US EIA will not release international outlook in 2025

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
06/05/25

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) no longer expects to publish one of its major energy reports this year after losing some of its staff through President Donald Trump's efforts to downsize the federal workforce.

The EIA does not plan to publish its International Energy Outlook (IEA) — which models long-term global trends in energy supply and demand — this year because of a loss of staff responsible for producing the report, according to an internal email initially reported by the news outlet ProPublica. The EIA confirmed the authenticity of the email.

"At this point, you can assume that we will not be releasing the IEO this year," the EIA's Office of Energy Analysis assistant administrator Angelina LaRose wrote in the 16 April email. "This was a difficult decision based on the loss of key resources."

Oil and gas producers, traders, utility companies, federal regulators and foreign governments have come to rely on the data and models from the EIA, an independent agency within the US Department of Energy. The 2025 version of the IEO might still be published early next year, the EIA said.

The agency for now is focusing on trying to "preserve as much institutional knowledge as possible" with an "all hands-on deck" effort under which remaining staff will document models and procedures on long-term modeling, LaRose wrote in the email.

Trump and his administration have worked to cut the size of the government's workforce through voluntary buyouts and a process known as a reduction in force. The EIA has yet to say how many personnel it has lost, but about a third of the agency's 350 staffers have accepted voluntary buyouts, according to a person familiar with the situation. The White House last week proposed an 18pc budget cut for the non-nuclear portions of the Department of Energy, but has yet to say if it is seeking to cut spending at the EIA.

Last month, the EIA released its premier report, the Annual Energy Outlook, but omitted its traditional in-depth analysis. A technical issue on 1 May delayed the release of a key natural gas storage report by more than three hours, the EIA said.

By Chris Knight

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

22/06/25

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran: Update

Updates with remarks from President Donald Trump Washington, 21 June (Argus) — The US conducted air strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, President Donald Trump said Saturday evening. US bombers targeted the heavily fortified, underground facility at Fordow and sites at Natanz and Isfahan, Trump said on his social media platform. "The strikes were a spectacular military success," Trump said in a televised address Saturday night. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier." Trump waited until after the US planes had left Iranian airspace before making the announcement. Israel's air and missile strikes, underway since 13 June, had already targeted those three facilities, in addition to some domestic energy infrastructure and urban areas across Iran. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA on Friday warned of potential nuclear safety hazards from the ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and cautioned Israel against targeting Iran's Busherh nuclear power plant and a nuclear research laboratory in Tehran. Washington-based military experts assessed that only the US Air Force had the right type of munitions to destroy Fordow. Involving the US in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment for Trump's presidency. Trump in the past decade has often lambasted his predecessors for involving the US in costly and fruitless military adventures in the Middle East. But he has changed his tune since the beginning of Israel's offensive on Iran, claiming that eliminating Iran's nuclear program was worth the US involvement. Trump, in his televised address, referenced the US' killing of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 — the last time US and Iranian forces directly exchanged fire. Tehran's response at that time involved missile attacks on US bases in Iraq that wounded more than 100 US military personnel, but drew no heavy US retaliation. The markets will closely watch Tehran's reaction to the US air strikes. Even before the US bombing raids, Trump's public musings about a possible US role in Israel's campaign against Iran in the past week spurred the oil industry and shipping sectors to increase the risk premiums embedded in their calculations. Most immediately at stake are Iran's 2.5mn b/d of crude, condensate and products exports, which mostly head to China. Oil markets are also concerned about the risk of contagion if Israel and the US draw retaliatory attacks elsewhere in the Mideast Gulf or jeopardize shipping through the strait of Hormuz — the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran

22/06/25

News

22/06/25

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran

Washington, 21 June (Argus) — The US conducted air strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, President Donald Trump said Saturday evening. The US bombers targeted the heavily fortified, underground facility at Fordow and sites at Natanz and Isfahan, Trump said on his social media platform. He said he would make a televised address at 10pm ET Saturday "regarding our very successful military operation in Iran". "A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow," Trump said. Trump waited until after the US planes had left Iranian airspace before making the announcement. Israel's air and missile strikes, underway since 13 June, already targeted those three facilities, in addition to some domestic energy infrastructure and urban areas across Iran. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA on Friday warned of potential nuclear safety hazards from the ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and cautioned Israel against targeting Iran's Busherh nuclear power plant and a nuclear research laboratory in Tehran. Washington-based military experts assessed that only the US Air Force had the right type of munitions to destroy Fordow. Involving the US in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment for Trump's presidency. Trump in the past decade often lambasted his predecessors for involving the US in costly and fruitless military adventures in the Middle East. But he has changed his tune since the beginning of Israel's offensive on Iran, claiming that eliminating Iran's nuclear program was worth the US involvement. Trump's public musings about a possible US role in Israel's campaign against Iran in the past week spurred the oil industry and shipping sectors to increase the risk premiums embedded in their calculations. Trump since 13 June alternatively held out the prospect of diplomacy and discussed killing senior Iranian leaders. Even today, after the US air strikes, Trump posted that "NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!". The markets will closely watch Tehran's reaction to the US air strikes. Most immediately at stake are Iran's 2.5mn b/d of crude, condensate and products exports, which mostly head to China. Oil markets are also concerned about the risk of contagion if Israel and the US draw retaliatory attacks elsewhere in the Mideast Gulf or jeopardize shipping through the strait of Hormuz — the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Brazil's carbon market rulemaking could pick up

20/06/25

News

20/06/25

Brazil's carbon market rulemaking could pick up

Sao Paulo, 20 June (Argus) — Regulations required to put Brazil's regulated carbon emissions market into force have advanced slowly since congress passed legislation in late 2024, but this year may speed several key pieces. The government plans to gradually implement the market by 2030, even as it prepares to host the Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Para state in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon in November. So far this year, the working group responsible for issuing the regulations that will govern the new market has met 20 times. Participants in the working group include representatives from 10 government ministries, but the finance ministry is spearheading regulations. A first round should be ready by July, the ministry said this week. The working group could define several elements in coming weeks, including clarity regarding the creation of the new agency that will oversee this market. The law stipulates that this new entity have its own technical staff and be independent from the government. "We urgently need to know who is going to be in charge of this market," Guilherme Lefevre, the director of the Getulio Vargas Foundation's sustainability center said, adding that the market needs to have a strong regulator to have credibility. For the market to move forward, Brazil also needs to create a national system for monitoring, reporting, and verification of greenhouse gas emissions. "Brazil still does not have this system, which is fundamental for the development of the regulated carbon market," Lefevre said. This system will underpin the national emissions allocation plan, which will grant companies emission quotas, which can be traded. The law requires companies that emit over 10,000 metric tonnes (t) of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e/yr) to report their emissions and companies with over 25,0000 tCO2e/yr in emissions to participate in the cap-and-trade system that will go into effect when the new carbon market begins operating completely in 2030. "So far, roughly 600 companies have reported their emissions and a total of around 5,000 companies will need to do so to comply with the market requirements," Laura Albuquerque, chief climate officer at Future Climate consultancy said. She added that that while companies in some sectors, such as steel and pulp and paper are already more prepared for the market, others are behind and are working to understand the extent to which the new market represents a risk or an opportunity. The government is also in a race against time to show progress towards creating the new market ahead of the November Cop 30 meeting, when it plans to launch an initiative that will integrate the Brazilian carbon market with markets in the EU, China and California. The goal is to use this coalition of carbons markets as a test case for a future, global carbon market. Not a silver bullet While the creation of a regulated carbon market is an important element of Brazil's decarbonization efforts, it is only part of the plan to meet its emissions-reduction targets. Compared with other countries, industry represents a small share of total emissions. In 2023 — the most recent year with available data — non-agricultural industry only accounted for just 4pc of Brazil's total emissions. Still, because the law permits companies on the regulated market to purchase a share of their credits from the voluntary market, tropical forest protection and restoration projects will also benefit. With Cop 30 leadership pushing for the next gathering to put into effect what has been agreed at previous summits, Brazil will likely feel pressure to advance more quickly on his own initiatives. Brazil's CO2 equivalent emissions by sector, 2023 mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Iran’s refineries at risk in escalating conflict

20/06/25

News

20/06/25

Iran’s refineries at risk in escalating conflict

Iran would probably have to curtail products exports and turn to the import markets if its refineries are attacked, write Ieva Paldaviciute and Nader Itayim Dubai, 20 June (Argus) — Key oil and gas production and export facilities have stayed out of the firing line a week into the conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv, bringing a degree of relief to global markets. But the targeting of downstream assets by both sides has raised the spectre of looming domestic fuel shortages if the conflict endures. No Iranian crude refineries have been hit yet in the Israeli strikes that, for the most part, have focused on key military and nuclear-related infrastructure and personnel. But strikes on two gas processing facilities in the south of the country and two products storage facilities on the outskirts of Tehran suggest refineries, or condensate splitters, soon could be affected. Iran retaliated by attacking Israel's 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery on 15 June, damaging is power supply system. The plant initially continued crude processing while shutting some secondary units, but it fully halted operations on 17 June. Iran has nearly 2mn b/d of crude refining capacity spread across nine facilities, which rises to about 2.4mn b/d when including the 360,000 b/d Persian Gulf Star condensate splitter in Bandar Abbas, on the Mideast Gulf coast. This is up from below 1.9mn b/d a decade ago, after capacity additions at the 58,000 b/d Shiraz, 630,000 b/d Abadan and 220,000 b/d Tehran refineries, among others. Iran nevertheless has grappled with a severe products imbalance in recent years, driven primarily by a fast increase in its domestic fuel consumption. Although operations at all refineries remain unimpeded, the conflict has triggered a frenzy of fuel buying by Iranians, particularly in Tehran, with Israel warning residents to leave the city as it intensifies its bombing campaign. If any refining infrastructure is hit, Iran may quickly have to halt products exports to ensure that domestic supply can be met. Iran is a net exporter of fuel oil and naphtha, but its position as a gasoline and gasoil exporter has diminished in recent years owing to its fast-growing domestic demand. The reimposition of US sanctions on Iran by US president Donald Trump during his first term in 2018 and his "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran at the start of his second term in January have only added pressure to its products trade. Iranian naphtha is shipped mainly to the UAE, where it is used as a gasoline blendstock. Iran exported about 116,000 b/d of naphtha in January-May, data from consultancy FGE show, down by 12pc from its 2024 exports. Transfer news Iranian fuel oil typically makes its way to floating storage hubs in Asia-Pacific, often after multiple ship-to-ship transfers designed to obscure its origin. Some cargoes are then re-exported to China and bought by independent refiners as feedstock fuel. Fuel oil exports stood at 252,000 b/d in the first five months of this year, down from 264,000 b/d last year. Iran has had to turn to imports to bridge the gap between its gasoline production of about 660,000 b/d and average consumption of 780,000 b/d during the Iranian year to 20 March 2025, according to state-owned refiner NIORDC. Iran's diesel production has also been playing catch-up, with heavily subsidised consumption exacerbated by fuel smuggling to neighbouring countries. Iran still exported 42,000 b/d of diesel this year, according to FGE, but this is less than half of the 102,000 b/d it exported last year. The Haifa refinery is a key supplier to Israel's domestic market but it also exported about 12,000 b/d of diesel and gasoil, and 13,000 b/d of fuel oil in January-May, mostly to neighbouring countries in the Mediterranean. A prolonged shutdown could result in Israel turning to products imports, pressuring supply chains in the Mediterranean. Israel aims to restart the plant within weeks. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Pakistan loses EU GSP+ ethanol status

20/06/25

News

20/06/25

Pakistan loses EU GSP+ ethanol status

London, 20 June (Argus) — The European Commission today suspended Pakistan's Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) status for imports of ethanol. The removal is effective from today, 20 June. A request was lodged in May last year by France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Hungary and Poland, who sought to activate Article 30 of the GSP Regulation, arguing that ethanol coming from Pakistan since 2022 has "caused a serious disturbance to the Union ethanol market". Under Article 30, the commission can "adopt an implementing act in order to suspend the preferential arrangement in respect of the products concerned". Pakistan was granted GSP+ status in 2014, and this expired at the end of 2023. The status was temporarily extended until 2027. The GSP+ grants reduced-tariff or tariff-free access to the EU for vulnerable low- and lower- to middle-income countries that, according to the EU, "implement 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, protection of the environment and good governance". It fully removes custom duties on two-thirds of the bloc's tariff lines in Pakistan's case, including ethanol. Pakistan is a major supplier of industrial-grade ethanol to Europe, but it does not export fuel-grade ethanol. According to market participants, this is because production facilities in the country lack sustainability certifications such as the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) that are required for biofuels to qualify under the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) targets. Fuel-grade ethanol was not included in the bloc's measures. Several Pakistani market participants were hopeful the GSP+ status will remain in place, which has continued to support ethanol exports from the country to the EU ( see table ). But uncertainty has weighed on demand from Europe recently, suppliers said. A participant told Argus that Pakistani sellers may look to offer more into Africa to soften the drop in demand. Some European suppliers anticipated this outcome, and have already stopped importing from Pakistan. European renewable ethanol association ePure expressed concern about the decision to exclude fuel ethanol from the scope of the measures, noting this could open the door to unintended loopholes and weaken the overall effect of the safeguard efforts. By Evelina Lungu and Deborah Sun European ethanol imports from Pakistan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more