The US probably added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously reported, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today in its preliminary annual revision.
The annual benchmark revision was down by 0.6pc for the period, compared with an absolute average of 0.2pc of total nonfarm employment over the past 10 years. The preliminary revision is a preview to the final benchmark revision that will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January employment situation report.
Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that, with the revisions, payrolls rose at an average monthly pace of 73,000 in the 12 months through March, down from the current 149,000 estimate.
The preliminary revisions point to a labor market that was weaker than originally reported but they do little to increase probabilities that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut rates at its next meeting on 17 September. The CME FedWatch tool pointed Tuesday to a 91.8pc odds of a quarter-point cut next week, with 8.2pc odds of a half-point cut — a small change from 89.4pc odds of a quarter-point cut and 10.6pc odds of a half-point cut late Monday.
Still, the Fed is under mounting pressure from the White House to resume rate cuts next week after three cuts totalling 100 basis points late in 2024. President Donald Trump routinely belittles Fed chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates, and is trying to force out a Fed governor so he can name a loyalist to the spot.
The revisions reduce private employment by 880,000 jobs for the period, with manufacturing lower by 95,000; wholesale trade lower by 110,000; and retail trade lower by 126,000, according to BLS. Transportation and warehousing was higher by 6,600 than previously reported.
Leisure and hospitality was lower by 176,000 and professional and business services were lower by 158,000. Government employment was lower by 31,000 than previously reported.
The report on the preliminary revisions follows a series of weak labor reports. BLS reported last week that the US added only 22,000 jobs in August, with revisions showing 13,000 jobs were lost in June, the first job losses since 2020.
The July employment report, released on 1 August, showed job gains of 73,000 for the month, with downward revisions of more than a quarter million for the prior two months, the largest downward revisions in decades. That report prompted Trump to sack the commissioner of labor statistics, alleging that the data had been "manipulated for political purposes," without providing evidence.
