Trump takes aim at state climate policies

Market: Coal, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
09/04/25

US president Donald Trump is threatening legal action against state climate and clean energy policies, a move that sent environmental markets sharply lower early Wednesday.

Trump on Tuesday directed the Department of Justice to consider taking action against any states and local laws that hamper the development or use of domestic energy resources, with a specific focus on climate-related policies.

US environmental markets stumbled in response to the president's executive order, with California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) for December 2025 delivery trading as low as $22.51/metric tonne on the Intercontinental Exchange and December 2025 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) CO2 allowances as low as $16/short ton, after being assessed Tuesday at $29.31/t and $21.52/st, respectively. California Low Carbon Fuel Standard futures on ICE also traded as low as $48/t, after going as high as $65.50/t Tuesday.

Fears about the Trump order also spilled into the renewable energy certificate (REC) markets. Vintage 2026 PJM Class I traded as low as $28/MWh on the exchange to start the session, but last traded at $33/MWh. Argus assessed the vintage at $34.60/MWh on Tuesday.

Trump's order specifically calls out California's cap-and-trade program, as well as "extortion laws" from New York and Vermont that seek to levy fees against fossil fuel companies for responsibility for historical GHG emissions. Such climate "superfund" laws are also being considered by a number of other states. But he also suggests state permitting decisions and other laws could be targeted as well.

His order suggests that many of these policies run afoul of the US Constitution by imposing "significant barriers" to trade and discriminating against out-of-state energy sources, or though "arbitrary or excessive" fines.

"These state laws and policies weaken our national security and devastate Americans by driving up energy costs for families coast-to-coast, despite some of these families not living for voting in states with these crippling policies," Trump said.

The president directed attorney general Pamela Bondi to report within 60 days on actions she has taken against state laws and to recommend any additional action by the White House or US Congress to stop enforcement of objectionable policies.

Trump unsuccessfully attempted to sever the link between the California and Quebec carbon markets during his first term, on the grounds that it violated federal authority to establish trade and other agreements with foreign entities under the US Constitution.

The office of California attorney general Rob Bonta (D) said it is reviewing Trump's order, and others he issued Tuesday that aim to bolster the use of coal-fired electricity.

"But this much is clear: the Trump Administration continues to attempt to gut federal environmental protections and put the country at risk of falling further behind in our fight against climate change and environmental harm," the office said. "The California Department of Justice remains committed to using the full force of the law and tools of this office to address the climate crisis head on and protect public health and welfare."

California earlier this year bolstered funding for its Department of Justice in anticipation of increased legal fights with the Trump administration.

New York officials also said they are considering their next steps. The state participates in RGGI and has a renewable energy mandate, but it is also developing an economy-wide carbon market.

"We are thoroughly reviewing the [executive order] to determine the potential impact to New Yorkers. The governor is committed to ensuring a clean, affordable and reliable energy grid in New York state," the office of governor Kathy Hochul (D) said.

By Michael Ball

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29/04/25

New Trinidad PM to seek access to Venezuelan gas

Kingston, 29 April (Argus) — Major LNG exporter Trinidad and Tobago's new government wants to open discussions with the administration of US president Donald Trump on access to natural gas fields on the border with Venezuela. United National Congress (UNC) party leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar will be the new prime minister of the Caribbean state of 1.5mn people after the party won Monday's general election, ending 10 years of administration by the People's National Congress (PNC) party of Stuart Young. The UNC won 26 seats in the 41-member assembly. "We will work with the Trump administration to see how the discussions with the Venezuelan government on the cross-border gas fields can be reopened," the UNC's energy spokesman David Lee said. Lee is expected to be appointed the energy minister. "We do not have any closed doors on this matter," Lee said. "We will directly engage the US so it will be confident in working with us on resolving our cross-border issues." Trinidad and Tobago's gas-short economy was set back earlier this month by the Trump government's revocation of licenses granted by the administration of former US president Joe Biden to Trinidad. The waivers exempted certain work to develop two gas fields that straddle the maritime border with Venezuela from US sanctions. Access to the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina gas fields is "vital" to reversing Trinidad's fall in gas production, Young said. Trinidad has been struggling to recover natural gas flow since November 2017, following a long slide from a peak of 4.3 Bcf/d in 2010. Gas output in 2024 was 2.53 Bcf/d, and the fall in output suppressed LNG, petrochemical and fertilizer production. Trinidad's 2024 LNG production of 16.7mn m³ was down by 4.6pc on 2023, according to the latest energy ministry data. The 11.8mn t/yr Atlantic liquefaction plant in southwestern Trinidad, which is majority owned by Shell and BP, is Trinidad's sole LNG producer. Crude production has also declined, moving from a peak of 144,400 b/d in 2005 to 50,854 b/d in 2024, according to the energy ministry. The decline in crude feedstock contributed to the 2018 shutdown of the state-owned 160,000 b/d Guaracara refinery. Young's administration failed at several attempts to engage foreign investors to reopen the plant. The government last month selected Nigerian privately owned oil and gas company Oando to lease and operate the refinery. But the incoming UNC administration will terminate negotiations with Oando to reopen the refinery and will seek new investors for the plant, the party said. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German participants argue against power zone split

29/04/25

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29/04/25

German participants argue against power zone split

London, 29 April (Argus) — German power market participants have spoken out against dividing the German bidding zone, citing lower market liquidity and investments in renewable energies. The statements come after European transmission system operators (TSOs) association Entso-E yesterday published its bidding zone review (BZR), which concluded that splitting Germany's bidding zone into five would be the most "economically efficient". Germany's four TSOs argued that a bidding zone split would restrict liquidity in the futures market and could increase costs in the balancing market because fewer providers in smaller markets would participate. Renewables operators would probably see lower revenues, which could increase the need for subsidies, the TSOs said. And the economic gains from a split — around 1pc of system costs in 2025 — are not "meaningful". The TSOs also questioned the "suitability" of the study, citing "outdated" data and an "incoherent" analysis period. They highlighted the fact that the study compiled data from 2019, while the implementation of a split would only be possible by 2030, meaning developments in the system — including grid and renewables expansion — were not taken into account. Renewables association BEE agreed, adding that the BZR ignored several "key aspects", such as grid security, market efficiency, stability and the impact on the energy transition. The association highlighted the importance of strong German market liquidity, which enables "functioning" long-term power trading that is "crucial" for all of Europe. Traders' association Energy Traders Germany concurred, stating that a liquid market benefits consumers and businesses, as well as power plant investors. And exchange EEX told Argus that investments in power plants, which rely on "long-term framework conditions", would probably drop if the bidding zone were split. In the event of a split, subsidies and other compensation measures for industrial actors would probably need to be increased, EEX added. "All in all, it would end up being more expensive," the exchange told Argus . And chemical industry association VCI said reorganising the market would open up a "mega construction site" that would drag on for many years and create market uncertainty. A bidding zone split would make industrially strong regions into "high-price zones", energy association BDEW and automotive association VDA said, weakening competitiveness and prosperity. Instead of dividing the bidding zone, the focus should be on accelerated expansion and digitalisation of grids, they argued. The likely-incoming German government has pledged to stick to a single bidding zone , while economic ministry BMWK last year also rejected a bidding zone split , citing the complexity of the change, the risks to the competitiveness of industry centres, and lower liquidity. Germany's changing power system In the BZR, Entso-E advises assessing "the impact of the change of key influencing factors between 2025 and a potential implementation date around 2030", including grid expansion, before reconfiguring bidding zones. Germany's power mix in 2024 was much changed from 2019. In 2019, solar and wind output made up just under a third of the mix at an average of 19GW. By 2024, their share had risen to just under 46pc, with output averaging 23GW. And owing to the government-mandated phase-out, nuclear generation's share of the mix fell to zero by 2024 from just under 14pc in 2019, when Germany had 9.5GW installed nuclear capacity, according to Fraunhofer ISE data. Meanwhile, the share of coal and lignite-fired output dropped by around 2.6 and 3.9 respective percentage points from 2019 to 6.3pc and 16.3pc in 2024. Around 2.8GW and 10.3GW of coal and lignite-fired capacity, respectively, was taken off the open market in 2019-24 as part of the country's coal phase-out, according to data from grid regulator Bnetza. But gas burn in 2024 was around 1GW up from 2019, climbing to just over 12pc of the mix against 8.7pc five years earlier. And Germany's mix is likely to become even more renewables-heavy in the following years as it is set to phase out a further 6GW of dispatchable capacity by the start of 2030. The coal and lignite phase-out deadline is set for 2038, although market participants have recently called the date into question, owing largely to delays to the long-awaited power plant strategy. Owing to rapid solar buildout, solar generation in 2030 could average 16.2GW, according to Argus calculations. This would be 9.2GW up from 2024. And while onshore wind expansion lags in comparison, generation in 2030 could average 16.6GW, which would be around 4GW up from last year. German grid expansion is progressing rapidly, with 1,400km of power lines approved last year, a record. The four main projects aiming to address poor north-south interconnectivity — namely the 4GW Suedlink, 4GW Suedostlink, 2GW A-Nord and 2GW Ultranet lines — are set to come on line between the end of 2026 and 2030. German demand in 2024 was around 4GW lower than in 2019, largely owing to slowing production in energy-intensive industries, which has declined since December 2021. Recent US tariffs on imports have triggered further economic insecurity in industry, while BMWK earlier this month said it expects industrial activity in the coming months to "weaken". While economic growth is expected to increase by 1pc next year, according to BMWK, demand is unlikely to recover to pre-Covid and pre-energy crisis levels unless conditions improve for energy-intensive industries. By John Horstmann and Bea Leverett DE power mix 2019 % DE power mix 2024 % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump return complicates climate talks: Cop 30 head

29/04/25

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29/04/25

Trump return complicates climate talks: Cop 30 head

New York, 29 April (Argus) — This year's UN Cop 30 climate talks will proceed with a key goal of scaling up climate finance, but US president Donald Trump's disruptive return to the White House has made efforts to reduce emissions more challenging, according to the Brazilian official leading the summit. Continuing the fight to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions "is going to be a slightly uphill battle, but I think it's the right one," Brazil climate secretary and Cop 30 president André Corrêa Do Lago said Tuesday at the BNEF Summit in New York City. "The international context could help a little more", Corrêa Do Lago said, drawing laughter from the audience. Trump moved quickly after beginning his second term to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, an exit that will formally take effect in January 2026. He has started to impede US development of renewable energy projects he sees as boondoggles, but he is facing challenges to his attempts to halt government funding and tax credits for the sector. It is unclear if the US will send a delegation to the Cop 30 summit this year, which is scheduled to take place in Belem, Brazil, in November. Corrêa Do Lago said that invitations have not yet been sent to prospective participants. He also made a distinction between the US government and others in the US, including state and businesses leaders, that have pledged to continue supporting GHG emissions reductions even as the Trump administration moves to boost oil and gas. Publicly, countries have not changed their tune on climate in response to the US policy shifts. But Corrêa Do Lago said that privately there are "some that say, ‘God, how am I going to convince my people that I have to try to lower emissions if the richest country in the world is not doing the same?'" Corrêa Do Lago said that this year's summit needs to focus less on technical negotiations over documents that might never be implemented as a result, and more about making an economic appeal for decarbonization and hosting more of a "Cop of solutions, a Cop of action". He reiterated the Brazilian government's goal of increasing climate financing for developing countries from the target set at Cop 29 of $300bn/yr by 2035 to the far higher target of $1.3 trillion/yr. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Canada’s Liberals win minority government

29/04/25

News

29/04/25

Canada’s Liberals win minority government

Calgary, 29 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party rode a wave of anti-US sentiment to victory in Monday's election, but fell just short of an elusive majority. The Liberals are on track to take 168 of the 343 seats in Parliament, according to Elections Canada, which said counting has carried over to today on account of a large voter turnout. If current levels hold, this will mark a six seat improvement for the Liberals over the 2021 election, but they will still require the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The Conservatives will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats. Despite the loss, the Conservatives made the largest gain of any party compared to the 2021 election, when they won 119 seats. Who will lead the Conservatives in Parliament is unclear, however, with current leader Pierre Poilievre losing his Ottawa seat to a Liberal candidate and being on the outside looking in for the first time in 20 years. Carney won his neighbouring seat handily, with the results indicative of which leader Canadians preferred to take on US president Donald Trump. The election was largely centered around trade and the economy which was brought to the forefront by Trump's tariffs and "51st state" rhetoric, turning the election into a two-horse race between the parties with the most realistic chances of forming a government. "President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen," said Carney in his victory speech. "We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons." Carney plans to sit with Trump to discuss the trade relationship between the two countries, but says Canada has "many, many other options" than the US to build prosperity. The Liberals garnered about 43.5pc of the popular vote while the Conservatives hit 41.4pc, according to preliminary results, each representing the highest for their respective parties since the 1980s. Liberal and Conservative gains came at the expense of the smaller New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloq Quebecois who may still hold influence in government despite suffering steep losses. The NDP are likely to end with seven seats, down from 25 in the 2021 election and below the 12 required for official party status in Parliament. The Bloq Quebecois, a regional party standing for sovereignty in Quebec, fell to 23 seats from 32 across the same time frame. The Liberals were propped up by the NDP since 2022 and may turn to the left-leaning party yet again to push legislation through. The NDP, nearly being wiped out, could hold the balance of power yet again but they will need to regroup after its leader also lost his seat. Carney admits Canada must build more infrastructure to both kickstart a lagging economy but also diversify its trade partners further beyond the US. The Conservatives agree more must be done and it is likely common ground could be found between the two parties to progress the export of energy, critical minerals and more. "We are going to build," said Carney. "Build, baby, build." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Spanish refineries, petchems restart after power outage

29/04/25

News

29/04/25

Spanish refineries, petchems restart after power outage

Madrid, 29 April (Argus) — Spanish oil companies Repsol and Moeve are restarting refineries and petrochemical plants after they were halted by a massive power cut across Spain and Portugal yesterday, 28 April. Power has returned to Repsol's five Spanish refineries, which have a combined 890,000 b/d of capacity, and its two petrochemicals plants in Tarragona and Puertollano, as well as Moeve's 464,000 b/d of refining capacity and two petrochemicals plants in southern Spain. Facilities are "restarting progressively" after power was restored from late on 28 April, according to the companies. They declined to say when they expect production to return to levels prior to the outages. A momentary and as-yet-unexplained drop in power supply on the Spanish electricity grid of over 10GW at around 12.30 CET (10:30 GMT) caused power cuts across most of Spain and Portugal yesterday, shutting down industrial complexes . The outage followed a localised and unexplained loss of power in Cartagena southern Spain on 22 April which shut down Repsol's 220,000 refinery for several days, the company confirmed. Portugal's Galp has not yet responded to requests for confirmation that its 226,000 b/d Sines refinery in southern Portugal halted yesterday, although one worker at the facility confirmed to Argus that the refinery is restarting now after a "total shutdown" following the power cut. BP said operations at its 108,000 b/d Castellon refinery in eastern Spain "have not been affected by the power outage" but the facility did "activate an emergency response plan" and is working "closely with local authorities to manage the situation." Spain's dominant oil product pipeline and storage operator Exolum, whose facilities connect refineries and ports, and deliver to service stations, said its infrastructure is working "normally" today after yesterday's disruption, adding that it managed to supply essential services and airports with fuel throughout the blackout. Repsol's 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery, which has limited hydrocracking capacity and no major petrochemicals units, took just two days to return to prior production levels after a power outage caused a total shutdown in 2016. Any recovery to normal functioning of a plant could take longer depending on the configuration of a particular refinery, whether any damage to units occurred and whether any petrochemical units were affected. Airport operations Aena — the firm that operates 48 Spanish airports — said that all airports in its network had fully resumed operations as of Tuesday morning. Airlines including Iberia, AirEuropa and Easyjet expect all flights to operate as scheduled today. The power outage halted operations at airports in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and southern France. Morocco's National Airports Office (Onda) announced that check-in and boarding procedures have been fully restored at all airports in the country. Around 500 flights were cancelled in Spain and Portugal, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, after deducting double-counted flights between the two countries. Lisbon airport was the worst hit, with 45pc of departures cancelled, as well as about 30pc of departures at Seville airport. Around 50 flights each were grounded at Madrid and Barcelona airports — Spain's busiest. By Jonathan Gleave and Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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