The Brazilian UN Cop 30 presidency, hosts of this year's climate summit in November, frames the conference as the "implementation Cop" — the Cop that will drive through the climate pledges and commitments made since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
But implementation needs funding, and that will remain central to discussions at Cop 30.
A forthcoming UN report is expected to show that countries' climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — are not sufficient to hit Paris climate agreement goals. Developing countries' NDCs are at least partially conditional on financial support. Emerging and developing economies will need to invest $2.4 trillion/yr by 2030 and $3.3 trillion/yr by 2035 to achieve energy transitions, as well as tackle the effects of and adapt to climate change, an independent high-level expert group said last year. Global climate finance flows hit a record high of $1.9 trillion in 2023, but only around 10pc went to developing countries, non-profit the Climate Policy Initiative says.
Finance was in the spotlight at last year's Cop 29 in Baku. Nearly 200 countries decided on the next iteration of a climate finance goal, and they eventually agreed — although this was disputed by some — that developed countries would deliver $300bn/yr to developing countries by 2035. Developing countries' calls for more than $1 trillion/yr were acknowledged in the outcome document, which recommended a "Baku to Belem roadmap" for scaling finance from all sources to developing countries to a minimum of $1.3 trillion/yr by 2035. But this will be a summary of countries' submissions and will not be negotiated at Cop.
The Cop 30 presidency is "still working [on the roadmap] because we received some final contributions in early October", the incoming summit's president, Andre Correa do Lago, said last week. "We are looking to involve as many actors as possible to contribute," he said. A meeting of 33 finance ministers, convened by Brazil's Cop 30 presidency, last week set out its five priorities for scaling up finance to $1.3 trillion/yr. These include scaling up concessional finance and optimising climate funds, reforming multilateral development banks (MDBs) to ramp up sustainable finance and finding solutions to boost private-sector investment.
Finding new funding
The private sector will draw focus as a source of climate finance. Public climate funding is likely to dwindle over the next few years, as many major international aid donors have cut programmes, or plan to soon. But pulling in private-sector investment for initiatives with no clear revenue stream could be tricky. Finance for adaptation — adjusting to the effects of climate change — is likely to be a key topic this year, but the onus is more likely to fall on MDBs to provide support.
Cop 30 will probably drive forward smaller, targeted financial initiatives, such as Brazil's Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), which is designed to create a financial incentive for protecting forests. Under the TFFF, developing countries that stabilise, reduce or slow deforestation can qualify for payments. To fund the initiative, Brazil envisages around $25bn from developed countries and $100bn from the private sector. Brazil itself has committed investment of $1bn to the TFFF. Some participants may look to carbon markets for further climate finance, while Brazil has proposed a voluntary coalition for carbon market integration.
The scale of the issues — implementing emissions reduction projects, adapting to climate change and addressing the damage caused — requires finance of a similar scale. "Progress will depend on sustained engagement across platforms" including climate funds, MDBs, the private sector and domestic institutions, "all moving in the same direction", the finance ministers said.
