Redundant steelmaking capacity is unlikely to be reduced by decarbonisation and market forces, given global fragmentation and the focus on resilient supply chains, Edwin Basson, director general of international industry organisation Worldsteel, told Argus this week.
"If you asked me five years ago, I would have said I suspect decarbonisation and market forces would have led to reductions in redundant capacities, but the few recent examples we've seen of nationalisation or re-nationalisation, quasi-nationalisation, will most likely see countries try to retain steelmaking capacity," Basson said on the sidelines of the Global Steel Dynamics Forum in New York.
There are several instances of governments becoming involved in the operation of troubled mills in Europe and the UK.
Basson said the industry's future direction depends on three main forces — environmental, employment and economic efficiency. In previous decades, economic efficiency was the main driver, allowing inefficient capacity to close or be modified. But the zeitgeist of reshoring, re-regionalisation and focus on employment has challenged this force, also contributing to the continued operation of surplus capacity that is not necessarily required by the market.
"The strength of this efficiency force has reduced the labour and the environmental force is receiving more prominence at the moment. The moment you put a national interest filter on top of all of this, then the efficiency force becomes of minimal importance," he said.
And there is limited room to consolidate producers in developed markets, such as the US and EU, given competition concerns, which also dampens cross-border consolidation to some extent. There is scope for consolidation in China, which is still behind the targets set by the government in the previous five-year plan — of 60pc of capacity being consolidated — and in smaller developing economies, shrinking the long tail of smaller producers.
Worldsteel forecasts that half of all steel will still be made in blast furnaces in about 20 years from now, despite the current focus on decarbonisation. There is insufficient scrap in the world for the whole industry to move away from blast furnaces and insufficient high-quality direct-reduced iron feed, Basson said.
In the EU, where decarbonisation is perhaps the most pressing issue as mills face mounting carbon taxes, the energy challenge is of particular significance. "There is a reason that Scandinavia is, at least in the EU, the home of very progressive decarbonisation producers," he said. "They have access to high-quality materials, direct-reduced iron and so forth, and access to high-quality sustainable energy that is not carbon-based. It's a very different story in other parts of northern Europe, where energy is a key question, and a different question again in the south, where it's energy and access to raw materials."
"There will be multiple pathways to decarbonise, depending on location, and Europe may soften its policies to enable existing production routes to remain a force for a number of years longer," he said.
Exponential breakthrough technologies related to the blast furnace could see emissions fall to a similar level as the gas-fed direct-reduced iron/electric arc furnace of 1.3-1.4t of carbon per tonne of steel.
