The US is "working with the Argentine government to end the tax holiday for commodity producers," according to an early morning social media post by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Bessent's post follows an announcement on Monday from Argentina's government suspending the collection of export taxes on grains, oilseeds and other agricultural products until 31 October, or until the value of export declarations reach $7bn, whichever comes first.
Following Monday's announcement, agriculture markets scrambled as Chinese buyers and Argentinian farmers sought to take advantage of the tax break, and global trade competitors cut offers to remain attractive.
Today's announcement injects a new level of uncertainty into the market. Bessent's comments have been taken as a serious indicator that the tax break could be brought to a premature end, with US Chicago Borad of Trade prices moving higher across all commodities immediately following the post. The US' offer to assist Argentina stabilize its persistent currency devaluation could prove to attractive to turn down.
However, the export tax break is viewed favorably by Argentina farmers, which have historically been a political base of support for Argentinian president Javier Milei. Disappointing these constituents could prove to politically risk, given Milei's recent political defeat in the Buenos Aires local election.

