News
10/07/25
Nigeria eyes 2mn b/d Opec+ quota for 2027
Vienna, 10 July (Argus) — Nigeria is hoping to win an increase of its Opec+
crude production target to 2mn b/d from 2027 in upcoming talks over updated
country capacities, the chief executive of state-owned NNPC, Bashir Ojulari,
said today. Nigeria's current crude quota is 1.5mn b/d, but Ojulari said current
production today is slightly below that at around 1.4mn b/d. Including around
250,000 b/d of liquids, that takes current oil output to around 1.65mn b/d, just
shy of the country's current oil production capacity. Argus estimated Nigeria's
crude output at just shy of 1.6mn b/d in May, the latest month for which
estimates are available, although that figure includes production of Nigerian
light sweet Agbami, which Nigeria itself classes as condensate. By 2027, NNPC is
targeting capacity of around 2.4mn b/d, and production of 2mn b/d, Ojulari said.
Of this production, around 1.7mn b/d will be crude and the 300,000 b/d balance,
condensate. And within three years, the company is aiming for production of 3mn
b/d, comprising crude output of 2.5mn b/d and condensate production of 500,000
b/d. Capacity will be around 3.5mn b/d. Nigeria's plans come as the Opec+ group
embarks on a new campaign to update and refresh each member country's maximum
sustainable production capacity, which would then be used to determine new
production baselines, or quotas, for members from which output targets for 2027
will be calculated. The Opec secretariat was in late May instructed by the
alliance to start developing a framework to present to the ministers at the next
full Opec+ ministerial conference on 30 November. Nigeria has on several
occasions in recent years attempted to request an upward revision to its Opec+
production baseline, the level from which production quotas are calculated, but
with no success. This was primarily due to the country largely failing to meet
even existing targets because of infrastructure and operational problems. But
with those issues now largely behind it, Nigeria is looking to make a renewed
attempt to argue its case to be allowed to produce more, particularly in light
of the significant additional oil refining capacity that the country has added,
and will add, over the coming 12-18 months. "We believe that with the increased
demand being created in-country, we are now in a better position to also seek
from Opec to increase our production quota," Ojulari said. Nigeria recently
commissioned the 600,000 b/d Dangote refinery while 500,000 b/d of modular
refining capacity that are at "different stages of progress", Ojulari said. "So
you can imagine, over the next two years, we will be talking of [additional]
refining capacity of around 1mn b/d of just Nigerian local consumption." At
present, Nigeria is having to adhere to an Opec+ crude quota of 1.5mn b/d which,
barring any change in policy over the coming months, is due to hold until the
end of 2026. Ojulari said he will be lobbying for a 25pc increase in the
production quota by 2027, and remains hopeful that this time Nigeria's request
will be granted. "What I want to have by 2027 is 2mn b/d; that is what we will
be asking," he said. "What the outcome of that conversation will be will depend
on how successful we are in our discussions and interactions. But that is what
we are gunning for." By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send
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