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Latest market news

Tariffs have limited impact on Brazil road fuels

  • Market: Oil products
  • 31/07/25

The additional 40pc tariffs on Brazilian imports, enacted by US President Donald Trump through an executive order signed Wednesday, are not expected to have a direct impact on the diesel and gasoline markets.

Market participants, however, are closely monitoring the escalation of tensions between Washington and Brasília and possible side effects.

Brazilian products had already been subject to a 10pc import tariff since April 5. The newly signed decree adds a 40pc rate for those imports, bringing the total tariff to 50pc as of August 6, when the new rule takes effect.

The executive order grants exemptions to around 700 products, including crude, silicon metal, pig iron, civil aircraft parts and components, metallurgical grade aluminum, tin ore, wood pulp, orange pulp and juice, precious metals and fertilizers.

Brazil does not export significant volumes of diesel to the US — which is why market participants expect the initial impact of the decree on the clean fuels sector to be limited.

Of the 465,730 m³ (16,210 b/d) of diesel exported by Brazil between January-June 2025, only 5 m³ were shipped to the US. In all of 2024, the US accounted for 2,841 m³ of the 1.022mn m³ of diesel exported from Brazilian ports, according to data from the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

Gasoline, on the other hand, has higher volumes registered. Of the 523,466 m³ exported by Brazil in the first half of 2025, 442,082 m³ were destined for the US. Last year, the country accounted for 1.803 mn m³, or 89.8pc of the total gasoline volume sold abroad by Brazilian refiners.

Possible retaliation risks

While Trump's executive order has limited effects on light fuel markets, importers and trading firms continue to closely monitor the deepening trade conflict between Washington and Brasília.

US diesel and gasoline production plays an important role in Brazil's fuel supply, with the country importing around 20pc of its diesel and just under 10pc of its gasoline annually.

Market participants fear potential retaliatory measures by the Brazilian government in response to the new US tariffs. However, there is broad consensus that the energy sector would likely be excluded from any reciprocal tariffs, as it was also left out of the Trump administration's current actions.

The US accounted for about 24pc of the 7.94 mn m³ of diesel that landed in Brazilian ports between January and June 2025. It is Brazil's second-largest diesel supplier, behind only Russia, which exported 4.87 mn m³ to Brazilian importers and distributors during the same period.

US Gulf regains ground

The US share of Brazilian diesel imports rose to 34.8pc last month, driven by a seasonal dip in the availability of non-sanctioned Russian product for Brazil. This was due to a combination of local refinery maintenance and increased demand from Turkey — a situation expected to repeat itself in July-August.

The recent increase in US Gulf diesel imports also comes amid growing concerns among major distributors over Trump's threats of "secondary sanctions" against Russia and its trading partners.

Wary of potential retaliatory actions, many Brazilian importers have begun seeking alternative supply sources to reduce exposure to the risks associated with dealing with Russian producers.

By Marcos Mortari

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19/12/25

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

19/12/25
News
19/12/25

Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

London, 19 December (Argus) — Paving activity may strengthen in some European and north African markets in 2026, but several others are expected to see continued declines in bitumen demand. Germany could lead any recovery, market participants said, as a new government plans to expand and maintain the road network. The country — once Europe's bitumen powerhouse — had a weak 2025, but paving work is expected to lift consumption from mid-2026. German bitumen demand has fallen by more than 20pc since 2021, while France and the UK are down by over 25pc in the same period. Budget constraints and high inflation drove these declines. Sweden, Norway and Denmark — already demand drivers in 2025 — could strengthen further in 2026. Road budgets are set to rise as governments prioritise infrastructure and the value of well-maintained highways, possibly linked to higher defence spending as Nato strengthens in Europe. North Africa has also drawn European Mediterranean surplus cargoes , and market participants expect demand from the region to increase next year, led by Algeria, Morocco and some Libyan consumption. Elsewhere, there is little cause for optimism. In France, most participants expect 2026 demand to be weaker than in 2025. With the government beset by regular upheaval and parlous public finances, road spending seems an unlikely priority. Several other northwest and central European countries will also see steady to lower bitumen consumption in 2026. Meanwhile, prospects for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remain slim, so a large upswing in Ukrainian import demand looks unlikely next year. Export opportunities outside Europe also appear limited, as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East remain well supplied and demand there stays slow. South Africa, now reliant on imports, is more likely to source from the Mideast Gulf or Pakistan than from the Mediterranean. The prospects of shipping product to the US could improve in the coming months, with Mediterranean bitumen values currently firm relative to crude and fuel oil. But large volumes seem unlikely. Some Mediterranean cargoes moved to the US last year, but the trend was short-lived. In the bitumen freight market, several new larger tankers will enter service in 2026, increasing vessel availability in what will still be a weak market. This could weigh on freight rates but help offset higher costs from the EU ETS scheme, which comes fully into effect in 2026 after its 2024 implementation. Bitumen prices fell in 2025 and are expected to stay under pressure through winter, before seasonal gains from March 2026. Markets should see greater strength relative to fuel oil in summer as bitumen demand typically rebounds then. Demand for bitumen was generally weaker across most European countries in 2025 than in 2024, weighing on prices. Budgets came under pressure and political challenges contributed to a lack of focus on infrastructure and road maintenance spending. Bitumen prices hit historic lows in 2025, partly offsetting inflation-driven increases in building, equipment and material costs. By Jonathan Weston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

18/12/25
News
18/12/25

Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japan's gasoline consumption will continue falling because of its decarbonisation drive, but the country's gasoline consumption is unlikely to reach zero as gasoline-powered cars and hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs) account for a vast majority of newly registered passenger cars. Japan's gasoline sales declined at least over 2016-24, with the exception of a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03pc in 2022, data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show. The country's gasoline sales totalled 330mn bl (904,100 b/d) in 2016, falling to below 280mn bl (767,100 b/d) in 2024. The country's transport sector accounted for 19.2pc of total CO2 emissions in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, according to Japan's environment ministry. Half of the transport sector's CO2 emissions came from gasoline in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Tokyo renewed its global warming countermeasures plan in February 2025, which reiterated its target of having all new car sales be "electrified vehicles" by 2035 and to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions through the vehicle lifecycle by 2050, in efforts to abate emissions. But these "electrified vehicles" do not only refer to fully electric-powered EVs nor fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) but also include gasoline-consuming HEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This means that Japanese passenger car owners will likely remain dependent on gasoline, even as gasoline consumption declines, given that Japan's preference for hybrids is likely to sustain its momentum for the foreseeable future. The country's gasoline requirement will fall by 2.4pc to 260mn bl (712,300 b/d) in the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year, compared with the 2025-26 level, based on Japan's trade and industry ministry Meti's outlook. This downtrend is expected to continue by declines of 2.1-2.5 pc/yr at least until 2029-30, largely because of higher fuel efficiency and wider use of HEVs, Meti said. The number of newly registered passenger cars, including imported cars, totalled slightly below 2.4mn units over January-November 2025, data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) show. Out of this total, gasoline-consuming HEVs accounted for 60pc, and gasoline cars hold a 32pc share. Gasoline-powered cars and HEVs have jointly accounted for around 90pc at least since 2020. The share of HEVs in newly registered cars has also grown consistently every year, from 37.1pc in 2020 to 61.1pc in 2024, mostly replacing the share of gasoline cars, while the share of EVs has stalled at 0.6-1.7pc of the total of registered units every year over the same period, data from the JADA show. "The hybrid trend is likely to remain strong going forward. Compared with the time when it seemed the global shift to EVs would happen decisively and rapidly, the momentum now appears to have slowed somewhat," Japan's trade and industry minister Ryosei Akazawa said at an interview with reporters, including Argus , in October. The shift towards EVs has not been as strong as expected, which could have benefited gasoline car makers. But US tariffs on Japanese automobiles likely eroded the profitability of Japanese automakers, with 15pc of their domestic car output exported to the US in 2024, according to Meti. The US tariff rate was lowered to 15pc from 27.5pc in September, but is still far higher than 2.5pc, the rate before US president Donald Trump's additional 25pc automobile tariff took effect in April. To support Japanese automakers given the challenging tariff environment, Tokyo could freeze its environmental performance tax — a levy of 0-3pc — imposed on car owners at the point of acquisition depending on automobile features, such as fuel efficiency. This move could pave the way for gasoline-powered vehicles to regain momentum or pose obstacles to the expansion of EV cars' market share in the coming years. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill

16/12/25
News
16/12/25

US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill

Washington, 16 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US House of Representatives have overcome an initial obstacle to passing a marquee permitting overhaul bill after committing to vote on key amendments that would strip out potential benefits for offshore wind. Republicans in the House voted 215-209 in a vote on Tuesday to approve a rule that will dictate the terms of debate for votes later this week on the SPEED Act, which has become the focus of bipartisan efforts to fast-track the permitting process for pipelines, electric transmission lines, railroads and other infrastructure. A group of far-right conservatives initially voted against the rule, but most reversed course during the vote in exchange for revisions that have yet to be made public. The Tuesday vote was one of the last remaining hurdles to House passage of the SPEED Act, which is expected to pick up some Democratic votes when it comes up for a final vote later this week. The House majority typically is responsible for putting up all the votes for a rule, meaning it would only take a few Republicans to block bill debate. Republicans were uncertain they would have enough votes for the rule, as far-right conservatives such as US representative Andy Harris (R-Maryland) and others were lobbying for changes. On Monday, US representative August Pfluger (R-Texas) urged attendees of a conference to put as "much effort as you possibly can" into persuading wavering Republicans to support the permitting bill. Pfluger is the chair of the Republican Study Commission, a caucus that represents a majority of House Republicans. "Go talk to them and let them know how important this is," Pfluger said during an event organized by the think tank the Conservative Coalition for Climate Solutions. Ahead of the vote, an industry coalition on Tuesday released a joint letter offering "strong support" for the bill. Among the signatories were the American Petroleum Institute, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Association of American Railroads and the US LNG Association. President Donald Trump has yet to take an explicit position on the SPEED Act, but administration officials are optimistic permitting legislation could be enacted. "I think we are at a time where the chance of a real permitting reform bill is higher maybe than it's ever been," US energy secretary Chris Wright said at the event on Monday. The SPEED Act would focus on the implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), a decades-old law that requires federal agencies to prepare environmental reviews of infrastructure projects. Pipeline companies and renewable energy developers alike blame the law for costly delays, both because of the time it takes for agencies to issue reviews and then the risks that permits will be thrown out because of lawsuits. The bill would narrow the scope of environmental reviews, aligning with a unanimous US Supreme Court ruling this summer. But the bill's most significant changes would make permits more durable. Even if a court found a NEPA review was flawed, the bill would keep permits intact during further analysis. And in a last-minute change, the bill would offer more permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals. That could protect pipeline permits such as the now-canceled Keystone XL pipeline, while also stopping Trump from halting more offshore wind projects. But the permit certainty language drew concern from far-right conservatives who oppose offshore wind. House Republicans in response agreed to vote on an amendment sponsored by Harris and others that would remove the "permit certainty" changes. Two other amendment votes also backed by Harris would stop expedited permitting treatment in the SPEED Act for offshore wind or any project that Trump has sought to block. Passage of those amendments could cost some Democratic support for the bill. Even if the bill passes, it is expected to be subject to major changes in the US Senate to attract enough support from Democrats to prevent a filibuster. Senate Democrats are hoping to insert language that would prevent what they describe as a "solar ban" being enforced by the Trump administration. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

16/12/25
News
16/12/25

EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

Adds details on credits, transport commissioner comment in paragraphs 4-6 Brussels, 16 December (Argus) — The European Commission has proposed a new 90pc cut in car fleet emissions by 2035, replacing the previously agreed 100pc target that would have effectively phased out the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles from that date The plan would allow some new ICE vehicles to remain on sale beyond 2035, alongside plug-in hybrids, range extenders and mild hybrids, as well as electric and hydrogen cars. The remaining 10pc of emissions would need to be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels or biofuels, according to the commission. The proposals need to be adopted by a majority in the European Parliament and among EU states. Automakers could also "bank and borrow" credits between 2030-32 to help meet the existing 2030 target of a 55pc cut from 2021 levels. Under the new proposals, manufacturers using these flexibilities would only need to achieve a 40pc fleet-average reduction, down from a previously planned 50pc. The commission indicated that credits for greenhouse gas (GHG) savings from e-fuels and biofuels can compensate up to 3pc of manufacturers' reference targets for 2035 and low-carbon steel credits can compensate for a further 7pc. Transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said the credit system will boost uptake of sustainable fuels. "This is a clear signal than other technologies than battery electric vehicles (BEV) can be put on the market after 2035," said Tzitzikostas. Expanded carbon-neutral criteria would allow sustainable biofuels to help meet the targets that currently require 0g/km from 2035. EU renewable ethanol group ePure said emissions from ethanol were 79pc lower than fossil fuels in 2024, in line with previous years. The European Biodiesel Board reported savings of 77-81pc for biodiesel, using the official fossil fuel comparator of 94g of CO2e/MJ. German MEP Peter Liese criticised the original ICE ban, but said industry problems stem from market shifts, not from Brussels. "The industry must stop shifting the blame for its own mistakes and for market developments, for example in China, onto Brussels," he said, adding that he will push for green steel recognition before 2035. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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