Biofuels investment to rise 13pc in 2025: IEA

Market: Biofuels, Natural gas
05/06/25

Global investment in biofuels is set to grow by 13pc in 2025 to more than $16bn, as part of a broader surge in low-emissions fuel spending, according to the IEA.

The IEA's World Energy Investment report projects a 30pc year-on-year increase in total investment in low-emissions fuels — including biofuels, biogases and low-emissions hydrogen — reaching nearly $25bn this year. This follows a 20pc rise in 2024.

But regional trends diverge. Europe leads in overall spending but is prioritising biogas over liquid biofuels such as biodiesel, ethanol and biogenic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The region accounted for 60pc of global biogas investment last year but lagged behind the US, China and Brazil in liquid biofuels.

The US and Brazil dominate biodiesel and ethanol investment. Their spending is several times higher than in Europe. Brazil's role is expected to expand further following its Fuels of the Future bill, which was signed into law last year.

The US is also driving growth in hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and SAF. It accounts for half of the 40pc projected increase in HVO and SAF output this year, which the IEA expects to reach 800,000 b/d. In 2024, the US made up 70pc of global SAF investment.

The IEA forecasts fossil fuel investment will decline in 2025 for the first time since 2020. This will lift the share of low-emissions fuels — including biofuels — in global energy investment, although they will still account for only around 3pc of the total.

By Simone Burgin

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23/06/25

Iran raises Hormuz closure threat after US strikes

Dubai, 23 June (Argus) — A senior Iranian lawmaker says parliament has concluded that the strait of Hormuz "should be closed" in response to US airstrikes on three nuclear sites early Sunday — a move that would severely disrupt global oil flows. Esmaeil Kowsari — a member of the national security and foreign policy commission, and a former high-ranking commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — told state-owned Press TV that lawmakers had reached a consensus that closure would be the appropriate response. Argus understands that while members of parliament were all in agreement, the issue was not formally put to a vote. Kowsari said the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council, Iran's top security body. His comments have drawn global attention as markets await Iran's response to the strikes, which US president Donald Trump ordered against nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The Fordow site is heavily fortified and located underground. The Natanz facility had already been targeted by Israeli strikes, prompting a series of retaliatory missile and drone exchanges between Iran and Israel. Iranian officials, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had repeatedly warned Washington that any direct military action would trigger a response causing "irreparable" harm to the US. . Variety of options The strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil transit route, with around 17mn b/d of crude and refined products — roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade — passing through it. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in past confrontations but has never followed through. It has, however, previously targeted or seized vessels transiting the waterway, prompting some shipowners to consider alternative routes. Closure of the strait is one of several retaliatory options regularly floated by Iranian political and military leaders. Others include military strikes on US bases across the Mideast Gulf. The US maintains installations in Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Asked whether closing the strait was under consideration, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi declined to confirm, saying only that "there are a variety of options available to us". Araqchi travelled to Moscow late on Sunday and is expected to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin on Monday. Moscow has condemned the US strikes. Ali Akbar Velayati, a long-time adviser to Khamenei, also issued a veiled threat to Washington, saying: "West Asia is not Greenland, and the strait of Hormuz is fundamentally different from the Panama Canal." The comment referenced earlier threats by Trump to assert US control over Greenland and the Panama Canal during the early days of his second term. US secretary of state Marco Rubio warned that any attempt by Iran to close the strait would be "a terrible mistake." "It's economic suicide for them if they do it, and we retain options to deal with that," he said. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US bombs nuclear sites in Iran: Update

22/06/25

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22/06/25

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran: Update

Updates with remarks from President Donald Trump Washington, 21 June (Argus) — The US conducted air strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, President Donald Trump said Saturday evening. US bombers targeted the heavily fortified, underground facility at Fordow and sites at Natanz and Isfahan, Trump said on his social media platform. "The strikes were a spectacular military success," Trump said in a televised address Saturday night. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier." Trump waited until after the US planes had left Iranian airspace before making the announcement. Israel's air and missile strikes, underway since 13 June, had already targeted those three facilities, in addition to some domestic energy infrastructure and urban areas across Iran. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA on Friday warned of potential nuclear safety hazards from the ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and cautioned Israel against targeting Iran's Busherh nuclear power plant and a nuclear research laboratory in Tehran. Washington-based military experts assessed that only the US Air Force had the right type of munitions to destroy Fordow. Involving the US in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment for Trump's presidency. Trump in the past decade has often lambasted his predecessors for involving the US in costly and fruitless military adventures in the Middle East. But he has changed his tune since the beginning of Israel's offensive on Iran, claiming that eliminating Iran's nuclear program was worth the US involvement. Trump, in his televised address, referenced the US' killing of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 — the last time US and Iranian forces directly exchanged fire. Tehran's response at that time involved missile attacks on US bases in Iraq that wounded more than 100 US military personnel, but drew no heavy US retaliation. The markets will closely watch Tehran's reaction to the US air strikes. Even before the US bombing raids, Trump's public musings about a possible US role in Israel's campaign against Iran in the past week spurred the oil industry and shipping sectors to increase the risk premiums embedded in their calculations. Most immediately at stake are Iran's 2.5mn b/d of crude, condensate and products exports, which mostly head to China. Oil markets are also concerned about the risk of contagion if Israel and the US draw retaliatory attacks elsewhere in the Mideast Gulf or jeopardize shipping through the strait of Hormuz — the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US bombs nuclear sites in Iran

22/06/25

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22/06/25

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran

Washington, 21 June (Argus) — The US conducted air strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, President Donald Trump said Saturday evening. The US bombers targeted the heavily fortified, underground facility at Fordow and sites at Natanz and Isfahan, Trump said on his social media platform. He said he would make a televised address at 10pm ET Saturday "regarding our very successful military operation in Iran". "A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow," Trump said. Trump waited until after the US planes had left Iranian airspace before making the announcement. Israel's air and missile strikes, underway since 13 June, already targeted those three facilities, in addition to some domestic energy infrastructure and urban areas across Iran. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA on Friday warned of potential nuclear safety hazards from the ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and cautioned Israel against targeting Iran's Busherh nuclear power plant and a nuclear research laboratory in Tehran. Washington-based military experts assessed that only the US Air Force had the right type of munitions to destroy Fordow. Involving the US in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment for Trump's presidency. Trump in the past decade often lambasted his predecessors for involving the US in costly and fruitless military adventures in the Middle East. But he has changed his tune since the beginning of Israel's offensive on Iran, claiming that eliminating Iran's nuclear program was worth the US involvement. Trump's public musings about a possible US role in Israel's campaign against Iran in the past week spurred the oil industry and shipping sectors to increase the risk premiums embedded in their calculations. Trump since 13 June alternatively held out the prospect of diplomacy and discussed killing senior Iranian leaders. Even today, after the US air strikes, Trump posted that "NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!". The markets will closely watch Tehran's reaction to the US air strikes. Most immediately at stake are Iran's 2.5mn b/d of crude, condensate and products exports, which mostly head to China. Oil markets are also concerned about the risk of contagion if Israel and the US draw retaliatory attacks elsewhere in the Mideast Gulf or jeopardize shipping through the strait of Hormuz — the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Algeria unveils encouraging bid round results

20/06/25

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20/06/25

Algeria unveils encouraging bid round results

Algiers aims to build further on its successful return to upstream licensing, writes Aydin Calik London, 20 June (Argus) — Algeria revealed the results of its first upstream licensing round in over a decade this week. The outcome is encouraging with five out of six blocks on offer awarded. Key winners include Italy's Eni, France's TotalEnergies and China's Sinopec, all of which are already present in the country. But Qatar's state-owned QatarEnergy (QE) marks a notable new entry (see table). The licensing round marks a huge milestone in the country's efforts to cultivate investment in its oil and gas sector, and is the first under an oil law that came into force in 2021. Mourad Beldjehem, president of upstream regulator Alnaft, tells Argus that the awards will lead to around $1bn of mainly exploration investments. Development spending would bring in much more. Algeria needs it. State-owned Sonatrach wants to capitalise on Europe's energy security challenges and replace some of the lost gas flows from Russia following the latter's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But this is a work in progress. Algeria's gas exports have been squeezed in recent years by natural decline at producing fields and strong domestic consumption. Gas output and exports fell by 7pc to 98.3bn m³ and 48.5bn m³, respectively, in 2024. Of the six onshore blocks on offer, the only one that was left unawarded was Grand M'Zaid , which contains a producing oil field. A source told Argus there was a bid for this block but it was not awarded because of a procedural issue. The other five contain undeveloped gas discoveries and lie close to existing facilities, potentially allowing tie-ins that could cut development costs and time. For example, Eni and Thai firm PTTEP's new Reggane II block is located close to the Touat gas field in the Ahnet basin. TotalEnergies and QE's Ahara block is within reach of the French major's TFT gas production facilities that lie in the Illizi basin. Beldjehem says the awards could unlock 20bn m³/yr of new gas production in the medium term — equal to about 40pc of current exports — with first output potentially on line within three years. And there could be more, with exploration drilling expected to start next year. The results are far better than the previous licensing round in 2014, which saw only four of 31 blocks awarded. But there is room for improvement. Ultimately, only seven bids came in for five blocks, despite 37 companies officially expressing interest. "I know where the problem was and we will fix that for the next one. We had a lot of lessons learned from this one," Beldjehem says. Another onshore bidding round is planned for the fourth quarter, and will offer 4-6 blocks. This will also be gas focused. "That is the demand today," Beldjehem adds. After this, three more rounds are planned each year up to 2028. Competitive advantage The time is ripe for an investment boom. European firms are refocusing on their traditional oil and gas businesses as climate-change-related shareholder concerns take a back seat. Algeria faces some tough regional competition, however, particularly from Libya, Egypt and the wider eastern Mediterranean. But its existing gas export potential into Europe, strong resource base and political stability should give it a significant competitive advantage over its neighbours. The licensing rounds are only one part of the country's plan to boost investment. Algeria has signed more than $8bn worth of bilateral upstream contracts with companies such as Eni, TotalEnergies and Occidental since 2021. But it must do more. Sonatrach is holding talks with several companies. The most important of those are with US firms ExxonMobil and Chevron over their potential entry into the country to explore its shale potential. If these contracts go through, they could lead to a substantial upgrade to Algeria's production outlook. Algeria licensing round results Block Bids Winners Block type Toual II 1 Zangas-Filada Gas Ahara 1 TotalEnergies-QatarEnergy Wet Gas Zerafa II 3 ZPEC Gas Guern El Guessa II 1 Sinopec Gas Reggane II 1 Eni-PTTEP Gas Grand M'Zaid 0 Not awarded Oil SOURCE: ALNAFT. Algeria gas infrastructure Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Pakistan loses EU GSP+ ethanol status

20/06/25

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20/06/25

Pakistan loses EU GSP+ ethanol status

London, 20 June (Argus) — The European Commission today suspended Pakistan's Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) status for imports of ethanol. The removal is effective from today, 20 June. A request was lodged in May last year by France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Hungary and Poland, who sought to activate Article 30 of the GSP Regulation, arguing that ethanol coming from Pakistan since 2022 has "caused a serious disturbance to the Union ethanol market". Under Article 30, the commission can "adopt an implementing act in order to suspend the preferential arrangement in respect of the products concerned". Pakistan was granted GSP+ status in 2014, and this expired at the end of 2023. The status was temporarily extended until 2027. The GSP+ grants reduced-tariff or tariff-free access to the EU for vulnerable low- and lower- to middle-income countries that, according to the EU, "implement 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, protection of the environment and good governance". It fully removes custom duties on two-thirds of the bloc's tariff lines in Pakistan's case, including ethanol. Pakistan is a major supplier of industrial-grade ethanol to Europe, but it does not export fuel-grade ethanol. According to market participants, this is because production facilities in the country lack sustainability certifications such as the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) that are required for biofuels to qualify under the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) targets. Fuel-grade ethanol was not included in the bloc's measures. Several Pakistani market participants were hopeful the GSP+ status will remain in place, which has continued to support ethanol exports from the country to the EU ( see table ). But uncertainty has weighed on demand from Europe recently, suppliers said. A participant told Argus that Pakistani sellers may look to offer more into Africa to soften the drop in demand. Some European suppliers anticipated this outcome, and have already stopped importing from Pakistan. European renewable ethanol association ePure expressed concern about the decision to exclude fuel ethanol from the scope of the measures, noting this could open the door to unintended loopholes and weaken the overall effect of the safeguard efforts. By Evelina Lungu and Deborah Sun European ethanol imports from Pakistan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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