Crop tour results boost Argentina yield hopes

Results from the final day of Argentina's wheat and barley crop tour pushed yield expectations higher, with nearly all surveyed segments showing improvements from the prior year.

From survey results collected across the southern portion of the Buenos Aires province and into La Pampa, wheat yields for the 2025 harvest were placed at 3.40 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), and barley yields at 3.80 t/ha. Both figures place yields well above last year's level and set expectations for an increased harvest this year.

The two-day crop tour, hosted by Bahia Blanca Grain and Products Exchange and the Bahia Blanca Grain Arbitration Chamber, concluded yesterday, with an Argus reporter accompanying the Sierra circuit.

The survey area, which covered 1.37mn ha of wheat and 790,000 ha of barley, placed yield estimates for the two crops higher than the previous year across all but one of the surveyed circuits.

The survey was conducted by four groups covering circuits starting in Bahia Blanca, and collected data from fields along four segments.

The Mar circuit traveled east from Bahia Blanca along the Atlantic coast. The Sierra circuit travels northeast from Bahia Blanca above the Mar circuit. The Laguna circuit traveled north into the western edge of the Buenos Aires province. And the Pampa circuit traveled north and west along low lying grasslands into the La Pampa province.

Day-two results boost wheat

Wheat results from the second day of the crop tour exceeded the already optimistic outlook for the crop, with yields projected to increase 13pc from last year's level.

Wheat yields in the Mar circuit were slightly higher during the second day, lifting estimates for the route by 3.2pc from the first day to 5.5 t/ha, up 53pc from a year earlier.

The Sierra circuit saw an even larger increase to yield estimates, revised up by 17pc from the first day to 5.4 t/ha, up 38pc from a year earlier.

Estimates for the Laguna circuit were unchanged by the second day of crop inspections at 4.3 t/ha, up 19pc from a year earlier.

Wheat yields estimate from the Pampa circuit improved by 14pc from the first day's result, which placed yields lower compared to the prior year, to 2.9t/ha, or even with the 2024 harvest.

Barley results mixed on second day

Final crop tour results placed barley yields up 9pc from the prior year across the surveyed area, however observations from the second day did not drive expectations universally higher.

Barley yields in the Mar circuit were mostly unchanged by observations from the second day of the crop tour, estimated at 5.7 t/ha for the 2025 harvest, up 43pc from a year earlier.

The Sierra circuit saw yield estimates revised up 8.2pc from the first day to 5.3 t/ha, up 39pc from a year earlier.

Estimates for the Laguna circuit were lower in the last segment compared to the other portions, slightly reducing yield expectations from the first day to 4.3 t/ha, but up 23pc from a year earlier regardless.

The third segment of the Pampa circuit saw yields improved more than 300pc from last year's level, pulling yield estimates up 8.1pc from the first day to 4t/ha, up 82pc from 2024.

Quality concerns threaten yield hopes

With exceptional yield expectations mostly settled, questions of crop quality and wheat protein levels have emerged as an area of market concern.

Large wheat yields generally drive the crop's protein level lower, a risk that was noted by participants of the crop tour. While the supply of exportable 11.5pc protein wheat may not be curtailed by the risk of lower average protein levels, the supply of wheat below this threshold could expand significantly, participants said. This would drive the supply of feed grade wheat much higher, putting downward pressure prices in Argentina as well as key export markets.

With the 2025 wheat harvest, bids and offers for 10.5pc wheat have become more common, with the price spread below 11.5pc wheat reaching $5/t fob upriver for December loading this week, according to market participants.

The size of this year's harvest could also cause logistical changes, as a large amount of crops were sold for exports during Argentina's export tax holiday at the end of September.

Managing the balance between a large harvest, lower protein levels, and limited shipping capacity is likely to become the change for Argentina's wheat exports over the rest of 2025 and into the year ahead.

By Ryan Koory and Jeffrey T. Lewis