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Brazil's 2024-25 soy crop sales hit record

  • Market: Agriculture
  • 18/07/25

Brazilian farmers have traded a record volume of soybeans through the first half of 2025, based on a record production in the 2024-25 cycle that more than offset struggling progress in June.

Last month ended with almost 115mn metric tonnes (t) of the oilseed crop sold, according to estimates from market participants, up by 7mn t from May.

National supply company Conab projects that Brazil produced 169.5mn t in the 2024-25 season, which would surpass the prior record of 154.6mn t in the 2022-23 cycle.

But the record volume also ensures that there is still a considerable amount yet in farmer hands, with around 68pc of the total output traded by the end of June. The average for the period is 69pc, making this year's pace slightly delayed proportionally.

Producers have received little encouragement to advance sales over the past month because of no immediate need to push negotiations. A large portion of major agricultural bills — loans for inputs acquisitions and credit lines — were due at the end of May and led to a surge of deals then.

Now producers sell more occasionally, according to less-urgent needs to raise cash, such as inputs acquisitions for the 2025-26 crop, and following price surges. The US dollar weakened against the Brazilian real by almost 5pc in June thanks to global economic concerns, limiting their profits in negotiations, which are based on the US currency.

Brazil's soybean export season usually ends in August, and China — the world's largest importer — has met its short-term needs, according to market participants. That means that demand should remain low in August even if the US and China do not close an agreement over tariffs and Brazil takes more market share.

Market participants also estimate that most of Brazil's crushing industries are covered until mid-August and a few units in central-western Mato Grosso — Brazil's largest producing state — acquired the needed volumes until September, despite the recent raise of the biodiesel blending mandate to 15pc from 14pc.

The Brazilian sector is also pondering whether to anticipate end-year stoppages because of the falling crushing margins caused by a soymeal oversupply. That pressures soymeal prices down at the same time soy kept strengthening. This would further reduce demand. China also faces a similar problem because of ample soymeal stocks and halting operations could further hinder its imports.

Brazil has also forwardly sold by June approximately 18mn t of the upcoming 2025-26 soybean crop — which begins sowing in September and harvesting in January — according to market participants' projections, up by 2.5mn t from May. That is about 10.3pc of an expected production of 175mn t, based on the forecast from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Sales are still progressing slowly and lag the 20mn t traded a year prior for the 2024-25 crop. The average for the period is 20pc sold, according to market participants.

Lower prices, demand hinder corn sales

Brazilian farmers are still struggling to increase sales for the 2024-25 winter corn crop because of falling domestic prices and absent demand.

June ended with approximately 43mn t of the current crop sold, according to market participants. That is around 41pc of a record of 104.5mn t Conab projects for the season.

Sales grew by about 3mn t in June, slowing from the 5mn t sold in May instead of posting a seasonal pick-up as harvesting progresses.

Lower domestic prices are a major factor discouraging negotiations, leading to reports of recently harvested corn in Mato Grosso stored outdoors because of limited storage capacity. Losses also follow withdrawn domestic demand after a stronger presence in the first quarter. The corn ethanol and animal feed industries now wait for harvesting to progress before buying more product, having yet to receive previously purchased volumes.

The average price of 60kg bag in Mato Grosso's Rondonopolis and Sorriso cities reached R42.68/bag ($7.65/bag) in the week ended 26 June, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea, down by 45pc since 10 April, when demand began to weaken.

Field work is delayed because of excessive rainfall through June. But drier weather conditions in July allowed activities to accelerate over past weeks. Harvesting now is on track to peak in the second half of July and wrap in August as usual.

Producers say that the return of all-time high national corn demand later this cycle would support price gains further this year and encourage sales at a record pace, similar to the movement in the second half of 2024. Conab projects that Brazil will consume a record 90mn t in the 2024-25 season.


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