News
11/09/26
Hormuz oil export losses near 2.8bn bl: IEA
Antalya, 11 September (Argus) — Nearly 2.8bn bl of oil exports have been lost
through the strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran war began, but alternative
supply, stock draws and lower demand have filled much of the gap, the IEA said
today. Flows through the strait averaged 7.6mn b/d in August, around 13.1mn b/d
below pre-war levels, the Paris-based agency estimated in its latest Oil Market
Report (OMR). Exports through routes bypassing Hormuz have offset more than
500mn bl, or an average of 2.8mn b/d, of the losses since the conflict started.
Combined exports from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu and the UAE's Fujairah rose from
4.1mn b/d in February to 7.8mn b/d in June, before Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
cut flows to 5.5mn b/d in August. Increased production outside the Mideast Gulf
from countries including the US, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Venezuela and Nigeria has
offset a further 420mn bl of the cumulative losses, the IEA said. The rest of
the deficit appears to have been absorbed by stock draws and lower demand. The
IEA said global observed stocks were drawing at record rates and stood 507mn bl
lower than before the start of the war. The agency puts cumulative global demand
reductions since the start of the conflict at more than 1bn bl, driven by steep
falls in China and the Middle East. It said apparent Chinese demand over the
past six months was running around 1.7mn b/d below February levels, reflecting
lower imports, refinery activity and product deliveries. The impasse in
negotiations between the US and Iran has delayed the prospect of a normalisation
of flows through the strait of Hormuz until next year, according to the IEA. The
agency now assumes shipping through the strait will remain restricted throughout
2026. Fighting has escalated between the US and Iran in the Mideast Gulf and
between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea in recent days.
Global oil production fell by 1.6mn b/d on the month to 100.1mn b/d in August,
with around 10mn b/d of Gulf output still shut in, the IEA said. Global supply
is expected to fall by 5.7mn b/d on the year to 100.7mn b/d in 2026, with the
supply forecast 1.3mn b/d lower than in last month's report. Production is
forecast to rebound by 8mn b/d in 2027. The Paris-based agency forecasts global
oil demand will fall by 2.5mn b/d to 102.5mn b/d in 2026, a decline around
940,000 b/d steeper than projected in the previous report, before recovering by
2.6mn b/d in 2027. Demand losses will be concentrated in middle distillates and
petrochemical feedstocks, particularly in Asia. The IEA said disruptions to
refined product exports from the Mideast Gulf and Russia had severely
constrained diesel and gasoil availability and driven prices sharply higher.
Global refinery throughputs reached a summer peak of 81.4mn b/d in August, up by
960,000 b/d on the month but still 4.2mn b/d below year-earlier levels, the IEA
said. "Refining margins reached record levels in the Atlantic Basin in August,
led by sharply higher diesel cracks, while surging freight rates weighed on
Singapore profitability," it said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more
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