European antimony prices fell in the past week for the first time in almost a year owing to increased availability of offers and thin buying interest. But market participants do not expect any drastic falls as long as export restrictions from China remain in place.
European antimony prices fell today for the second consecutive session since July 2024, when prices began to rise owing to material shortages, primarily driven by China's export controls.
The Argus assessments for antimony regulus grade II and antimony trioxide moved down to $59,500-61,000/mt duty unpaid Rotterdam on June 24, from $60,000-61,000/mt the previous week.
Argus today launched new weekly cif Rotterdam antimony prices to increase transparency for further forward trade of larger volumes in this rapidly evolving market. Cif Rotterdam prices fell in the past week with some traders reporting a "sudden excess of material".
Antimony regulus grade II min 99.65pc Sb cif Rotterdam and antimony regulus Trioxide grade min 99.65pc Sb cif Rotterdam were assessed in parity today at $57,000-58,000/t.
More offers are coming from Myanmar and buyers also reported increased offers from Laos and Cambodia. These two latter countries are beginning operations to process their ore and concentrate reserves into metal instead of merely exporting the raw materials in response to a lack of global smelting capacity.
For now, Laos and Cambodia are starting to export small lots to Europe, around 10-15t per month, but volumes are expected to increase.
Spot trade from these suppliers faces challenges such as delays and disagreements over payment terms. "These producers are asking for prepayment, and we cannot do that," a trader in Europe said.
Even if volumes increase it could take years for new producers entering the metal market to fill the gap that China has left as the main global supplier of antimony.
Consequently, even if prices have started to soften in Europe, market participants still expect them to remain near to multi-year highs as long as China's export controls persist.
While restrictions have been eased on exports of other materials caught up in the US-China trade war, such as rare earths, sources believe that measures on antimony are unlikely to be relaxed.
In fact, restrictions to prevent smuggling are becoming more stringent. Relevant Chinese government departments held a meeting in Changsha, Hunan province, on 12 May, aiming to strengthen control over the entire supply chain of strategic mineral exports. Additionally, Beijing announced on 9 May that it would intensify crackdownson the smuggling of rare earths and critical minerals, including antimony.
This uncertainty and anti-smuggling enforcement have dampened buying appetite from Europe. Some traders are reluctant to handle any material from Asia because of concerns about potential smuggling.
