Parties in favour of the energy transition are tipped to win more seats than anti-transition parties in the Dutch general election on Wednesday, but neither of the broad groupings look set for a majority.
Polling is fragmented ahead of the election, which was sparked by the collapse of the previous coalition in June, with no party expected to win more than 15pc of seats.
Polling outfit Ipso places three parties jointly in the lead, with right-wing PVV and centre-left GL-PvdA and D66 forecast to receive 23 seats each in the 150-member parliament. Following them are centre-right CDA and VVD, with 19 and 17 seats each, and right-wing JA21 on 11. The top six parties are seen winning 116 seats or 77pc of the lower house, with 10 smaller parties taking the remainder.
Broadly climate-sceptic party PVV, under its leader Geert Wilders, was previously tipped to win the most seats, but remain too small to form a government. And other parties have signalled they will not form coalitions with PVV, after Wilders pulled out of the last coalition, causing it to collapse.
But the party's support has fallen sharply in polling in recent weeks, opening up the field.
The party supports increased domestic gas production, calls for a moratorium on new wind and solar photovoltaic and removal of some existing wind turbines. More broadly in energy policy it calls for a withdrawal from the Paris agreement on limiting global warming, and abolishing the Netherlands' CO2 tax.
Its policies are similar to those advanced by smaller party JA-21, which has called for restarting gas production at Groningen, while centre-right VVD has limited explicit energy policy but agrees with the abolition of the Netherlands' CO2 tax.
The three largest parties with broadly pro-transition policies, D66, GL-PvdA and CDA, are tipped to win 65 seats between them. The three are all strongly in favour of solar photovoltaics and wind energy, and broadly favour reducing the role of gas in the Dutch energy mix. All three support developing district heating to replace gas boilers, but are divided on how fast the Netherlands should move to cut gas demand.
There is clear consensus almost across the board on nuclear power, favoured by five of the six likely largest parties. The outgoing caretaker government earlier this month moved to allow the 485MW Borssele, the country's sole nuclear plant, to remain open beyond 2033. Most parties expressed support for current plans to build at least two new reactors by the late 2030s, with others opting for at least four, and some pushing for the development of small modular reactors.
With no individual party polling anywhere near a majority, coalition negotiations will be necessary to form a government. Negotiations took at least 200 days for each of the past three governments.
