Indonesia and Malaysia have set new emissions reduction targets for 2035 as part of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — climate plans — submitted to the UN climate body the UNFCCC.
Indonesia submitted its second NDC on 27 October, under which it expects to achieve peak emissions by 2030 and reduce emission growth compared to its previous NDC. It has set absolute emissions caps in its latest climate plan, based on one scenario assuming economic growth of 6pc in 2030 and 6.7pc in 2035, and another one assuming 7pc in 2030 and 8.3pc in 2035, providing adequate funding and technology transfer.
The country expects emission levels in 2030 to reach 1.346bn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) under the first scenario, and 1.491bn t of CO2e under the second. This compares with a 1.145bn t of CO2e baseline in 2019, which this NDC "applies" as its reference year, according to the document.
The country expects emissions to decline from their peak 2030 levels in 2035 to 1.258bn t of CO2e under the first scenario or remain stable at 1.489bn t of CO2e under the second scenario.
The NDC's scope includes four out of the seven greenhouse gases (GHGs) — namely CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons. The target is economy-wide and nation-wide, and applies to five key sectors — energy, industrial processes and product use, waste, agriculture, and forestry and other land use.
The country has maintained its target of net zero emissions by 2060 "or sooner".
Indonesia's previous enhanced NDC submitted in 2022 had an unconditional emissions reduction target of 31.89pc and conditional reduction target of 43.2pc in 2030 against business-as-usual (BAU) levels. BAU scenarios typically assume emissions based on current policies, leaving room for further increases.
Indonesia aims for the share of renewables in its energy mix to reach 19-23pc in 2030, 36-40pc in 2040 and 70-72pc in 2060. The country expects its latest NDC will require a total investment of $472.6bn in order to be achieved. It intends to use Article 5 — relating to carbon sinks protection — and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to support its climate action. Article 6 seeks to set rules on global carbon trade.
Indonesia has made recent advancements in developing its carbon market. It has signed an agreement with the International Emissions Trading Association to work on carbon market implementation, and earlier this month announced that credits produced in the country will be made available to international buyers again.
Malaysia
Malaysia intends to hit peak emissions by as early as 2030 and no later than 2034, depending on the availability of support. In its latest NDC, it aims to achieve an absolute emissions reduction of 15mn-30mn t of CO2e by 2035 from its projected peak level, which it did not indicate. This comprises an unconditional reduction of up to 20mn t of CO2e, and an additional reduction of 10mn t of CO2e depending on the provision of climate finance, technology transfer and capacity-building from international sources.
This target is economy-wide and covers all seven GHGs. The sectors involved are the energy, industrial processes and product use, waste, agriculture and land use, land-use change, and forestry.
Its previous NDC had an unconditional target to cut carbon intensity against GDP by 45pc by 2030 compared with 2005 levels.
It has taken steps towards establishing a legal framework for the deployment of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). It is also looking to implement carbon pricing instruments, and confirmed earlier this month that it will introduce a carbon tax next year.
