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Poland wraps up CBAM changes with European Parliament

  • Market: Electricity, Emissions, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Metals
  • 18/06/25

Poland has concluded negotiations on behalf of EU member states with the European Parliament for a revised carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), ahead of handing over the bloc's six-month rotating presidency to Denmark at the end of June.

But Warsaw will not lead discussions on the EU's emissions cut target for 2040 and the bloc's updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris climate agreement.

Leading negotiations for EU states with parliament, Poland's deputy climate minister Krzysztof Bolesta said the revised CBAM would exempt 90pc of originally covered EU companies from reporting obligations, while 99pc of emissions embedded in imported products would remain covered.

The agreement on CBAM now has to be formally approved by parliament and EU ministers. Once published in the bloc's official journal, the revised CBAM text will exempt importers that do not exceed a new single mass-based threshold of 50 t/yr of imported goods.

Bolesta admitted that progress has been held up on concluding the EU's NDC during Warsaw's presidency of EU ministerial meetings. CBAM was also listed by Bolesta as one of the points for flexibility in discussions on the 2040 climate target, alongside carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris agreement, additional funding and flexibility between climate sub-targets.

At a meeting of environment ministers yesterday, Bolesta indicated that most states still favour the European Commission linking its submission of an EU NDC to the UN — which includes a 2035 emissions cut target — with the bloc's planned 2 July proposal for a 2040 EU climate target.

The CBAM yesterday contributed to delays in technical negotiations held in Bonn, Germany, for the UN Cop 30 climate conference in Brazil. The Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries, including countries such as Bolivia, China, Saudi Arabia, Cuba and Vietnam, had urged the need to address concerns "with climate change-related trade-restrictive unilateral measures".

Despite "very, very divergent views", EU member states agree that it "is absolutely urgent to come up with an NDC before the end of September", Bolesta said. The Polish presidency of the EU, chairing climate ministers' meetings, has advanced NDC work as much as possible in the absence of the commission's proposal to revise the bloc's climate law. "We really have only a couple of months to come up with something. What lacks in the NDC draft is now the headline target," Bolesta said.

Countries have not yet discussed the quality of Article 6 offsets, Bolesta added. "Everyone in the room realises that we need to be very stringent on what kind of offset will be let into the system," he said.

EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is "cautiously optimistic" that a landing ground can be found on the 2040 climate target. He called for more assertive climate diplomacy, as a large part of the problem lies outside Europe. For China, Hoekstra noted unfair trade practices and "serious" concerns about plans to build additional coal-fired plants. "It's a mixed bag. And we invite them to step up their ambition," he said.


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09/07/25

Japan’s crude steel output to fall in Jul-Sep: Meti

Japan’s crude steel output to fall in Jul-Sep: Meti

Tokyo, 9 July (Argus) — Japan's crude steel output is likely to fall in July-September from a year earlier because of persistently weak demand in both domestic and export markets, the country's trade and industry ministry (Meti) said. Meti expects output to drop by 2.3pc over the period to 20.1mn t, it said in its quarterly forecast released on 8 July. Output is likely to remain stable from April-June. The projected year-on-year output decline is the result of persistently weak demand from key domestic steel-consuming sectors, including automobiles and construction, Meti said. "The situation has not changed significantly from the previous quarter ", a Meti official told Argus . Demand for ordinary steel products from the automobile sector is forecast to increase by 1.9pc on the year to 2.4mn t in the quarter. But Meti characterised this as only a "slight increase", despite it being a higher year-on-year growth rate in comparison with other sectors. Meti had anticipated a strong rebound in the automobile sector, and consequently steel demand, after some car producers resumed operations. The auto manufacturers had suspended operations for up to six months in 2024 following alleged false reporting of safety tests results. Some car producers remain cautious about pushing to ramp up output, the Meti official told Argus , without naming any companies. This is because some carmakers are prioritising quality over quantity, Meti suggested, possibly to avoid a repeat of past safety scandals. Japan's largest domestic car producer Toyota was among those that halted production because of safety issues in mid-2024. Toyota said it has since focused on building a solid foundation for production to enhance safety and quality. Steel demand from the construction sector remains under pressure from a labour shortage and rising material costs, according to Meti. This is likely to cap ordinary steel demand from the sector at 3.9mn t, a similar output level to the same period last year. External markets Japan's steel exports are also projected to decline, with shipments expected to fall by 11.5pc on the year to 6.1mn t in July-September, Meti said. Meti attributed the drop to an influx of low-cost Chinese steel products, which continue to flood key export markets including southeast Asia. Japanese steel producers are reluctant to lower their selling prices to compete with cheaper, non-value-added items, the Meti official added. Meanwhile, the blanket 50pc tariff imposed by the US on imports of steel is unlikely to have a significant impact on domestic crude steel output, at least until September, the Meti official said. This is largely because many of the Japanese steel products imported by US customers cannot be easily replaced with domestic products, the Meti official said. Meti's optimism comes despite some Japanese steel producers struggling to maintain stable business with US clients following Washington's decision to double its sweeping import tariffs on steel to 50pc from 4 June. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australian liquid fuels policy to free up ACCUs: CEFC


09/07/25
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09/07/25

Australian liquid fuels policy to free up ACCUs: CEFC

Sydney, 9 July (Argus) — Annual demand for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) could be reduced by as much as 7.5mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2050 if Australia adopted policy changes to develop a low-carbon liquid fuels (LCLF) industry, according to a report this week. Encouraging companies to reduce direct scope 1 emissions through changes to the federal safeguard mechanism and/or voluntary adoption would drive the development of an Australian LCLF market and free up ACCUs for use in sectors that cannot achieve on-site decarbonisation due to technical challenges, state-owned green investment fund Clean Energy Finance (CEFC) said in a report authored by consultancy Deloitte . Under its central case scenario, which would involve constraining the use of carbon offsets, CEFC said that a 7bn litres/yr LCLF market could be created by 2050, abating up to 12mn t CO2e in 2040 and 20mn t CO2e in 2050 as a result. Annual ACCU demand across six sectors covered by the report — mining, aviation, rail, heavy freight, maritime, and construction — could be reduced by around 6.8mn t CO2e by 2050 in that case, to 2.4mn t CO2e/yr. Demand for ACCUs could reach as low as 1.7mn t CO2e by 2050 under an accelerated scenario, which would involve EU-style mandates for LCLF. Demand for ACCUs would be around 9.2mn t CO2e/yr under the base scenario, which assumes a market-led transition in which carbon prices remain low and LCLF demand is driven by a small group of customers willing to pay significant premiums to reduce their scope 3 emissions. 30pc cap under the safeguard mechanism The central case scenario assumes a hypothetical government intervention to cap the use of ACCUs under the safeguard mechanism at 30pc of the baseline for liquid fuel-related emissions. Currently, there is no limit to the number of ACCUs or safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) that facilities can use to manage their excess emissions under the scheme, but those that surrender carbon units equivalent to 30pc or more of their baselines need to publish a statement explaining why they have not undertaken more on-site abatement activities . The central case scenario also assumes the removal of baseline adjustments for trade-exposed baseline-adjusted facilities . Adopting a minimum 70pc direct on-site decarbonisation would trigger a positive supply-side response, driving significant technology deployment and competition between pathways and feedstocks, the CEFC said. Stakeholders claim that the current safeguard mechanism and ACCU pricing are not enough to drive early LCLF uptake, the report said. Policy intervention is needed to accelerate the bridging of the cost gap between the LCLF production cost and the ACCU price, which is currently not expected to happen until the 2040s, the report said. A market-led transition, on the other hand, would lead to greater pressure on the ACCU market, with up to 7.35mn t CO2e of ACCUs needed to meet demand in 2035 and 15.5mn t CO2e in 2050. ACCU supply reached an all-time high of 18.78mn in 2024 and is forecast at 19mn-24mn for 2025 . But the industry needs to boost future issuances to address an expected shift in the supply-demand balance within a few years . By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s 75MW Sodegaura biomass power plant starts up


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09/07/25

Japan’s 75MW Sodegaura biomass power plant starts up

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Heatwave eats into Japanese utilities’ LNG stocks


09/07/25
News
09/07/25

Heatwave eats into Japanese utilities’ LNG stocks

Osaka, 9 July (Argus) — LNG inventories at Japan's main power utilities fell for the second consecutive week during the week to 6 July, as hotter than normal weather boosted electricity demand for cooling and increased gas-fired generation. The utilities held 2mn t of LNG inventories on 6 July, down by 7pc from a week earlier and by 12pc from the recent high of 2.27mn t on 22 June, according to a weekly survey by the trade and industry ministry Meti. But the latest volume was almost in line with the 1.99mn t recorded for 7 July 2024. A large part of Japan has experienced unusually hot weather since the middle of June, with the country's environment ministry, together with the Japan Meteorological Agency, occasionally issuing heatstroke alerts. This boosted the country's power demand to an average of 113GW during the 30 June-6 July period, up by 10pc on the week and by 7pc from a year earlier, according to the Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operators (Occto). Firm electricity demand encouraged power producers to raise gas-fired output by 9.1pc on the week to an average of 36GW during the week to 6 July, the Occto data showed. Coal- and oil-fired generation also rose by 22pc to 31GW and 49pc to 1GW, respectively. Generation economics for Japan's gas-fired power plants improved with higher wholesale electricity prices, which was supported by stronger bidding demand. Margins from a 58pc-efficent gas-fired unit running on spot LNG averaged ¥2.82/kWh ($19.18/MWh) across 30 June-6 July, up from the previous week's ¥0.88/KWh, based on the ANEA — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — and Japan Electric Power Exchange' systemwide prices. The 58pc spark spread using oil-priced LNG supplies also rose by 35pc to an average of ¥3.90/kWh. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Paving Amazon road may spoil Brazil climate target


08/07/25
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08/07/25

Paving Amazon road may spoil Brazil climate target

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