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Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff: Update

  • Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas
  • 09/07/25

Updates with comments from Brazil's vice president

US president Donald Trump is threatening to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil from 1 August, citing the ongoing trial of that country's former president, Jair Bolsonaro.

Trump's letter to Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, released on Wednesday, is one of the 22 that the US leader sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will be charging on imports from those countries.

But his letter to Brazil stands out for allegations of a "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro, who — much like Trump — disputed his electoral defeat and attempted to stay in office. Brazil's supreme court qualified Bolsonaro's actions in 2022 as an attempted coup, ordering him to stand trial.

Trump said he will impose the 50pc tariff because "in part to Brazil's insidious attacks on Free Elections and the Fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans". The latter is a reference to orders by judges in Brazil to suspend social media accounts for spreading "misinformation".

Trump separately said he would direct US trade authorities to launch an investigation of Brazil's treatment of US social media platforms — an action likely to result in additional tariffs.

Trump's letter to Lula also contains language similar to that included in letters sent to 21 other foreign leaders, accusing Brazil of unfair trade practices and suggesting that the only way to avoid payments of tariffs is if Brazilian companies "decide to build or manufacture product within the US".

The Trump administration since 5 April has been charging a 10pc extra "Liberation Day" tariff on most imports — energy commodities and critical minerals are exceptions — from Brazil and nearly every foreign trade partner. Trump on 9 April imposed even higher tariffs on key trading partners, only to delay them the same day until 9 July. On 7 July, Trump signed an executive order further delaying the implementation of higher rates until 12:01am ET (04:01 GMT) on 1 August.

Trump earlier this week threatened to impose 10pc tariffs on any country cooperating with the Brics group, which includes Brazil, China, Russia, India and South Africa. Lula hosted a Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro on 6-7 July.

Brazil vice president Geraldo Alckmin, speaking to reporters before Trump made public his letter to Lula, said: "I see no reason (for the US) to increase tariffs on Brazil." The US runs a trade surplus with Brazil, Alckmin said, adding that "the measure is unjust and will harm America's economy".

Trump has justified his "Liberation Day" tariffs by the need to cut the US trade deficit, but the punitive duties also affect imports from countries with which the US has a trade surplus.


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10/11/25

Cop: IMO pushes forward with carbon pricing

Cop: IMO pushes forward with carbon pricing

Belem, 10 November (Argus) — External politics rather than any failure of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) led to the delay in adopting a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pricing mechanism for global shipping, proposal supporters said on Monday. IMO members last month voted to delay the adoption of the Net-Zero Framework (NZF) by a year, despite some of those backing the delay previously supporting the carbon pricing system. The October gathering was "not a typical IMO" meeting, IMO secretary general Arsenio Dominguez said during a side event at the UN Cop 30 climate talks in Belem, Brazil. "We were affected by the global geopolitics that we all face right now. We're not immune to it," he said. Dominguez also sought to assure critics of the vote that the IMO is not backing down from the proposal, citing ongoing work to address some questions that member states raised during last month's meeting. "My message to you is very clear, don't judge IMO for what happened last October. Don't think that IMO stops there because we don't," he said. Dutch climate envoy Jaime de Bourbon Parme struck a similar tone, telling the audience that while the delay may give supporters a "sense of failure" very few countries last month argued the NZF should not be adopted. "I know the Netherlands and many other countries were ready to sign, however, the meeting went a very different direction," he said. While Dominguez and the Dutch prince did not single out any country for causing the delay, many NZF supporters have put the blame on the US. In the days leading up to the vote, the administration of US president Donald Trump threatened to retaliate against countries that back the proposal with measures such as visa restrictions, new port fees or sanctions on officials that sponsor "activist-driven" climate policies. The Trump administration "went outside the rules of engagement," said Andrew Forrest, non-executive chairman of Australian mining company Fortescue, calling US actions before the vote a form of "thuggery." By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EPA does not update court on biofuel timing: Correction


10/11/25
News
10/11/25

EPA does not update court on biofuel timing: Correction

Corrects government shutdown's impact on court deadlines, and updates with new information throughout. New York, 10 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration did not update a court on its timeline for finalizing new biofuel blend mandates, as a partial government shutdown slows down court cases and regulatory work. Biofuel groups Clean Fuels Alliance America and Growth Energy have repeatedly sued the administration over its delays, hoping that a court will require the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set new biofuel quotas before year-end. Judge Timothy Kelly of the US District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the administration to provide an update on its timeline by 7 November. But in a filing that evening, the biofuel groups said they had not heard back from government lawyers. No timing update was provided. "It is the understanding of Clean Fuels and Growth Energy that counsel for defendants may currently be furloughed," they told the court. Kelly ordered the update before the ongoing partial government shutdown began. The DC district court later said in a general order that it would give the government more time to respond across all civil cases because of the funding lapse. Government lawyers had previously warned courts that the shutdown would sideline critical officials and make it hard to meet deadlines. But the government's lack of response to biofuel groups in the case is still raising fears of more prolonged delays updating a program that is important for producers of ethanol, renewable diesel and other biofuels and is popular among powerful farm-state Trump allies in Congress. EPA told Argus it was reviewing comments on its plan to make oil companies offset past program exemptions and "continues to work on final regulations" to establish new blend mandates. In past cases over biofuel program deadlines, biofuel groups and federal officials have negotiated new timelines or judges have ordered EPA to act by a set date. Clean Fuels said it would continue to ask the DC court to expedite the case and require the agency to publish a final regulation by year-end. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy credits from those that do. The program is crucial for the production margins of ethanol, renewable diesel and other biofuels and is popular among powerful farm-state Trump allies in Congress. EPA — required by law to set new mandates 14 months in advance of a new year — is late setting new quotas for 2026 and 2027. Even before the shutdown, the Trump administration told the DC court that developing a complicated plan to offset the impact of small refinery exemptions meant it might not be able to finalize new blend mandates until next year . Biofuel advocates fear that further delays would mean less ambitious final quotas, another hurdle for biorefineries that have cut run rates this year and for farmers hurting from this year's tariff fights. EPA has indeed been more cautious in the past when finalizing retroactive mandates since oil companies have less notice on volumes they must bring to market. Lawyers and lobbyists who closely track the program have also told Argus that delays raise the chance that major program updates — like a plan to halve program credits for fuels made abroad or from foreign feedstocks — are at least pushed back. Oil refiners have argued the half-credit idea is illegal and questioned how EPA could roll out a new feedstock tracking system in a matter of weeks. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico inflation eases to 3.57pc in October


10/11/25
News
10/11/25

Mexico inflation eases to 3.57pc in October

Mexico City, 10 November (Argus) — Mexico's inflation eased to an annual 3.57pc in October, driven by further deceleration in fruit and vegetable prices with core inflation holding steady. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 3.76pc in September, statistics agency Inegi said on 7 November, after accelerating from 3.51pc in July, which was the lowest annual headline inflation rate since December 2020. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held unchanged 4.28pc in October, was unchanged from September. This marked a sixth month above the 4pc level — the high-end of the central bank's target inflation range. Within core, consumer goods inflation eased to 4.12pc in October from 4.19pc in September, while services quickened to 4.44pc in October from 4.36pc in the previous month. The three largest contributors to CPI in October, as weighted by Inegi, were electricity rates — with the end of seasonal subsidies, single-family home prices and airfares, the latter two components falling under services. Non-core inflation decelerated in October to 1.18pc from 2.02pc in September, slowing again after a one-month acceleration and coming close to the 2025-low of 1.14pc set in July. Fruit and vegetable prices contracted by an annualized 10.27pc in October after a 4.86pc annual contraction in September, with produce prices much lower under this year's unusually favorable climate conditions compared to the elevated prices during last year's historic droughts. Annual energy inflation in October quickened to 1.07pc from 0.36pc in September, with 5.07pc annual inflation for electricity offset by a 1.2pc annual contraction for regular-grade gasoline. Energy prices continue to experience lower inflation after Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary price cap of Ps24/l ($4.93/USG) on gasoline, extending the policy for six months. The October CPI result was even with the median estimate in Citi Research's latest analyst survey. And with the result, Mexican bank Banorte is maintaining its end-2025 forecasts for headline and core inflation at 3.7pc and 4.3pc, respectively. Noting the central bank's quarter-point cut to its target interest rate on 6 November to 7.25pc and the October CPI data, Banorte said it expects cuts of similar magnitude in the December, February and March decisions, moving the target interest rate to 6.5pc. On a monthly basis, headline CPI sped up to 0.36pc in October compared to 0.23pc in September, in line with analyst expectations. Core prices accelerated to 0.29pc in October after a 0.33pc reading in September. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Blending raises WTI quality concerns


10/11/25
News
10/11/25

Blending raises WTI quality concerns

Houston, 10 November (Argus) — Rising levels of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and corrosive additives are being blended into Permian light sweet WTI crude, prompting concerns about inconsistent quality in the absence of an agreed market standard. NGLs and other additives are being blended into WTI early in the production process as part of efforts to maintain profitability in the face of lower crude prices and rising production costs. But the higher NGL levels being blended upstream are increasingly causing problems downstream. One key problem is the lack of an acknowledged market standard for the amount of butane allowed in Permian WTI, participants heard at a Crude Oil Quality Association (COQA) meeting in San Antonio, Texas, in early October. Since NGLs occur naturally, it is also difficult to determine where the additional volumes are being introduced along the delivery line, conference participants heard. COQA efforts in the past led to industry adoption of light-end limits for Nymex-deliverable domestic crude and light sweet grade LLS. Elevated butane levels lighten a crude, but some refineries are not equipped to handle grades with a higher level of light-end yields, and this can lead to capacity bottlenecks at their processing units. Crude blended with NGLs can also take up more pipeline space relative to standard crude. Mercaptans — naturally occurring sulphur compounds — have also become a quality concern, although there is a lack of consensus on how the problem is arising. Mercaptans are harder to treat and remove than other impurities, pose corrosion risks and damage refinery catalysts. High mercaptan levels can make it harder to produce lighter products that meet quality specifications. The jet fuel produced can exceed the regulated maximum amount of sulphur. WTI volumes accepted in the North Sea Dated benchmark-setting process have a mercaptans limit of 75ppm. A US-wide standard has yet to be adopted, although some US pipelines from the Permian use the 75ppm limit to better align standards, including Plains' 600,000 b/d Epic and Phillips 66's 900,000 b/d Gray Oak to Corpus Christi lines. Plains recently informed shippers that it will charge a 50¢/bl premium if WTI mercaptans exceed the 75ppm limit on its lines. WTI intended for export also has to meet stricter quality specifications in relation to several metals and has an upper limit for Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), which can be affected by increased NGLs blending. Variability in gravity, sulphur, mercaptans, metals and RVP levels can undermine export demand for WTI. Zinc contamination Quality issues are not limited to WTI. Elevated zinc levels in offshore US Gulf medium sour Mars led to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve having to provide a crude loan to ExxonMobil. The problem also contributed to the widest discounts for Mars against Nymex-quality WTI since December. Chevron found that the quality problem was connected to the start-up of a new offshore well, but not before the contamination had disrupted trade. The Shell-operated Mars pipeline system comingles crude from a variety of deepwater US Gulf oil fields, which it carries into the Mars stream. Reports of unexpected wax content in onshore US crude also suggest that Uinta Basin crude is sometimes entering the onshore mix. Uinta Basin crude contains high levels of paraffin and is mostly transported by rail because otherwise it needs to be moved in heated pipelines. As crude prices soften, Permian wells mature and drilling shifts to less optimal rock formations, some quality variability seems likely and blending may increase, which could present more problems for refiners in the future. By Amanda Smith and Mykah Briscoe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia shifts to lumps to keep iron ore prices firm


10/11/25
News
10/11/25

Australia shifts to lumps to keep iron ore prices firm

Sydney, 10 November (Argus) — Australian iron ore producers are maintaining their realised ore prices during a period of declining ore grades by shifting sales from iron ore fines to lumps. Four of the country's largest iron ore miners — BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Mineral Resources — have faced ore grade challenges over recent years. Fortescue in late-October announced plans to replace its 60pc Fe West Pilbara Fines product with a 55pc Fe ore product in the 2026-27 financial year to 30 June. Rio Tinto similarly adjusted the iron content specification of its Pilbara Blend ore from 61.6pc Fe to 60.8pc Fe in May. But Australian producers' reported iron ore prices have remained stable — relative to market prices — over the last year, partly because of their shift towards iron ore lumps over fines. Iron ore lumps tend to trade above similarly graded fines products, because they require less processing. Argus ' iron ore lump 62pc Fe cfr Qingdao price has traded $7.45/t-$12.40/t above its iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price. Rio Tinto Rio Tinto's SP10 fines sales — which comes from low-grade orebodies in Pilbara — rose by 37pc on the year over January-June, to 24mn t from 17mn t a year earlier, while its higher-grade Pilbara Blend fines sales fell by 16pc. But company's average, fob-basis realised iron ore price fell by just 1pc point — relative to Argus ' 62pc Fe fines cfr Qingdao price — from 90pc to 89pc, over the same period. Rio Tinto's average realised ore price held up because its lump sales rose on the year, while its fines sales fell ( see table ). Rio Tinto's shift towards lower-graded lumps over higher-graded fines continued over July-September, likely supporting its average realised ore price. Its iron ore lump sales rose by 3.7pc and its fines sales fell by 3.5pc over the same period, as it started selling downgraded Pilbara Blend products. Other companies have dealt with ore grade declines in similar ways. Mineral Resources Mineral Resources' ore from the Pilbara Hub complex had an average grade of 56.9pc Fe over July-September, down from 57.3pc a year earlier. Its share of lump sales, on the other hand, rose from 28pc to 37pc over the same period. Its lump share of sales previously rose over January-June ( see table ). Mineral Resources' rapid increase in lump sales fully offset its falling ore grade, lifting its average realised Pilbara Hub price to 98pc of Argus ' 58pc Fe fines cfr Qingdao over July-September 2025, from 93pc a year earlier. Even Australia's largest iron ore miner is maintaining its average realised ore price by increasing its lump sales. BHP BHP's typical ore grades have declined to below 62pc Fe over recent years, but its lump share of sales has grown quarter-over-quarter since July-September 2024. The company's lump shipments accounted for 32pc of its total shipments over July-September 2025, up from 30pc a year earlier. Its lump share of sales also rose over January-June ( see table ). The company's shift towards lumps over 2025 pushed up its average realised iron ore price by 5pc on the year over July-September, from $80.10/wet metric tonne (wmt) to $84.04/wmt, as Argus ' average iron ore fines 62pc Fe cfr Qingdao price rose 2pc on the year in the quarter. New mines Australian producers are also trying to hold up their realised prices and grades by developing new mines, both domestically and abroad. BHP's iron ore production growth over July-September came exclusively from its developing 65-67pc Fe Samarco project in Brazil. Rio Tinto is also developing a similarly graded Simandou mine in Guinea. Domestically, Rio Tinto has invested in a raft of Australian mine replacement and expansion projects. It will lift its production capacity by 130mn t/yr over time, though this will not translate into a production boost. The company plans to use its new mines to hold ore grades and production levels steady, as older mines close. Building new mines may be more sustainable than shifting towards lump sales. Australian producers' recent move towards lumps has not been exclusively driven by supply-side factors. Chinese steelmakers have begun to favour lower-grade lump products over recent months, partly because of concerns about sintering restrictions . But this is not guaranteed to continue, creating a need for higher grade ore. By Avinash Govind Iron Ore analysis Jan - June '25 Jan - June '24 Change (%) Rio Tinto Shipments Lumps (mn t) 40 37 7.0 Fines (mn t) 89 95 -6.3 Lump Share (%) 31 28 9.8 Fines Share (%) 69 72 -3.9 Rio Tinto Prices Average Realised Price ($/t) 90 106 -15 Argus' Average Realised Price ($/t) 100 118 -15 Average realised price, relative to Argus (%) 89 90 -0.6 Mineral Resources Shipments Lumps (mn t) 1.4 1.0 41 Fines (mn t) 3.4 2.8 21 Lump Share (%) 30 27 12 Fines Share (%) 70 73 -4 Average Realised Grade (%) 57 58 -1 BHP Shipments Lumps (mn t) 40 38 5.4 Fines (mn t) 87 84 3.4 Lump Share (%) 32 31 1.3 Fines Share (%) 68 69 -0.6 BHP, Rio Tinto, Mineral Resources, Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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