North EU HRC futures volumes on the CME Group have already surpassed trade in January-September last year, according to Argus calculations.
Over 938,000t have traded so far this year until today, compared with around 924,000t over the first nine months of 2024.
Recent spot price increases — with expectations of curtailed import supply slightly offsetting continued demand weakness — stoked volume this week, with leading producer ArcelorMittal announcing another price increase.
More than 80,000t had traded this week alone, for a contract that averaged around 108,000 t/month in 2024.
More than 33,300t traded on 4 August and over 26,200t on Friday.
A 10,000t clip was done directly between a bank and another participant at €625/t for February today — derivatives market participants suggested other buyers would have to pay slightly more, with the first quarter trading around €635/t of late.
There was some trading by funds on August-September and September-October, according to brokers. September traded at €587/t for 5,000t, while September-October spreads traded at €22/t, with outright prices at €587/t and €609/t, respectively.
The curve has been in a constant contango of late, enabling importers to hedge purchases from overseas. The carbon border adjustment mechanism and potential other import constraints have played into the firmer curve in the first quarter.
Imported supply into the EU is already starting to contract and consolidate to some extent in response to previous policy measures, although there is an expectation they will increase in the fourth quarter as buyers try to book before January. As a result, mills have announced increases to around €600/t, with one eye on contractual talks for January-June 2026. But a number of large buyers still say they can procure at older prices close to €530-550/t delivered base.
By Colin Richardson
