Mexico's inflation eased to an annual 3.57pc in October, driven by further deceleration in fruit and vegetable prices with core inflation holding steady.
The consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 3.76pc in September, statistics agency Inegi said on 7 November, after accelerating from 3.51pc in July, which was the lowest annual headline inflation rate since December 2020.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held unchanged 4.28pc in October, was unchanged from September. This marked a sixth month above the 4pc level — the high-end of the central bank's target inflation range. Within core, consumer goods inflation eased to 4.12pc in October from 4.19pc in September, while services quickened to 4.44pc in October from 4.36pc in the previous month.
The three largest contributors to CPI in October, as weighted by Inegi, were electricity rates — with the end of seasonal subsidies, single-family home prices and airfares, the latter two components falling under services.
Non-core inflation decelerated in October to 1.18pc from 2.02pc in September, slowing again after a one-month acceleration and coming close to the 2025-low of 1.14pc set in July. Fruit and vegetable prices contracted by an annualized 10.27pc in October after a 4.86pc annual contraction in September, with produce prices much lower under this year's unusually favorable climate conditions compared to the elevated prices during last year's historic droughts.
Annual energy inflation in October quickened to 1.07pc from 0.36pc in September, with 5.07pc annual inflation for electricity offset by a 1.2pc annual contraction for regular-grade gasoline.
Energy prices continue to experience lower inflation after Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary price cap of Ps24/l ($4.93/USG) on gasoline, extending the policy for six months.
The October CPI result was even with the median estimate in Citi Research's latest analyst survey. And with the result, Mexican bank Banorte is maintaining its end-2025 forecasts for headline and core inflation at 3.7pc and 4.3pc, respectively.
Noting the central bank's quarter-point cut to its target interest rate on 6 November to 7.25pc and the October CPI data, Banorte said it expects cuts of similar magnitude in the December, February and March decisions, moving the target interest rate to 6.5pc.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI sped up to 0.36pc in October compared to 0.23pc in September, in line with analyst expectations. Core prices accelerated to 0.29pc in October after a 0.33pc reading in September.
