The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the Philippines' fuel ethanol market and imports to grow in 2025, but the country's biodiesel outlook remains unclear.
The Philippines' fuel ethanol consumption is expected to increase from 797mn litres in 2024 to 840mn l this year, rising in tandem with the USDA's gasoline consumption growth forecast of 5pc for 2025.
The Philippines has a 10pc ethanol blending mandate for road fuel, tying ethanol demand to gasoline consumption.
Car purchases rose by 9pc in 2024, the USDA said, while investments in the country's public transportation system have yet to yield results.
Reflecting the forecast increase in road fuel consumption, the USDA is predicting that fuel-grade ethanol imports will rise by 10pc to 450mnl in 2025. The relatively steep growth in imported fuel-grade ethanol is the result of limited ethanol feedstock in the country, it said.
The Philippines prioritises the use of domestic ethanol in road fuel blending. Fuel suppliers can only import ethanol at times of domestic shortages.
Domestic ethanol is produced from sugarcane and molasses, but a recent decline in available sugarcane land has supported sugarcane and molasses prices, pushing up the cost of ethanol. This has resulted in a slowdown in ethanol production growth because of narrower margins.
The USDA expects domestic ethanol production to increase at a relatively low rate of 2pc on the year in 2025 because of the feedstock limitations.
Sugarcane- and molasses-based ethanol have one of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction rates among commonly used first-generation or crop-based ethanol feedstocks such as corn.
The Philippines' mandate does not stipulate a definite GHG reduction requirement, leading to imports of predominately US corn-based ethanol, which is the most competitively priced in the market.
The affordability of US corn-based ethanol encourages a higher blend of ethanol in road fuel. The Philippines approved a voluntary E20 programme in June 2024 and the USDA expects to see higher uptake of this blend in the coming year.
Biodiesel
The USDA is forecasting that the Philippines' biodiesel production will hit 360mn l in 2025 should the country remain at B3. But it may increase by 50pc from 2024 to 400mn l this year should the B4 mandate be implemented.
The progress of the country's B4 programme remains uncertain after members of the national biofuel board (NBB) agreed on 29 May to pass a resolution to suspend the B4 and B5 implementation in 2025 and 2026 respectively.
The board cited the relatively high price of seaborne coconut oil as a reason to recalibrate the programme. The Philippines uses domestic coconut oil in its biodiesel production, but coconut oil prices have more than doubled from $1,100/t in 2024 to around $3,000/t in 2025, resulting in a halt to reconsider market economics.
The country's energy department has yet to issue an official advisory on the suspension of the B4 programme, leaving the market in limbo.
Sustainable aviation fuel
The Philippines has yet to publish a roadmap for its SAF mandate but has formed a SAF committee under the NBB.
The country's flag carrier Philippine Airlines announced a 1pc SAF target for 2026. Another local airline, Cebu Pacific, has started using SAF and signed an agreement with Finish SAF producer Neste in 2023.
The Philippines has yet to produce SAF but is evaluating the situation and considering the feasibility of different pathways.

