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Market risks grow as Trump threatens Iran: Update

  • Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 18/06/25

Updates with details throughout

The prospect of wider escalation in the Middle East if the US joins Israel's attacks on Iran is affecting marine insurance, freight and middle distillate prices, even though the flow of energy commodities out of the Mideast Gulf so far remains unfettered.

US president Donald Trump, in wide-ranging remarks throughout the day, hinted at a potential US role in Israel's bombing campaign against Iran. But he also suggested that a diplomatic solution is still possible, noting that he has yet to make a decision on whether to target Iran.

Trump told reporters at around 3:10pm ET that he would shortly convene another meeting with his top national security advisers to discuss US options.

Speaking from Tehran earlier in the day, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned of "irreparable damage" to the US if it joins the attacks.

Trump, in remarks to reporters at the White House this morning, said he presented an "ultimate ultimatum" to Tehran. And as for a potential US air raid on Iran, Trump said: "I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do."

Speaking from the Oval Office in the afternoon, Trump said, "I'd like to make a final decision one second before it's due."

Khamenei, in a televised address today, denounced Trump's "absurd, unacceptable rhetoric to openly demand that the Iranian people surrender to him". Iran will oppose any "imposed peace", Khamenei said.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is causing a surge in Europe-bound freight rates for medium range tankers loading in the US Gulf coast. Mideast Gulf middle distillate premiums are at multi-month highs. Additional War Risk Premiums in the Mideast Gulf could rise sharply in the coming days, as the number of insurance underwriters willing to commit at current levels appears to be shrinking.

Some LNG carriers that have held off from transiting the strait of Hormuz in recent days have since sailed through or have approached the strait, while no carriers loaded in the Mideast Gulf have slowed from sailing via the strait.

Few barriers to US participation

Domestically and internationally, there is no significant pushback against a potential US involvement.

But the isolationist wing of Republican politicians and media figures loyal to Trump, including former Fox New anchorman Tucker Carlson, is urging him to avoid involvement in an Israel-Iran war.

Trump's extensive commentary suggests a perceived need to push back on criticism of his sudden eagerness to involve the US in another war in the Middle East after years of lambasting his predecessors for having done so.

Trump told reporters this afternoon that "Carlson called and apologized the other day because he thought he said things that were a little too strong."

The argument Trump says he is trying to make is that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon may be worth a military intervention.

"I'm not looking to fight," Trump said. "But if it's a choice between fighting or having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do."

The US intelligence community assessed, most recently in April, that Iran has not restarted work on nuclear weapons despite building up enriched uranium stockpiles since 2018, when Trump terminated a functioning agreement that curbed that program.

"I've been saying for 20 years, maybe longer, that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump said today.

Mixed messages on talks

Trump claimed that Iran's government has reached out to him for a diplomatic solution and has expressed willingness to send a high-ranking official to the White House. The offer is "courageous", Trump said, but added, "I said it's very late to be talking."

Iran's mission to the UN subsequently denied a request for a meeting at the White House.

Iran after the Israeli attack canceled a round of talks scheduled to take place in Oman on 15 June.

Khamenei, in his remarks today, hinted at a "suspicion" that the US diplomatic approach had been part of Israel's preparation for military strikes. "Considering their recent remarks, this suspicion is growing stronger day by day," Khamenei said.

Trump said he began to consider the possibility of US military action in the immediate aftermath of the Israeli attack. "The first night was devastating, and it really knocked the one side off," Trump said.

Russian president Vladimir Putin reached out with an offer to mediate in the Israel-Iran conflict, Trump said. The conversation took place on 14 June, according to the Kremlin.

"I said, do me a favor, mediate your own," Trump said, referring to Russia's war in Ukraine. "Let's mediate Russia first. OK?"


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Saudi Arabia leads June Opec+ production increase


11/07/25
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11/07/25

Saudi Arabia leads June Opec+ production increase

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Regional oil production and oil exports through the strait were not affected during the Israel-Iran conflict during 13-24 June. China allocations rise Saudi Arabia's share of the Chinese crude market is increasing thanks to higher output and attractive term formula prices in recent months, with the August-loading allocation to China hitting a two-year high. Refiners in China are set to receive a collective 1.65mn b/d of August-loading Saudi crude, according to market sources. This is 130,000 b/d higher than their July allocations and appears to be the largest amount since September 2023, Argus estimates. The increase was driven by a higher allocation granted to one state-owned refiner, with other Chinese customers' allocations unchanged on the month. Aramco lifted its August formula prices to Asia-Pacific by 90¢-$1.30/bl from July, higher than expectations of a 50-80¢/bl rise based on the wider backwardation — prompt premiums to forward values — in Mideast Gulf benchmark Dubai crude last month. Most Saudi term grades still represented good value on a delivered China basis next to spot medium sweet crudes from the Atlantic basin despite the price hikes, participants in China said. This together with strong seasonal demand may have prompted refiners to keep their term nominations high. Buying interest in Saudi crude was strong elsewhere as well. One northeast Asian refiner said it had asked for and will receive slightly above its usual amount. Other refiners based in Asia-Pacific said they requested and will receive their usual volumes of August-loading Saudi term crude. Requests from European buyers were not significantly higher than usual, traders said. Two European refiners told Argus that they nominated and received their full contractual volumes for August. And demand from other refiners may also have been steady because of firm refining margins and summer demand. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Opec 9 22.20 21.46 21.96 +0.24 Non-Opec 9 12.90 12.81 12.86 +0.04 Total Opec+ 18 35.10 34.27 34.81 +0.29 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Saudi Arabia** 9.75 9.15 9.37 +0.38 Iraq 3.96 3.94 4.09 -0.13 Kuwait 2.43 2.43 2.47 -0.04 UAE 3.04 2.94 3.09 -0.05 Algeria 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.00 Nigeria 1.55 1.53 1.50 +0.05 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.25 0.27 0.28 -0.03 Gabon 0.24 0.22 0.17 +0.07 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06 0.07 -0.02 Opec 9 22.20 21.46 21.96 +0.24 Iran 3.37 3.42 na na Libya 1.34 1.37 na na Venezuela 0.96 0.98 na na Total Opec 12^ 27.87 27.23 na na *revised ** Saudi Arabia's supply to market in June was 9.35mn b/d †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Russia 9.02 8.98 9.16 -0.14 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.78 -0.02 Azerbaijan 0.46 0.47 0.55 -0.09 Kazakhstan 1.84 1.80 1.50 +0.34 Malaysia 0.37 0.37 0.40 -0.03 Bahrain 0.17 0.17 0.20 -0.03 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.17 0.15 0.12 +0.05 Total non-Opec 12.90 12.81 12.86 0.04 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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