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US postpones Wyoming PRB coal lease sale

  • Market: Coal
  • 09/10/25

The US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has postponed an auction for the West Antelope III coal lease tract in Wyoming and is still processing an auction of southeast Montana land that occurred early this week.

BLM received one bid for the West Antelope III sale, but returned the offer before the auction was to take place on Wednesday because the response was less robust response than hoped, the US Interior Department said Thursday.

BLM is still processing the one bid it received in Monday's auction for leasing federal land near Navajo Transitional Energy Company's (NTEC) Spring Creek mine in Montana. NTEC bid about $186,500 for the Montana land, but Interior said the bid did not meet the requirements of the Federal Mineral Leasing Act. Interior was not more specific on that claim.

Interior declined to disclose financial details of the bid it received for the West Antelope III tract. It also did not name the bidder or specify a new date when BLM might hold the sale. The bidder most likely was NTEC, which asked BLM in July to initiate the lease auction process.

NTEC did not respond to requests for comment.

Both coal lease tracts are in the Powder River basin (PRB), the largest US coal-producing region, and have the potential for multiple years of production. The West Antelope III property is near NTEC's Antelope mine and has just over 3,500 acres estimated to hold 365mn short tons (st), or 331mn metric tonnes, of recoverable coal. The lease in Montana is for nearly 1,263 acres holding 167.5mn st of coal.

Interior said it "had hoped for stronger participation" and blamed the limited interest on policies of the previous Democratic presidential administrations of Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Those policies "aimed to dismantle domestic production and shake investor confidence in the industry", Interior said.


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17/11/25

Chile turning right in presidential elections

Chile turning right in presidential elections

Santiago, 16 November (Argus) — Far right Juan Antonio Kast and communist Jeannette Jara, who represents a coalition of left and centrist parties, got the most votes in Chile's presidential elections on Sunday and will face each other in a runoff on 14 December. Forecasts call for 59-year-old Kast, founder of the Republican Party of Chile, to comfortably beat 51-year-old Jara in the second round by picking up the votes of other rightwing candidates. Combined this would give Kast more than 50pc of the vote. Jara was chosen to run for president in a center-left primary and faced no real contenders on the left in the first round. With almost 78pc of polling stations counted, Jara led with 27pc of the votes against Kast's 24pc but far from the 50pc required to win outright. Concerns about rising crime and immigration have dominated the campaign. Kast promises an "emergency government" that would use physical barriers to shut the border to illegal immigrants, expel undocumented migrants and crack down on organized crime. He has attacked Jara, a former minister in leftwing President Gabriel Boric's government, for representing continuity to an unpopular government. Boric's approval rating is 30pc. Jara has tried to distance herself from the Boric government and raised the possibility of renouncing or suspending her communist party membership if elected. Populist Franco Parisi placed a surprising third with around 19pc of the votes, Johannes Kaiser who is to the right of Kast picked up 14pc and center-right former mayor Evelyn Matthei, once a front-runner, scraped 13pc. Jara's result is well below the 30pc ceiling her team expected and unlikely to provide sufficient momentum to win enough voters put off by the ultraconservative Kast who opposes abortion and same-sex marriage. An admirer of Chile's former authoritarian dictator Augusto Pinochet, Kast has promised to cut public spending by $6bn in 18 months — the equivalent to 1.7pc of GDP — and reduce corporate tax to 23pc from 27pc. Jara says she will boost the minimum wage, ease permitting and build Chile's green hydrogen potential and massive copper and lithium resources to attract foreign investment. She also promises to cut electricity rates by 20pc for the first 85kWh of consumption per month. The right's strong showing in the presidential election suggests it will also do well in the congressional elections for the chamber of deputies and half of the senate, with votes still being counted. Earlier polls suggested the right could win a majority in both houses. By Emily Russell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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South Korea finalises tighter emissions target for 2035


10/11/25
News
10/11/25

South Korea finalises tighter emissions target for 2035

London, 10 November (Argus) — South Korea has finalised its 2035 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target at 53-61pc from 2018 levels, its presidential committee on carbon neutrality and green growth approved today. The target is higher than the up to 60pc range proposed by its climate and energy ministry Mcee last week . The upper limit reflects IPCC guidance on the reductions to keep the temperature rise within 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels, while also considering the potential burden on future generations and domestic industry conditions, Democratic Party chief spokesperson Park Soo-hyun said. Following the updated goal, South Korea's GHG emissions would fall to 289.5mn-348.9mn t in 2035 from 742.3mn t in 2018. The power and transport sectors face the steepest reductions at 68.8-75.3pc and 60.2-62.8pc from 2018 levels, respectively. But the industry sector has been eased to 24.3-31pc, with additional support through transition finance, reflecting restructuring needs. Given power polices now set to be aligned with the new nationally determined contribution (NDC), the change is seen placing greater pressure on the power sector, not only in terms of emissions reductions but also in managing the transition and supply stability, market sources noted. The finalised NDC is set to be approved at a cabinet meeting tomorrow and presented at the UN Cop 30 summit in Brazil later this month. South Korea's next emission trading scheme (ETS) 2025-30 The South Korean government also confirmed the total emissions cap for the fourth phase of its emission trading scheme (ETS) at 2.5373bn t for 2025-30, 16.8pc lower than the previous phase. The government will raise paid allocation for the power sector to 50pc gradually by 2030 from the current 10pc — increasing to 15pc in 2026, 20pc in 2027, 30pc in 2028 and 40pc in 2029 — with the revenue directed to support corporate decarbonisation. In contrast, key export industries accounting for around 95pc of industrial emissions — including steel, petrochemicals, cement, refining, semiconductors and displays — will continue to receive 100pc free allocation, with only the remaining 5pc of industrial emissions seeing paid allocation rise from 10pc to 15pc. Government speeds up energy transition plan The decision is expected to accelerate South Korea's transition in its power mix, expanding the share of renewables in line with its 2040 coal phase-out plan. The country's government aims to increase renewable power capacity by up to 150GW by 2035, from 34GW last year. To support this, it plans to ease solar setback rules and accelerate wind project approvals. But grid bottlenecks , along with ongoing intermittency and cost challenges in solar and wind, remain key obstacles, potentially pushing the system marginal price (SMP) higher. A faster reduction in coal-fired output could also increase reliance on gas, which is relatively more expensive than coal, adding further pressure on the SMP. At the same time, some market participants cast doubt over the feasibility of the government's plan, saying it seems unrealistic at the current pace given grid congestion and permitting delays. Meanwhile, the new targets will be reflected in the country's 12th power supply plan, covering its renewable expansion and coal phase-out roadmap, climate and energy minister Kim Seong-hwan said. Despite the country's energy transition trends, coal still plays a crucial role in South Korea's power supply, accounting for around 27pc of electricity generation in January-August, more than twice the share of renewables — about 10pc of its total — over the same period, Argus data show. By Dayu Park South Korea power generation mix chart GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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TotalEnergies pushes peak oil demand back by a decade


04/11/25
News
04/11/25

TotalEnergies pushes peak oil demand back by a decade

London, 4 November (Argus) — TotalEnergies has pushed back the timing of peak oil demand in its latest Energy Outlook, with consumption now reaching its highest level in 2040 under the base-case ‘Trends' scenario — a decade later than previously modelled. In Trends, oil demand rises from 103mn b/d in 2024 to 107mn b/d in 2030, peaking at 108mn b/d in 2040 before gradually declining to 98mn b/d by 2050. The same scenario in last year's outlook had demand peaking at 108mn b/d in 2030 and falling to 93mn b/d by mid-century. Trends reflects the current policy and technology trajectory through to 2030, and assumes no major shifts thereafter. Under these conditions, rising consumption in India, the Middle East and other Asian economies offsets declines in Europe and China. Sectorally, aviation and petrochemicals drive much of the increase to 2040, while electric vehicle uptake contributes to the gradual decline beyond that point. Gas demand in the Trends scenario rises from an estimated 4.2 trillion m³ in 2024 to a peak of 4.63 trillion m³ in 2040, remaining near that level through to 2050. Oil, gas and coal still account for 60pc of global primary energy demand by 2050, down from 81pc in 2023. This energy mix would result in an estimated global temperature rise of 2.6–2.8°C by 2100 — above the Paris Agreement's target to keep warming well below 2°C. Last year's Trends scenario had a slightly lower increase of 2.6–2.7°C. TotalEnergies also outlines two alternative pathways. The ‘Momentum' scenario assumes OECD countries reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and China by 2060, resulting in a temperature rise of 2.2–2.4°C by 2100. The ‘Rupture' scenario — which would limit warming to below 2°C — requires significantly stronger global co-operation on decarbonisation, which "seems out of reach at present given the current state of geopolitical tensions", the company said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Alliance further lowers 2025 coal sales outlook


27/10/25
News
27/10/25

Alliance further lowers 2025 coal sales outlook

Houston, 27 October (Argus) — US coal producer Alliance Resource Partners further reduced its sales guidance for 2025 primarily because of mining setbacks and elevated production costs at some Appalachian operations. The company, which operates mines in Appalachia and the Illinois basin, now expects to ship around 32.5mn-33.3mn short tons (st)(29.5mn-30.2mn metric tonnes) of coal this year. The midpoint of the new guidance is about 500,000st lower than what Alliance had forecast in July. Most of the reduction in the sales outlook is for Alliance's Appalachian coal operations, where the Mettiki mine in West Virginia is confronting geological challenges. Alliance lowered its expectations for 2025 Appalachian coal sales to 7.5mn-7.75mn st from a previous 7.75mn-8.25mn st. It also is expecting production costs for the Appalachian segment to be higher this quarter than in the third quarter of 2025, according to company chief executive Joseph Craft. "We do believe that the Mettiki situation is tied to a specific geologic issue in the fourth quarter," Craft said. "Going forward, we do believe Appalachia is going to show very sustainable lower costs than what we've seen over the last several quarters." Mining conditions at Alliance's Tunnel Ridge mine, which also is in West Virginia, started to improve last quarter after miners moved longwall operations to a different section of the mine in July. The company expects improvements from that mine to continue this quarter. Alliance also tightened its Illinois basin 2025 sales outlook to 25mn-25.5mn st from the previously expected 25mn-25.75mn st. This still would be an increase from 2024's 24.8mn st of company coal sales from the basin. Alliance expects growth in Illinois basin coal sales and production after implementing automated longwall shield and shears at the Hamilton mine in Illinois immediately following the completion of its longwall move in early-August, Craft said. The company also opened a new portal facility at the Henderson County mine in western Kentucky in August. Henderson County is an expansion of Alliance's River View mining complex. Six units are scheduled to be operating at Henderson early next year and three units will continue to run at River View, according to Craft. During the third quarter, Alliance sold 8.7mn st of coal and produced a combined 8.4mn st, increasing by 3.9pc and 8.5pc, respectively, from a year earlier. The entire increase was from the Illinois basin, where sales climbed to 6.61mn st from 5.97mn st. Still, the company's average sales price fell by 7.5pc to $58.78/st for all of its coal production because many higher-priced contracts finalized during the supply shortage in 2022 expired at the end of last year, chief financial officer Cary Marshall said. Some additional higher-priced contracts for Appalachian coal are expiring at the end of this year, which could result in the company's average sales price per ton in 2026 being lower, executives said. But Alliance is expecting lower production costs and higher volumes from Appalachian mines. Overall, a strong cooling season and "a steady stream of domestic customer solicitations for long-term supply contracts" helped Alliance to boost its contracted position for this year and for 2026 during the third quarter, Marshall said. Last quarter, Alliance added around 500,000st to its book for 2025, bringing the volumes under contract for this year up to 32.8mn st as of 30 September. All but 3mn st of the coal under contract is being shipped to US customers. For 2026, the company has 27.5mn st of coal under contract to sell domestically and 1.6mn st to be shipped into the export market. That is up from committed volumes of 25.3mn st and 1.3mn st recorded at the end of June. Alliance expects its coal commitments to continue to grow beyond next year in response to projected demand from data center developments. Craft cited forecasts of up to 4pc-6pc/yr electricity demand growth in the PJM Interconnection and other markets. In addition, "we are seeing the actual competition of gas-to-coal being less of a factor as data centers come online than what it has in the past", because the anticipated load growth would require reliable energy from all available generation sources, Craft said. By Anna Harmon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mideast Gulf bloc to push energy security at Cop 30


27/10/25
News
27/10/25

Mideast Gulf bloc to push energy security at Cop 30

Dubai, 27 October (Argus) — As Brazil prepares to host the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem on 10–21 November, Mideast Gulf oil producers, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Iraq, will aim to safeguard their energy export economies — touting their role in global energy security — while pursuing the green transitions at home essential for economic diversification. Cop 30 is tasked with weighing up updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — climate plans — for 2035, scaling climate finance, and operationalising the Cop 28 call to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewables and double energy efficiency made in the UAE in 2023. But Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states are seeking a "just transition" that avoids any suggestion of oil and gas production caps, while securing funding and technology transfers. GCC states and Iraq, which together hold 40pc of global oil reserves and 25pc of natural gas reserves, want to prioritise fast-tracking climate finance, calling for $1 trillion/yr by 2030 in grants, not loans, to support adaptation in heat and water-stressed economies. They will be seeking $100bn in Just Energy Transition Partnership-style deals — for funding coal phase-outs and renewables, as seen in Indonesia and South Africa — to potentially include Oman and Bahrain. They seek multi-donor bank reform and swift disbursements through the World Bank-hosted Loss and Damage Fund. Dedicated finance for desalination, cooling, agriculture and grid-hardening in extreme heat will also be a priority, with calls for fast-tracked concessional funds tied to Cop 30's "planning to action" mandate. For the GCC and Iraq, gas will remain a "transition fuel", and will continue to be promoted as a coal-displacing, reliable back-up. GCC states will be likely to resist a blanket approach for a fossil fuel "phase-out", focusing on "unabated" emissions reductions through methane cuts and carbon capture and storage (CCS). They seek clear Paris Agreement Article 6 rules, enabling carbon credit trading to monetise "high-integrity" credits. Qatar, home to the Global Carbon Council, aims to standardise baselines for the project's global market integration. Methane abatement is a potential flashpoint. Committed to near-zero methane and zero routine flaring by 2030, GCC producers want these efforts funded as implementation, not new pledges, and building on the Cop 28 oil and gas decarbonisation charter and global methane pledge, they seek financing to scale monitoring, reporting and verification. Oil production Belemwether Diplomatically, the GCC states see an opportunity. Brazil, which plans to expand its own oil output to 2030, will have to hedge its position in pushing for a fossil fuel phase-out. This might give the Arab bloc space to advocate a "dual-track" approach, balancing renewables and efficiency with stable oil and gas supplies for global energy security. When their rising oil and gas capacity is invoked versus touted net-zero targets for 2050-60, they are likely to position themselves, yet again, as the bridge between the global energy security and climate ambition. The UAE is the only GCC country that has submitted a new NDC, and their ambitions are highly likely to lag the 1.5°C pathway's 43pc global emissions cut by 2030, compared with 2019 levels. They will continue to champion CCS, efficiency and growing renewables rather than agree on oil and gas production output cuts. They are likely to prioritise implementation over new commitments and caution against policy shocks through semantics. For Brazil and the UNFCCC process, the question is whether this pragmatism anchors consensus or slows fossil fuel demand decline. The GCC's calculus is clear — sustain revenue streams for economic diversification while its oil and gas underpins global energy security in the transition. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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