Two-thirds of EU member states have already exceeded EU gas storage targets for 1 October-1 December, GIE transparency platform data show.
On the morning of 1 October, 12 countries had exceeded targets, factoring in derogations (see table). Of these, seven had stocks above 90pc of capacity, while the rest had complied with derogations.
EU states had a combined 940TWh in storage on Wednesday morning, or 82.5pc of capacity. Although net injections were the quickest for any September in the last three years, at 1.9 TWh/d, European inventories were 10 percentage points below this on 1 October in 2023 and 2024.
EU countries must comply with the fill target "at any point in time between 1 October and 1 December", according to amended regulation.
The headline target is set at 90pc of capacity, but derogations and flexibilities reduce this for some countries. In countries where storage capacity is high compared with consumption, the target can be 35pc of average annual consumption in the preceding five years. Member states can also be eligible for a lower target if gas supplied to countries outside of the EU in October-April 2016-21 exceeded 15TWh per year. The amended regulation introduced a reduction of up to five points if national production exceeds average annual consumption over the preceding two years or if the country has a slow-cycling storage site with capacity above 40TWh.
The regulation also allows for a deviation of up to 10 points from the 90pc target if "difficult conditions" limit the fill. The regulation lists "low seasonal price spread" as one possible difficult condition. Given that the summer 2025-winter 2025-26 spread was negative at many European hubs in winter 2024-25, it seems likely member states could use this derogation.
A member state wishing to use these flexibilities must consult the European Commission and "provide justification immediately".
Three countries might miss target
While three further countries are set to meet the target in the coming weeks, three others — Denmark, Croatia and Sweden — are on track to miss the 1 December deadline.
Stocks in Spain and Bulgaria were within the 10 point tolerance for difficult conditions on Wednesday, at 3.3 and 9.5 points respectively.
And the Netherlands was 3.5 points from its 74pc target, which the country is committed to meeting, the economy and green growth ministry told Argus on Wednesday. Firms net withdrew from Dutch storage in October last year, but assuming net injections in line with October 2023 at 147 GWh/d, stocks would exceed 74pc on 4 November.
Denmark had by far the lowest stocks in percentage terms on Wednesday morning — at 50pc. The country missed the 1 November EU target last year, with stocks at 75.1pc, way lower than the 5 point leeway at that time.
Denmark will probably miss the target this year too. Firms net injected 52.4 GWh/d on 24-30 September into Danish storage — one of the quickest seven-day rates this summer. Assuming this rate holds in October-November, Denmark would have 8.2TWh in storage, or 83.3pc of capacity, on 1 December, which is within the 10-point leeway. That said, the actual build may be much slower, as firms have net withdrawn in November in four of the last five years.
Assuming a repeat of net injections of 4 GWh/d in October-November last year, Danish stocks would edge up over the two months to 5.2TWh, or 52.7pc, on 1 December. That said, Danish production has ramped up this year, increasing security of supply and opening up space for net injections later into winter.
Croatian storage was at 76.2pc on Wednesday, holding 3.6TWh. Firms were net withdrawing from storage last month because of maintenance at the 2.3mn t/yr Krk LNG terminal. Krk is scheduled to come back on line in mid-October, operator LNG Hrvatska has told Argus.
Assuming firms continue with net withdrawals at September's rate until 15 October and then turn to net injections in line with October 2024 — before firms turned to net withdrawals in November — Croatian storage would be at 73.1pc of capacity on 1 December.
Sweden is also off track, but its technical storage capacity is 104GWh and domestic consumption is very low, totalling 8TWh in 2023, latest government data show.
Firms typically continue with net injections on average in October, and turn to net withdrawals the following month. That said, below-average minimum temperatures in October could stoke heating demand and limit how much gas is available to inject, prompting net withdrawals.
That had already happened in late September in several member states and accelerated on the last day of the month, when there were aggregate net withdrawals from EU storage for the first time since 8 April. Firms net withdrew 471GWh from EU storage on 30 September.
Minimum temperatures were forecast on Wednesday to hold below seasonal norms over the rest of the month in most European countries.
| EU storage targets compared with stockfill | ||
| Target factoring in EU derogations | 1 October stocks | |
| Austria | 30.4% | 84.9% |
| Belgium | 90.0% | 94.8% |
| Bulgaria | 90.0% | 80.5% |
| Croatia | 90.0% | 76.2% |
| Czechia | 62.9% | 92.7% |
| Denmark | 90.0% | 50.1% |
| France | 90.0% | 91.8% |
| Germany | 70.0%* | 76.7% |
| Hungary | 53.1% | 71.3% |
| Italy | 90.0% | 92.4% |
| Latvia | 13.7% | 55.9% |
| Netherlands | 74.0%** | 70.5% |
| Poland | 90.0% | 100.4% |
| Portugal | 90.0% | 97.0% |
| Romania | 90.0% | 94.5% |
| Slovakia | 48.0% | 74.2% |
| Spain | 90.0% | 86.7% |
| Sweden | 90.0% | 67.6% |
| * Figuve given by the German economy and climate ministry BMWK. ** Figure given by the Dutch ministry of economy and green growth. | ||
| — EU regulation, Argus' estimates, GIE | ||
