on the year in the quarter. New mines Australian producers are also trying to hold up their realised prices and grades by developing new mines, both domestically and abroad. BHP's iron ore production growth over July-September came exclusively from its developing 65-67pc Fe Samarco project in Brazil. Rio Tinto is also developing a similarly graded Simandou mine in Guinea. Domestically, Rio Tinto has invested in a raft of Australian mine replacement and expansion projects. It will lift its production capacity by 130mn t/yr over time, though this will not translate into a production boost. The company plans to use its new mines to hold ore grades and production levels steady, as older mines close. Building new mines may be more sustainable than shifting towards lump sales. Australian producers' recent move towards lumps has not been exclusively driven by supply-side factors. Chinese steelmakers have begun to favour lower-grade lump products over recent months, partly because of concerns about sintering restrictions . But this is not guaranteed to continue, creating a need for higher grade ore. By Avinash Govind Iron Ore analysis Jan - June '25 Jan - June '24 Change (%) Rio Tinto Shipments Lumps (mn t) 40 37 7.0 Fines (mn t) 89 95 -6.3 Lump Share (%) 31 28 9.8 Fines Share (%) 69 72 -3.9 Rio Tinto Prices Average Realised Price ($/t) 90 106 -15 Argus' Average Realised Price ($/t) 100 118 -15 Average realised price, relative to Argus (%) 89 90 -0.6 Mineral Resources Shipments Lumps (mn t) 1.4 1.0 41 Fines (mn t) 3.4 2.8 21 Lump Share (%) 30 27 12 Fines Share (%) 70 73 -4 Average Realised Grade (%) 57 58 -1 BHP Shipments Lumps (mn t) 40 38 5.4 Fines (mn t) 87 84 3.4 Lump Share (%) 32 31 1.3 Fines Share (%) 68 69 -0.6 BHP, Rio Tinto, Mineral Resources, Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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W Australia announces low-CO2 steel support plan


10/11/25
News
10/11/25

W Australia announces low-CO2 steel support plan

Sydney, 10 November (Argus) — Western Australia's (WA) state government will buy low-emission steel from local producers to support the developing industry. The state has issued an expression of interest for offtake-ready low-emission steel products, it said today. WA's government will use the steel in infrastructure and government works projects, it added. The government has also announced plans to change procurement rules to favour local steelmakers. There is currently only one low-emission steel project in WA. Australian producer Green Steel of WA (GSWA) got approval to build an electric arc furnace-based mini mill in April. It will start building the plant in 2026 and produce 450,000 t/yr of rebar using scrap steel from 2027. WA's low-emission steelmaking effort has been focusing on hydrogen and natural gas-based direct reduction iron (DRI) and hot-briquetted iron (HBI) — rather than scrap-based EAF projects — over recent years. DRI and HBI are iron inputs into the steel production process. The WA government's new plan will create confidence in building out the state's green iron industry, Australian think tank the Superpower Institute said today. Australian state and federal governments have directly supported multiple WA-based HBI and DRI projects over the last year. WA's government invested A$75mn ($49mn) into Australian green iron consortium NeoSmelt — made up of five major metal and energy companies — in late-2024, to support a 30,000-40,000 t/yr DRI plant. The federal government similarly awarded NeoSmelt a A$19.8mn grant in June. It also created a A$1bn Green Iron Investment Fund to support early-stage projects in February. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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