Turkey has higher LNG regasification capacity than Greece, but the country's rising consumption is weighing on excess gas for export and its closed market creates challenges for traders, while Greece faces grid congestion issues but has promising investments and a more open market.
Greece has a 5.4mn t/yr LNG import terminal at Revithoussa, which could feed the grid with a maximum of 82 TWh/yr if operating at full capacity. Additionally, there is a 4.3mn t/yr terminal at Alexandroupolis, with a theoretical capacity of 66 TWh/yr. Combined, Greece's LNG processing capacity totals 9.7mn t/yr, equal to 148 TWh/yr, or — using Desfa's conversion rate — about 12.7bn m³/yr.
But both terminals operate at much lower utilisation rates. Revithoussa supplied 18.2TWh to the grid throughout 2024, averaging 50 GWh/d. Traders said that LNG prices were less competitive than Russian pipeline gas during that year. And Revithoussa's sendout increased to 79 GWh/d during the first 10 months of this year, which, if sustained for the full year, would be roughly 29TWh.
While low sendout indicates spare capacity at Revithoussa, Greek infrastructure constraints remain. The country faces compression limitations both south-north and east-west. With the recently added compression station at Komotini, Desfa announced that northward export capacity has been raised to 8.5bn m³/yr, or about 99 TWh/yr. This figure is the maximum export capacity at the Sidirokastro and Komotini interconnection points, but delivering gas to these points can still be problematic.
For Revithoussa supply, the Ampelia compressor station, located in central Greece, is critical. Desfa had stated that this project would be completed in the last quarter of this year, but no update has yet been provided. And Alexandroupolis went offline for extended maintenance in January this year soon after it started operations. Its operator was only able to increase its maximum sendout capacity to 75pc of its technical limit by late October.
In any event, a bottleneck persists in the northern Greek system. Capacity at the Amfitriti point, where Alexandroupolis supply enters the grid, will be capped at 44 GWh/d through the 2025-30 gas years — about 16 TWh/yr or 1.4bn m³/yr — according to Desfa.
Turkey as an alternative supply route?
Turkey currently operates five LNG import terminals, three FSRU-based and two onshore facilities, with a total sendout capacity of 161mn m³/d.
Overall sendout capacity equals 625 TWh/yr, more than four times Greece's total, based on Turkish state-run Botas' conversion rate.
The Strandzha 1/Malkoclar point, which directly connects the Turkish to the Bulgarian grid, has a technical outflow capacity of 43 TWh/yr and remains underutilised. Firms exported a total of 16.3TWh at the point to Bulgaria in the first 10 months of this year, and 18.8TWh in all of 2024.
Turkish energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar and senior Botas executives have stated multiple times that they can increase the capacity two to four times in a short period, provided there are long-term commitments from potential European buyers. This suggests an export potential of 10bn m³/yr in the short term, in theory exceeding Greek export capacity.
That said, record high Turkish consumption in the past winter, and scope for further growth might weigh on excess supply for export.
Turkey's main drawbacks include a closed market and heavy dominance by a single actor. Although regulator EPDK maintains a regulatory framework on paper comparable to western Europe, according to many traders, Botas holds clear dominance in practice. Transparency remains low, and the lack of a free trade forces companies to rely on Botas. These factors lowered Turkey's rating in Energy Traders Europe's 2025 report, while Greece rose.
Bulgarian transit
Bulgaria is working to develop its south-north transport capacity.
Bulgarian state-owned supplier Bulgargaz and Botas signed a 13-year deal in January 2023 for Bulgarian access to Turkish LNG terminals. Bulgargaz can transfer up to 1.5bn m³/yr of gas from the Turkish transmission system to Bulgaria through Malkoclar under this agreement, but this agreement has occasionally been criticised and underutilised.
And the inflow capacity from Greece via the Kulata/Sidirokasto will initially reach 37.2 TWh/yr, equal to 3.5bn m³/yr, over the next few years, according to the Bulgarian operator's most recent 10-year plan. The Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria also provides 3bn m³/yr, but its capacity will not increase in the short term. This means that Bulgaria is initially targeting import capacity of 6.5bn m³/yr from Greece.
