Countries' most recent climate plans show a clear downward trend in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, although action on cutting emissions must accelerate, a report from UN climate body the UNFCCC found today.
The world is "clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough", UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said.
Signatories to the Paris Climate Agreement are required to submit national climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every five years, rising in ambition each time. The UN has assessed the NDCs and targets submitted so far in its so-called 'synthesis' report.
Countries that have submitted new NDCs would, if the plans are implemented, reduce their GHG emissions by between 11pc and 24pc below 2019 levels. If the "conditional elements" are put into action, this would put the drop in emissions at the higher end of the range, at 19-24pc lower than the 2019 level. Plans from some developing countries have a conditional component, which depends on financial and technical support. Implementation of the NDCs submitted "will result in a peaking of GHG emissions for [that group] before 2030", the report found.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — which pulls together and distills climate research — finds that global GHG emission reductions should fall by around 60pc by 2035, from a 2019 baseline, to align with a 1.5°C pathway. This refers to the Paris Climate Agreement, which seeks to limit the rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and pursues a 1.5°C threshold.
Today's report is based on 64 NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC between 1 January 2024 and 30 September this year, covering around 30pc of total global emissions — excluding land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) — in 2019. These include several G20 countries — Australia, Brazil, Canada, Russia and the UK. It also includes the US — the world's second-biggest emitter — which submitted an NDC under the previous administration. The country has since announced that it will exit the Paris agreement, so how much of the plan will be carried out in the next few years is uncertain, although some sub-national governments have indicated they are aiming to continue climate action.
The report does not draw a global conclusion, given that it covers only around a third of Paris agreement signatories. But Stiell noted a "wider picture, though still incomplete", based on the NDCs and on new targets indicated by jurisdictions which have not yet been formally submitted. This "shows global emissions falling by around 10pc by 2035", Stiell said. This figure also includes the US.
Countries that reported financial needs gave estimates amounting to around $1.9 trillion in total, with the majority of that, around $1.34 trillion, focused on mitigation, or cutting emissions, the report found.
Countries must "respond and show how we are going to speed up" on climate action at the UN Cop 30 summit next month in Belem, Brazil, Stiell said. "Nations are still fully on board for climate co-operation, because it works but must work faster, and that means achieving concrete and strong outcomes on all key issues", he said.
