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Slow start for Ukraine's 2025-26 agri-exports

  • Market: Agriculture
  • 04/08/25

Ukraine's 2025-26 winter crop marketing year (July-June) has got off to a slow start, compared with a year earlier, because harvests of wheat, barley and rapeseed are lagging those of the previous season.

Overall exports also fell on the month in July because of lower shipments of corn towards the end of the 2024-25 corn season (October-September).

Ukraine exported 2.9mn t of grains, oilseeds and oilseed products in July, down from 3.1mn t in June and 4.9mn t a year earlier.

Shipments from the deep-sea ports of Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk fell to 2.5mn t last month, from 2.6mn t in June. This represented about 85pc of Ukraine's total agricultural exports, in line with the 85pc share a month earlier.

At the same time, agricultural exports from Ukraine's Danube river ports continued to stagnate, declining to 109,700t in July, from 116,400t in June. Their share of overall agricultural exports stayed at 4pc.

Grains

Ukraine exported 1.7mn t of grains in July, down from 2.1mn t in June and well below the 3.6mn t exported a year earlier (see chart).

Wheat exports amounted to 858,500t in the first month of 2025-26 (July-June), slightly up from 833,100t in June, but significantly down from 1.5mn t a year earlier. Egypt was the largest buyer of Ukrainian wheat, followed by Spain and Indonesia, according to customs export declarations.

Barley exports totalled 324,700t in July, just over half of the 634,700t exported a year earlier. China was the main destination for Ukrainian barley in the first month of 2025-26.

Ukraine's 2025 winter crop harvest continued to lag last year's pace because of unfavourable weather. Data from the agriculture ministry show that as of 31 July, only 11.4mn t of wheat and 3.6mn t of barley had been threshed from 3.1mn hectares (ha) and 1mn ha, respectively. This compares with 19.4mn t of wheat and 4.8mn t of barley collected from 4.5mn ha and 1.3mn ha, respectively, on 1 August 2024.

As for corn, exports declined to 550,200t, from 1.2mn t in June and 1.4mn t a year earlier. Turkey remained the largest recipient of Ukrainian corn in July, receiving 192,500t. Italy and the Netherlands were the next two largest destinations. Notably, 48,500t of corn was also exported to South Korea.

Ukraine's corn exports since the start of the 2024-25 marketing year (October-September) have reached 19.6mn t. Argus forecasts Ukraine's 2024-25 corn exports at 20.5mn t, below the latest US Department of Agriculture's projection of 22mn t.

Oilseeds

Ukraine exported 1.2mn t of oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals in July, up from 1mn t in June but below 1.3mn t a year earlier.

Rapeseed exports amounted to 136,800t in the first month of the 2025-26 marketing year (July-June), down sharply from 411,200t a year earlier (see chart).

Similar to wheat and barley, Ukrainian farmers had threshed only 1.8mn t of rapeseed from 781,900ha as of 31 July, compared with 3.2mn t from 1.1mn ha on 1 August 2024.

Ukrainian soybean exports remained strong in July, increasing to 377,500t from 292,500t in June and 220,600t a year earlier. The Netherlands was the largest buyer, followed by Turkey and Egypt.

Sunflower oil exports rose to 401,700t, from 360,400t in June, but were down from 434,800t a year earlier. India was the main destination, followed by Spain and the Netherlands.

Exports of sunflower meal fell to 204,700t in July, down from 315,100t in June and 238,100t a year earlier. China was the largest buyer, followed by Poland and Italy.

By Alexey Yeromin

Ukraine grain exports mn t

Ukraine oilseed, vegoil and meal exports t
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11/12/25

Commodity rail shippers push for more train data

Commodity rail shippers push for more train data

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — Industrial shippers of commodities like grain and petrochemicals want federal regulators to widen the scope of proposed rules that would require Class I railroads to report more data on their on-time service performance. US rail regulator the Surface Transportation Board (STB) in September put the industry on notice that it intends to issue rules to require that each of the six biggest railroads, including Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, report two new categories of performance data to the agency. The first would benchmark railroads' shipments against their original estimated time of arrival (OETA) and the second would measure "industry spot and pull" data, or ISP, to determine whether shipments are picked up and delivered within their planned service window. The board action aims to address rail shippers' long-running concerns that unpredictable rail service is a wild card in their supply chains, as many shippers rely nearly completely on rail to get their goods to market. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), an industry group that lobbies for US refiners and petrochemical manufacturers, applauded the STB for working to address "chronic freight rail service failures." The OETA is meant to track a carrier's targeted arrival time when it dispatches a cargo and then flag the percentage of weekly shipments that reach their destinations no later than 24 hours after an intended target, the STB said in its proposal. The AFPM, whose members include companies like Dow, Occidental Chemical and Ineos who collectively ship about 2.5mn carloads a year, said OETA data should be broken out by region, terminal, and corridor "to reveal localized bottlenecks often masked by system averages." As proposed, the STB's OETA measurement would apply to manifest train service, where trains haul an assortment of railcar types, and not to unit trains, which exclusively haul one railcar type or bulk commodity, such as coal, grain or crude. Grain shippers and the US Department of Agriculture disagreed with the STB's decision to exclude unit train shipments from the OETA measurement. The National Grain and Feed Association, whose members include Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge and other biofuels makers, said that late unit train deliveries of commodities like grain, ethanol or coal "can result in proportionally greater harm to the shipper/receiver" than smaller manifest shipments. The USDA agreed that unit train shipments should be included in the OETA measurement, and pointed out that about 75pc of US railed corn and soybean shipments in 2023 traveled in trains hauling more than 75 railcars, which would not be captured by manifest shipment data. Demand for agricultural products is highly seasonal, and missed delivery windows "can halt processing lines, disrupt export programs, and force shippers to carry excess private car inventory to buffer uncertainty," the agency said. The Association of American Railroads (AAR), which lobbies on behalf of Class I railroads, pushed back on industry requests to widen the OETA to include unit train shipments, and told the STB that several railroads do not currently generate the metrics. Adding the reporting requirements "would add regulatory burden, waste resources, and misrepresent service on the network," the AAR said. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US fuel groups eye compromise in E15 talks

10/12/25
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10/12/25

US fuel groups eye compromise in E15 talks

New York, 10 December (Argus) — Major US fuel groups agree on the framework for a bill that would authorize a higher ethanol blend in gasoline and revamp a separate program requiring biofuel blending. But there is more work ahead before a final deal can be reached, sources told Argus . The American Petroleum Institute withdrew support earlier this year for a slimmer bill allowing year-round sale of gasoline blends with 15pc ethanol (E15), kickstarting a new round of negotiations. The group has since been pitching the White House and biofuel groups on a larger bill that would both allow E15 and restrict small refiners' ability to skirt biofuel quotas. The oil group, ethanol advocates and fuel retailers last week publicly endorsed the general framework of a bill to allow year-round E15 and limit small refinery blending exemptions, and negotiations are ongoing. The issue has the attention of President Donald Trump, who asked a farmer at a White House event this week if E15 would be "a big deal". The US requires oil companies to annually blend biofuels, while allowing small refiners to seek hardship exemptions. Sales of ethanol blends above 10pc are limited in the summer due to smog rules. Whether the groups can compromise and persuade Congress to act will shape crop demand, biofuel production margins and retail fuel prices in the coming years. Past proposals to legalize E15 year-round, a longtime priority for the ethanol industry, have failed. The idea The American Petroleum Institute's pitch for reining in exemptions is to reduce the number of eligible companies and to make it harder for them to prove distress, according to five people familiar with the group's lobbying. A Trump administration plan that would require refiners without exemptions to blend more biofuels to compensate for refiners with exemptions has raised the stakes of the debate and riled larger oil companies. The oil group has floated restricting exemptions to companies with limited collective refining capacity, excluding larger enterprises like Delek that own multiple smaller units. The group has also proposed scrapping a Department of Energy hardship scoring system that has yielded unpredictable results over the years and that a 2022 Government Accountability Office study found was "critically flawed". Instead, refiners would have to prove that hardship stems directly from the biofuel program, and regulators could offer "proportional" exemptions based on the evidence, three of the people said. The US currently waives either all or half of the blend mandates for refiners that prove hardship. The Trump administration this year granted dozens of requests for exemptions from prior-year mandates, and more petitions are pending. More work ahead While these ideas address longstanding concerns from biofuel and crop groups that waivers curb demand for their products, the American Petroleum Institute also wants to permanently bar regulators from requiring other oil companies offset biofuel volumes lost to exemptions — a tougher sell in the Farm Belt. Another concern is timing. The American Petroleum Institute initially pushed for the exemption changes and ban on redistributing biofuel obligations to take effect next year. But some energy lobbyists want a delay until 2028, fearing that immediate changes could delay the Trump administration's work to finalize new biofuel blend mandates, three people said. New quotas for 2026 and 2027 are already late. Oil interests outside the American Petroleum Institute could also push back if negotiations advance. Refiners so far have been divided. Some want to protect their ability to win lucrative exemptions, while others have long taken issue with special rules for their competitors and hotly oppose Trump's plan to make them blend more biofuels to compensate. Even if the groups reach a deal, convincing Congress is its own challenge. An E15 proposal last year was pulled out of a larger spending package at the last minute , and farm-state lawmakers have been unsuccessful more recently in their efforts to add E15 to a defense bill. One option lobbyists have eyed is adding any new E15 agreement to legislation to fund the government after 30 January. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, said that it "continues to have serious discussions with multiple stakeholder groups and we are encouraged by the progress of those conversations". The American Petroleum Institute and ethanol industry group Growth Energy declined to comment. The Environmental Protection Agency said it is "committed to strengthening American energy security and supporting American farmers" but noted that changing rules around E15 and small refinery exemptions "requires an act of Congress". It is not clear how much more ethanol drivers would burn if the US permitted year-round E15. Most gas stations do not currently offer the blend, which advocates blame on regulatory hurdles deterring retailers from investing in new infrastructure. Rising vehicle fuel efficiency and electric vehicle sales have also cut into liquid fuel demand. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil inflation falls below ceiling in November

10/12/25
News
10/12/25

Brazil inflation falls below ceiling in November

Sao Paulo, 10 December (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 4.46pc in November, the first time it stands below the central bank's 4.5pc ceiling since September 2024, according to national statistics agency IBGE. Annualized inflation decelerated from 4.68pc in October and 5.17pc in September. On a monthly basis, inflation accelerated to 0.18pc in November from 0.09pc in October. Housing costs accelerated to an annual 6.54pc in November from 4.36pc in October. Power costs accelerated to 11.41pc in November from 3.11pc in October. Brazil maintained power tariffs at R4.46 (¢0.81)/100MWh in November, as below-average rainfall for the period partially hindered hydroelectric generation. Transportation costs decelerated to an annualized 3pc from 3.69pc in October. Motor fuel costs decelerated to 2.55pc in November from 2.72pc a month prior, with gasoline and diesel prices decelerating to 2.22pc and 2.01pc from 2.49pc and 2.11pc, respectively. Ethanol prices increased by 6.2pc in November, accelerating from 5.59pc a month earlier, while compressed natural gas costs further contracted by 4.86pc from a 4.28pc contraction in October. Airplane ticket costs decelerated to an annual 0.13pc in November from 9.75pc in October. Food and beverage costs decelerated to an annual 3.88pc from a 5.5pc increase in October. Soybean oil prices decelerated to 8.89pc in November from 17.41pc a month earlier. Brazil's target interest rate remained at 15pc in November. The central bank will likely keep it steady through year-end to push inflation closer to the government's main goal of 3pc. The bank's weekly Focus report — a forecast bulletin with market expectations for macroeconomic indicators — estimates a 4.4pc overall inflation rate for 2025. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Court asks US for update on biofuel quota timing

08/12/25
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08/12/25

Court asks US for update on biofuel quota timing

New York, 8 December (Argus) — A US court told President Donald Trump's administration today to provide an update within a week on its plans for finalizing long-delayed biofuel blend mandates. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must file an update "briefly detailing the agency's progress toward finalizing and promulgating the 2026 renewable fuel standards" within seven days, a three-judge panel on the US District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals ordered Monday. The court added that the government should provide "an estimated time frame for issuing those standards" if possible. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy credits from those that do. The Trump administration — after proposing major changes to how the program treats biofuel imports and exempts some small refiners — is now months behind schedule on finalizing new quotas. Agency decisions around the program are highly influential for biofuel production margins, crop demand and ultimately retail fuel prices. The Trump administration told a separate DC court in September that it expected to finalize new biofuel quotas "this winter 2025-2026", but that was before a partial government shutdown sidelined many federal workers. EPA was supposed to provide another update in November, but that court gave the government more time to respond in civil cases because of the funding lapse. The DC Circuit case involves a Delek refinery and an HF Sinclair refinery that argue they were unfairly deemed ineligible for exemptions from 2024 blend mandates because they processed too much crude the year before. They pushed for a quicker case, noting that the credits EPA could compensate them with will soon be worthless. EPA's current policy is to return credits to refiners that complied with past mandates but are given retroactive exemptions, but these credits can only be used the year they were generated or the subsequent compliance year. The Monday order notes that the DC Circuit is curious about EPA's progress since the timing of new biofuel mandates will impact the date when credits from 2024 expire. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US to roll out $12bn of farmer aid

08/12/25
News
08/12/25

US to roll out $12bn of farmer aid

Houston, 8 December (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today announced $12bn of aid payments to farmers to help offset the financial burdens of high-cost inputs and low crop prices. Trump today during a roundtable meeting at the White House said that he will leverage revenues collected from tariffs to secure $12bn worth of funding for farm assistance. Of the full aid package, $11bn will be used for the farmer bridge assistance (FBA) program, which provides broad relief to growers of corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops and grains, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Farmers who qualify for the FBA program can expect to receive payments by 28 February, with commodity-specific rates expected to be released by the end of this month. The remaining $1bn of bridge payments are reserved for commodities not covered under the FBA program such as specialty crops and sugar, according to the USDA. But details and a timeline of these payments were not immediately released. After the White House meeting, the USDA clarified that the $12bn in funds would be authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter (CCC) Act and administered by the Farm Service Agency. How funds authorized by the CCC are tied to tariff revenue was not immediately clear. The Argus NPK fertilizer affordability index has recovered from its lows earlier in the year, but remains at around 0.89 on 4 December, indicating lower crop prices relative to input costs. Front-month CBOT corn prices have increased by about 20¢/bushel since 1 October to $4.36/bushel on 8 December, while granular urea prices at Nola have declined by $46/st on a midpoint basis to $355.50/st fob Nola over the same period, according to Argus data. Market participants expect most of the aid to go toward paying down debt farmers have accumulated while operating on thin margins in recent years. The removal of fertilizer tariffs drove significant declines in phosphate, urea, and UAN prices, slightly easing input costs for growers. USDA expects 95mn acres of corn to be planted next year, so clearing debt could open the door for more borrowing and spring spending, depending on when these payouts arrive. The push to bolster domestic production to reduce reliance on fertilizer imports remains a key effort by the Trump administration to improve farmer profitability. Trump said he would even impose "very severe tariffs" on Canada if it was necessary to expand US production, but that would be a departure from administration trade policy that has so far exempted Canadian fertilizer imports, especially potash, from tariffs. Trump said he is willing to use tariff revenue again should farmers find they need additional relief. Calls for farmer aid have come from the Trump administration since as early as September this year, but were stalled by the partial shutdown of the US government and questions about how aid could be funded. By Sneha Kumar and Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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