News
22/10/26
Italy nears gas liquidity service, gas cap for power
London, 22 October (Argus) — As energy regulator Arera is expected to rule
imminently on the implementation of the liquidity mechanism, market participants
question if it may have less of an impact on power prices than initially
envisaged, as well as how it will interact with a parallel proposal to cap gas
prices for power generators. The liquidity service is designed to flatten the
spread between prices at the Dutch TTF hub and Italy's PSV by compensating
selected firms for importing extra marginal volumes at Passo Gries on the border
with Switzerland. The entry point is one of Italy's main sources of marginal
supply, and the accumulation of entry-exit tariffs, as well as the regulatory
discontinuity caused by transit through Switzerland, has been viewed
historically as the root cause of the long-established PSV premium. The PSV
everyday price has been at a €2.16/MWh premium to the TTF so far this year.
Under the initial plan, presented in June by Arera, selected firms would pledge
to offer to the market a certain volume of supply, within a €0.50/MWh premium
cap to the TTF, or "volatility fee", set by the regulator. Participating firms
would be selected in advance by a competitive auction on the basis of their
requested fee for providing the service. A final decree implementing the service
is expected to be published imminently, after Arera concluded the relevant
discussions on 20 October. But there could be significant changes to the
mechanism's final form, according to market participants. Arera initially said
it would only apply the service to unbooked capacity limiting the service to the
German route through Switzerland. But some market participants reported that
Arera would extend the service to the French route as well, currently fully
booked, although another market participant said this was not correct. The
government has backed the scheme with €200mn, which according to Argus '
estimates would be enough for the mechanism to last no longer than 6-8 months.
But if the French route were included, it could exhaust the available budget
more quickly, limiting the impact of the mechanism to the first quarter, one
power trader said. A reduction in the PSV-TTF spread through the liquidity
service would also feed through to the power single national price (Pun), but
market participants expect the effect to be limited, cutting only a few €/MWh at
most on the power curve. Under the energy decree, Italy is also planning to
introduce a cap on gas prices for power generators to cut energy bills similar
to the one implemented by Spain and Portugal in 2022, known as the "Iberian
exception". Italy recently reached a preliminary agreement with the European
Commission to cap wholesale prices at about €60/MWh for at least one year
starting in January. The Pun has cleared at an average of €177.81/MWh so far
this year, but the implementation of the gas cap could cut prices by 20-25pc
compared with recent delivery prices, according to a power trader. This would
bring the Pun closer to but not below last year's delivery of €133.36/MWh over 1
January-23 October. But if the Pun falls, Italy could import less electricity
and burn more gas domestically, potentially supporting the PSV-TTF spread and
counteracting the desired effect of the liquidity service. Also, if thermal
generators were reimbursed against PSV, their net gas cost would remain at
€60/MWh regardless of prompt gas prices. Any PSV reduction from the liquidity
service would therefore cut reimbursement costs rather than lower the Pun,
reducing the benefit to consumers, Banco Energia analyst Claudio Savoldelli told
Argus . If reimbursement is linked to the TTF instead, the PSV-TTF spread would
remain in generators' fuel costs, and the liquidity service would continue to
pressure the Pun. "This is most relevant in the third quarter, when the spread
is around €2/MWh, implying a net gas cost closer to €62/MWh than €60/MWh,"
Savoldelli added. Market participants are sceptical that the liquidity service
and gas cap will be implemented in January, hence why the market appears to be
pricing in only a partial compression of prices. Any news of delays or potential
opposition from the commission would likely trigger a repricing of the first and
second quarters of 2027, according to market participants. The PSV-TTF January
basis market rose on Wednesday to +€1.40/MWh, up from +€1.23/MWh the previous
day, after the conclusion of Arera's discussions on 20 October was followed by
rumours of a delay to its start date, market participants told Argus . Similarly
on the power curve, January gained €9.50/MWh, rising faster than November and
December's respective €3.60/MWh and €3.80/MWh increases. By Ilenia Reale and
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