Argus expects France to export 8mn t of wheat to countries outside the EU in the 2025-26 (July-June) marketing year, but challenging market conditions means that volumes sold for export are unlikely to rise beyond this, even as French wheat supply rebounds from a catastrophic harvest in 2024.
Argus expects France to end the current 2025-26 marketing year with 4mn t of wheat left over in stocks. This would be the highest wheat ending stocks in France for two decades. While Argus expects steady domestic demand and exports to countries within the bloc, exports to non-EU countries could struggle to reach the volume that the size of this year's harvest would otherwise allow. At 8mn t, France's exports outside the EU would still be the third-lowest in 10 years.
This is because demand for French wheat in particular has fallen because of the loss of France's wheat trade with Algeria since late-2024, and because of generally low demand from China, historically another major buyer of French wheat.
Exporters around the world this year face strong competition in the wheat market. Those in Europe are at a particular disadvantage from a weaker US dollar against the euro. Record harvests in Spain, Romania and Bulgaria have added further pressure to prices. In Russia, Argus projects 86.1mn t of wheat output this year, the third-largest in history, while Ukraine's crop is projected at 21.9mn t.
And favourable weather conditions in the southern hemisphere mean that wheat output in Australia and Argentina, coupled with ample beginning stocks, could also expand buyers' options in the global wheat market.
This means that ending stocks for 2025-26 among the world's top eight wheat exporting regions could reach an eight-year high at 69mn t, up by 5mn t on the year. Global supplies of corn are also ample. A record 412mn t corn crop forecast by Argus in the US is due to more than outweigh an expected drought-induced loss of 4mn t in the EU. Across the grains complex, the current imbalance between supply and demand means that prices are likely to need a strong reason — such as a surge in global demand, a prolonged lack of farmer selling, new volatility caused by geopolitical tensions or currency movements, or unfavourable weather ahead of next year's crop — to rise significantly.
The current global environment means that within France itself, farmers also face challenges. Argus calculates that wheat market prices are currently €30/t below the level at which the average French producer could cover their costs. This is based on Argus-assessed prices of €193.50/t cpt Rouen on a July basis — July basis excludes the theoretical costs of storing wheat accumulated since the harvest.
Argus in July projected this year's French wheat crop at 33.4mn t. The figure is slightly below the Olympic average — an average taken over five years that excludes the highest and lowest data points — for 2017-23 of 35mn t, but represents a sharp jump from 2024, when production fell to 25.6mn t.
