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Smackover Lithium may get $1bn in loans

  • Market: Battery materials, Metals
  • 09/12/25

US lithium developer Smackover Lithium has gotten expressions of interest from three export credit agencies (ECAs) for over $1bn in loans to build the first phase project in southwest Arkansas.

The Export-Import Bank of the US and Export Finance Norway were two of the ECAs, Smackover Lithium said. It did not disclose the third.

Smackover Lithium is a joint venture between US lithium developer Standard Lithium and Norway energy company Equinor.

The funding would help finance the estimated $1.5bn South West Arkansas project. Smackover Lithium said it will negotiate with lenders if cost overruns occur.

The project will use direct lithium extraction technology to produce 22,500 metric tons (t)/yr of lithium carbonate. Construction is scheduled to begin in 2026, with first production expected in 2028.

Smackover Lithium estimated an average cash operating cost of $4,516/t. Argus' weekly US battery grade lithium carbonate assessment was unchanged today at $10.20-11.40/kg ddp.

By Carol Luk

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31/12/25

Viewpoint: US flat steel demand hinges on data centers

Viewpoint: US flat steel demand hinges on data centers

Pittsburgh, 31 December (Argus) — US steel market participants are entering 2026 with a mix of cautious optimism and lingering concerns about future demand, fueled by the industry's potential overreliance on the data center construction boom. Buyers and mills routinely cited data center construction as the strongest performing sector for steel consumption in recent months. Some steel buyers said that customers tied to data center construction were already booking out their orders for much of the coming year. The most recent spending on data center construction was at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $41.4bn in August, 26pc higher than August 2024, according to US Census Bureau data. The expected strength of data center construction activity in 2026 also provided another opportunity for steel demand through energy development. Data center operations are energy intensive, requiring business and local authorities to take an all-encompassing approach for bringing on new sources of power. Steel mills and buyers highlighted the energy sector as a current and future source of steel demand, even after President Donald Trump's tax and spending reconciliation bill ended green energy subsidies. Still, there are some caveats to the data center boom, and broader issues with steel demand in the rest of the economy. Although data center construction has grown year over year, spending growth has slowed from a seasonally adjusted growth of 63pc in the 12 months through August 2024. Demand, meanwhile, may not grow significantly above 2025 levels in virtually every other sector of steel demand. Nonresidential construction in August 2025 fell 1.5pc year over year on a seasonally-adjusted annual rate, according to the US Census Bureau. Steel buyers said that most construction besides data centers was in a weak state. Mills touted the opportunity to capture greater market share in the US auto industry after Section 232 tariffs on steel — which were raised to 50pc by the Trump administration in June — blocked out steel imports from countries like Canada. Imports of hot-rolled coil (HRC), cold-rolled coil (CRC), and hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) steel totaled 3.3mn metric tonnes (t) year to date through September 2025, a 38pc drop from the 4.9mn t imported during the same time in 2024, according to Census Bureau data. American Iron and Steel Institute data showed year-to-date US steel production of 66.7mn short tons (st) (60.6mn t), through September 2025. It was 2.2pc higher compared with 2024. The smaller year-to-date growth in domestic production exposes the limits that market share changes alone can produce, and some service centers are concerned that steel demand from outlets like automobile producers may not grow much beyond this market share capture because of strained consumer spending and bearish consumer sentiment. Retail spending on new vehicles and auto parts was up by 5.1pc in September from a year earlier, according to the Census Bureau, but that growth does not account for changes in price. The number narrows to 2.1pc real growth when factoring in the 3pc annual consumer price index gain reported in September 2025. Consumers' views on the current and future state of the economy remained poor in December. The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment survey recorded a mark of 52.9 in December 2025, 29pc lower than the same time a year earlier. The survey showed eight months in 2025 with a sentiment reading below 60, the highest number of months below that level within the space of one year since 2022. Since 1978, when monthly reports began, only six years posted even a single month with a reading below 60. The next-highest number of months below 60 in one year was four, reported in 2008 and 1980, both years of recession in the US. Most concerning for consumer-facing industries, the index on future expectations was 54.6, 26pc lower than a year prior. Automotive and consumer products demand was still more favorable compared to demand in the agricultural industry, where steel is used to manufacture heavy machinery for farming. Global trade uncertainty has made it difficult for farmers to sell their crops overseas, hampering profitability. This slowdown in the agricultural sector was embodied by companies like John Deere which laid off workers at two Iowa plants in September after reporting higher costs from tariffs, reduced profitability and lowered demand throughout 2025. One steel buyer said that with so much of the steel industry and wider US economy tied to consumer spending, encompassing everything from food to cars, steel demand would struggle to grow until rising consumer sentiment spurs more spending and a wider economic rebound. By Aaron May Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Al scrap export enters restricted zone

31/12/25
News
31/12/25

Viewpoint: Al scrap export enters restricted zone

London, 31 December (Argus) — When the EU's trade and economic security commissioner Maros Sefcovic announced at the European Aluminium summit in Brussels last month that the European Commission has begun preparatory work on a new measure that will restrict exports of aluminium scrap out of the bloc, it represented not only the culmination of a growing chorus of voices in Europe that have been clamouring for such a measure throughout the year, but potentially also the start of a new wave of protectionism in global scrap markets. Demand for recycled aluminium, and the sustainability benefits it offers in contrast to a primary industry that accounts for around 3pc of global industrial emissions, is running well beyond supply levels that have been diminished by one of the longest downturns in manufacturing activity in living memory. And yet Europe has continued to export aluminium scrap in greater and greater volumes, with demand particularly from India and other export markets in Asia seemingly insatiable. The EU exported around 1.26mn t of aluminium scrap in 2024, that figure having increased at a compound annual growth rate of over 10pc since 2020. This trend has so diminished the availability of aluminium scrap in Europe that European Aluminium director general Paul Voss said that he had never seen the industry so alarmed by a single issue than by this one, calling the situation "genuinely desperate". Europe is not taking the lead on aluminium scrap export restrictions, as a number of countries in Asia and Africa have already enforced their own measures. China maintains a 15pc export duty on aluminium scrap, while the UAE charges AED100/t ($27/t) on aluminium scrap exports, having previously enforced a full ban over 2020-23. South Africa also imposed export duties on scrap metal in 2020. Neither is Europe the only region considering new restrictions. India is reportedly contemplating limits on aluminium scrap exports to safeguard domestic supply for the rising downstream demand that has attracted so much European scrap in recent years, while US trade group the Aluminum Association has called for an immediate ban on exports of used beverage cans, while also lobbying the federal government for potential restrictions on exports of other grades of mill-quality aluminium scrap. This rising level of protectionism in scrap markets around the world speaks to the dramatic fall in scrap availability in recent years. The downturn in industrial activity particularly in western countries has slowed the generation of fresh scrap units, both in the form of post-industrial manufacturing leftovers and post-consumer scrap from the shredding of old cars and demolition of old buildings. Meanwhile the number of scrap consumers has risen exponentially as more and more industries demand greener products and as scrap sorting and processing technologies have advanced to the point of allowing lower grades of scrap to be used in applications with higher purity requirements. The latter point is one that the European Aluminium Association is using to counter objections to the EU's export restriction plans. Exporters have contended that Europe cannot process all the scrap it produces, and that lower grades particularly rely on export markets to find consumers. But as sorting technology has improved, the portion of scrap that EU consumers cannot process has shrunk, blunting one of the main arguments against the export restriction. The tone of Sefcovic's announcement suggests that the EU is determined to move quickly with its plans and expects to have some form of export restriction in place by the spring. Given that scrap markets will certainly remain tight globally in 2026, similar measures may follow quickly in the US, India and elsewhere, while those nations with existing export restrictions in place will have no reason to reconsider their position. As scrap metal moves from waste product to legitimate commodity in the perception not just of its industry participants but of its regulators, scrap protectionism will become a common theme in the months and years to come. By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India extends import duties on flat steel to 3 years

31/12/25
News
31/12/25

India extends import duties on flat steel to 3 years

Mumbai, 31 December (Argus) — India has extended safeguard duties on certain flat steel products to three years to shield the domestic industry from cheaper imports, bringing relief to local producers. A duty of 12pc will be applied on products imported between 21 April 2025 to 20 April 2026, the finance ministry said in a 30 December notice. The rate will be lowered to 11.5pc on products imported during 21 April 2026 to 20 April 2027, and to 11pc on imports from 21 April 2027 to 20 April 2028. The duties are applicable for products falling under HS codes 7208, 7209, 7210, 7211, 7212, 7225 and 7226. Certain products such as cold-rolled electrical steel, stainless steel and tinplate are excluded from the scope of duties. Products imported at or above a particular price threshold will not be subject to these duties, the ministry said. For example, the price threshold for hot-rolled coil (HRC) is set at $675/t cif; imports above that price will be exempt. Among developing countries, only China — a major steel exporter — and Vietnam, from where some Chinese-origin shipments are rerouted, will be subject to HRC duties, market participants said. India's finished steel imports had slowed since a 12pc provisional safeguard duty was imposed for 200 days from 21 April. The ministry's decision has eased market uncertainty as participants were unsure whether the safeguard duty would be extended following its lapse on 7 November. Domestic HRC prices were on a steady downtrend during November but have risen in the last two weeks owing to mill price hikes and firmer restocking demand. The Argus weekly Indian domestic 2.5-4mm HRC assessment stood at 47,250 rupees/t ($525/t) ex-Mumbai, excluding goods and services tax, on 26 December, up from Rs45,850/t a month earlier. Prices have increased further this week as buyers anticipate another mill price hike at the start of January. This rally will likely continue because of the import duty extension, industry participants said. Following the notice from the ministry, a north-India based distributor raised his HRC offers by Rs500/t ex-warehouse. By Amruta Khandekar India steel safeguard duty structure Product category Import price on cif basis Developing countries subject to duties Hot rolled coils, sheets and plates $675/t China, Vietnam Hot rolled plate mill plates $695/t China Cold rolled coils and sheets $824/t China, Nepal Metallic coated coils and sheets $861/t Vietnam, China, Nepal Colour coated coils and sheets $964/t China, Nepal Safeguard duties not applicable if imports are at or above cif price threshold Ministry of finance Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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SQM, Codelco create public-private Li miner

30/12/25
News
30/12/25

SQM, Codelco create public-private Li miner

Sao Paulo, 30 December (Argus) — Chilean miner SQM and state-owned mining giant Codelco have formally merged their lithium subsidiaries despite legal challenges by SQM's second-largest shareholder. SQM and Codelco have created NovaAndino Litio, Chile's first lithium miner founded under its national lithium strategy , a staple of exiting President Gabriel Boric's administration. The 50:50 joint venture includes a "golden share" for Codelco, meaning that it will control operations at the Atacama salt flats, the largest brownfield lithium resource in Chile, starting in January 2031. Until then, SQM will remain in control. Since the joint venture materialized before the end of 2025, SQM secured an overall quota increase of 300,000 metric tonnes (t) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by the end of 2030, increasing its extraction allowance to 1.65mn t LCE until its current mining lease expires. NovaAndino's quota will rise to 2.5mn t LCE from 2031-2060, enabling average production of 330,000 t/yr. The Chilean government will capture 85pc of the project's operating profit margins starting in 2031, it said, a 15 percentage point increase from the 70pc it is capturing through 2030. The state will earn its share through taxes, Codelco's profits and payments made to Chile's economic development agency, which owns the land where SQM's — and soon to be NovaAndino's — project is located. Codelco chief executive Maximo Pacheco will double as NovaAndino's president for the next two years. He will vacate his post at Codelco in May, when his term ends. SQM chief executive Ricardo Ramos will be the joint venture's vice-president. China's Tianqi fighting venture Chinese miner Tianqi Lithium, SQM's second-largest shareholder, has once again reaffirmed its legal dispute against the joint venture before Chile's supreme court. Following the creation of NovaAndino, Tianqi's lawyers urged the court to suspend the project's implementation while a ruling on its legal challenge remains pending. They argue that the joint venture has now entered its execution phase and could become irreversible before the judges rule on Tianqi's case. Tianqi acknowledges that the court rejected its earlier request to suspend the deal on the grounds that there was nothing to suspend at the time, as the joint venture had not yet formed. Tianqi now argues that the SQM–Codelco agreement has been cleared and is moving into implementation, with Codelco saying it expects to sign the closing documents in the coming days and the board is already appointed without any direct representatives from Tianqi. Tianqi, with a 22.1pc stake in SQM, objects to the partnership being approved behind closed doors solely by SQM's board of directors, rather than through a special shareholders' meeting — a requirement that Tianqi says is mandated by Chile's Corporations Act. Its dispute hinges on Chilean financial market regulator CMF's approval of the joint venture. It claims that the way the joint venture's approval process was carried out violates the CMF's own corporate law framework. Tianqi argues that under the framework of the Salar de Atacama joint venture SQM will no longer control its "core lithium operations" in the region, which could affect its investment returns and dividends. The company says it has been "deprived of its right to access key information of the partnership, the possibility of voting on it at a shareholders' meeting, and, eventually, to exercise the right of withdrawal that the law recognizes". There is no indication that the supreme court will freeze or delay the deal, as Tianqi has been losing its challenges in several different courts. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Brazil-made EVs to surge in 2026

30/12/25
News
30/12/25

Viewpoint: Brazil-made EVs to surge in 2026

Sao Paulo, 30 December (Argus) — Electric vehicle (EV) production in Brazil is set to surge in 2026 as more Chinese automakers open assembly plants in the country and non-Chinese players in the Brazilian market start responding with their own EV models, a shift that is expected to slow imports. Brazil's EV market has been largely import-driven since the first influx of Chinese electric vehicles in 2023, when BYD and Great Wall Motor (GWM) imported around 30,000 cars, according to data from Brazilian EV association ABVE. That is expected to change in 2026, following the ramp-up of at least six Chinese automakers' assembly plants in Brazil and a slew of new, locally-made electrified models from legacy brands. Geely , MG Motor, and Omoda/Jaecoo — a subsidiary of Chery Group — plan to begin local EV assembly in 2026. Meanwhile, BYD , GWM , and Chevrolet , the latter through a joint venture with China's SAIC and Wuling, started assembling EVs in Brazil in 2025. Chery has been producing vehicles in Brazil — both EVs and internal combustion engine (ICE) models — since 2017. Chinese brands have been actively exploring the Latin American market for the past three years and have seen high adoption rates for their vehicles. Chinese automakers accounted for 10pc of all passenger vehicles sold in Brazil in 2025, according to specialized consulting firm Bright. Several brands now see Brazil as a hub to locally build vehicles targeting both the Brazilian market and exports to neighboring countries. Bright expects overall EV sales in Brazil to rise to 275,000 units by year-end 2025, a 55pc increase compared to 2024 and by far the largest increase in Latin America. Sales could more than double year on year in 2026, rising to 600,000 units and capturing a 22.9pc market share, the consultancy said. Chinese automakers are expected to account for just under half of Brazil's 2026 EV sales at 270,000 units, representing a 61pc increase compared to 2025. Of that total, 170,000 units are expected to be imported from China. Chinese brands imported around 140,000 consumer-ready units in 2025, data from Bright shows. The remaining 100,000 EVs Chinese automakers plan to sell in Brazil are expected to be assembled locally starting in 2026, Bright said. This will effectively slow import growth as domestic supply will reduce the need for consumer-ready units built overseas, BYD, GWM and Chevrolet assembled 25,000 cars in the country in 2025, according to Argus' estimates, based on data from the automakers. Chinese and legacy automakers will manufacture between 250,000-300,000 EVs in Brazil in 2026, making it the first year in which the country will have a sizeable domestic EV production. Legacy carmakers strike back Legacy and ICE automakers with established production in Brazil are set to intensify EV development and production in 2026 to compete with Chinese automakers for Brazilian buyers' affections, according to Bright. Brazilian buyers became more receptive to Chinese brands — and EVs in general — after the Covid-19 pandemic, when legacy automakers raised prices and companies from China filled the gap with more affordable vehicles, better technology and fresh designs. EVs are popular among Brazilian consumers and have found a market even away from big cities. Drivers who cover long distances daily can save up to R2,500/month ($465/month) due to energy-versus-fuel costs, according to EV charging infrastructure manager Tupi. Brands such as Stellantis, Volkswagen, Renault and Toyota have plans to manufacture new hybrid models in Brazil starting in 2026. Most of those vehicles will be mild hybrids (MHEV), an ICE vehicle with a small 12V or 48V non-plug-in battery that assists the gas-powered engine and improves fuel efficiency. MHEVs are legally considered EVs in Brazil and are eligible for environmental tax exemptions and other benefits in line with traditional EVs. Mild hybrids are cheaper than regular hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and are also typically sold by more established carmakers, making them an attractive option for customers who want a cheaper EV or a big-name brand. Bright expects Brazilian consumers to buy 200,000 MHEVs in 2026, most of them manufactured locally. Caoa Chery, a subsidiary of Chery Group, is the only Chinese carmaker to locally manufacture MHEVs. Their competitors from China only market regular EVs, including fully electric vehicles (BEV) and HEVs. Toyota is the only non-Chinese automaker in Brazil to locally manufacture HEVs. Bright expects a total of 2.62mn vehicles to be sold in Brazil in 2026, up by 2.3pc from this year's 2.56mn units. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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