Elections in New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday could herald changes in how each state tackles climate policy.
In Virginia, the race between former US representative Abigail Spanberger (D) and lieutenant governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) could determine whether the state continues to refine its existing renewable portfolio standard (RPS) or move further down the path paved by outgoing governor Glenn Youngkin (R), a staunch opponent of the mandate.
In addition to the gubernatorial election, all 100 seats in the state's House of Delegates are up for election. Democrats hold a 51-48 majority in the chamber.
Spanberger, who leads in most polls, has endorsed a blend of clean energy resources, ranging from wind and solar to more hypothetical technologies like small modular reactors and fusion, to meet rising electricity demand. Democratic wins would allow lawmakers to revisit adjustments to the RPS that came up short this year. The program requires utilities in the state to use resources like solar and wind for 100pc of their non-nuclear load by 2050 at the latest, with Dominion Energy, the state's largest power supplier, beholden to a 2045 deadline.
State senator Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) and state delegate Katrina Callsen (D) have promised to reintroduce a bill vetoed by Youngkin that would have delayed until 2027, from 2025, a requirement that Dominion acquire 75pc of its renewable energy certificates (RECs) from in-state resources. It also would have raised the utility's obligation to use distributed generation for 3pc of its annual requirement, from 1pc at present, while lifting the cap on qualifying distributed generators to 3MW, from 1MW. Legislators could push those revised targets higher in their 2026 bill, according to VanValkenburg.
"If we can bump that up at all, we are going to," he said.
But conversations around adjusting the timeline for Dominion's in-state requirements "haven't fully begun yet", as the issue will be "moot" if Democrats lose in November.
A Spanberger win combined with a Democratic majority in the General Assembly could open the door to broader changes to the RPS to account for the proliferation of data centers and the corresponding spike in expected load growth. Lawmakers originally designed the mandate under an assumption of "flat or very slow growing electricity demand", leaving it ill-equipped to handle the current landscape, according to William Shobe, professor emeritus of public policy at the University of Virginia.
Importantly, the RPS requires Virginia to shut down all carbon emitting facilities by 2045, even as the state pursues new thermal generation to cover that demand.
"We'll be forced to reconsider that because it'll be too costly," Shobe said. "One good solution is to get us back into RGGI and to replace the 2045 shutdown requirement with a better ramp mechanism."
Call it a comeback
Returning to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), currently a 10-state program to reduce CO2 emissions from power plants, would be preferable because of how it incentivizes emissions reductions through allowance trading, according to Shobe.
RGGI states recently agreed to a steeper decline in the program's CO2 emissions cap, which will fall to just over 9mn short tons (st) by 2037. But the program's sizeable allowance bank as well the planned addition of a second allowance reserve starting in 2027 could help power plants manage the decarbonization goals, while also mitigating concerns over rising electricity costs.
Virginia's participation in RGGI has been in limbo since the end of 2023, when the Youngkin administration promulgated regulations to remove the state from the program, arguing that it raised electricity bills. A lower court ruled last year that the regulation was unlawful, a decision the administration has appealed.
A Spanberger win could render the case moot. She has promised to "negotiate the best ratepayer deal to rejoin RGGI", although it is unclear what such a deal would look like.
One thing that could be on the negotiating table is whether the state is responsible for building an allowance bank, according to Shobe. An allowance bank would mitigate future demand, potentially keeping compliance costs from rising too quickly.
During Virginia's original two-year participation in the program, its power plant emissions and allowance allocations were largely even, "so we were not a net demander or a net supplier of allowances," Shobe said.
Rising electricity load would likely make Virginia a "net demander" in RGGI, but that balance would depend on the state's energy policy choices and its negotiations with the other program members, according to Shobe.
Should Earle-Sears win, the picture could be very different. The lieutenant governor has been vague when discussing her energy policies, and her campaign did not respond to a request for more details. But her comments during a debate last month suggest her policies could closely follow those of Youngkin, who has pushed for an "all-of-the-above" approach to energy while unsuccessfully attempting to excise Virginia's renewable energy mandate from the books.
"We need clean coal, we need oil, we need nuclear, we need natural gas and we need, yes, renewables," Earle-Sears said.
Not on my Jersey shores
In New Jersey, US representative Mikie Sherrill (D) and former state representative Jack Ciattarelli (R) have both espoused an "all-of-the-above" approach to energy.
But the candidates' definitions of "all" differ, according to Clinton Andrews, director for the Center for Urban Policy Research and professor at Rutgers University.
Sherrill has pledged to overhaul the state's approach to vetting new generation, which she has blamed for slowing New Jersey's efforts to bolster offshore wind, especially compared with Virginia. Although meaningful offshore wind development may be unrealistic in the near term given President Donald Trump's disdain for the sector, Sherrill has called for cutting the regulatory red tape around other resources, particularly solar, to put more clean generation on the grid.
The next governor could use two approaches to speed that process along for utility-scale projects, Andrews said. First, the new governor could use the authority already held by the Board of Public Utilities to preempt local land-use decisions, often a roadblock in bringing new wind and solar projects forward. New Jersey also could implement community benefits agreements, ensuring that residents and municipalities receive some form of compensation, to sway reluctant locals. But those arrangements would likely require legislation to establish.
More broadly, while Sherrill could continue to pursue outgoing governor Phil Murphy's (D) call to decarbonize the electricity grid by 2035, committing that goal to statute, something the legislature is considering, may not be practical at the moment, according to Andrews.
"I think with the uncertainty around offshore wind that the Legislature would be hesitant to enshrine it in legislation," he said. "I would guess that they would be punting on that and that Sherrill would follow more closely her interest in energy affordability."
New Jersey's permitting woes and resulting high energy costs have also cast a spotlight on its membership in RGGI, which Ciattarelli has promised to end. He has called RGGI a "failed policy", saying it has done little to reduce emissions while contributing towards the state's rising electricity costs. Leaving the program would save New Jersey $300mn-500mn/yr, he said.
Over the past year, RGGI allowances in the secondary market consistently have been well above the program's cost-containment reserve trigger price, a soft ceiling designed to pour additional allowances into the market to mitigate rising prices. In addition, the market has been on a bullish streak recently. Argus assessed December 2025 allowances at $25.38/st on 31 October, a nearly one-year high for current-year contracts.
But leaving RGGI probably will not dampen electricity bills, according to Andrews. New Jersey is part of the PJM Interconnection, which includes RGGI members Maryland and Delaware, and imports much of its electricity, making it possible that the state could still feel the indirect costs of RGGI, he said.
Sherrill has said little with regards to RGGI, but her victory likely would ensure the state's continued participation.
"My sense of RGGI is that it is something that Republicans like to cut and Democrats like to keep. So, if she follows the historical pattern, then she would keep it," Andrews said.
Sherrill has maintained a consistent lead in the weeks leading up to the election, with the latest polling from Suffolk University on 30 October showing her 4 percentage points ahead of Ciattarelli.
