The German cabinet on 10 December approved legislation to implement the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) into national law.
This will adjust the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota and abolish double counting of advanced fuels from 2026. But it is unlikely to pass remaining legislative processes in time for the EU's 1 January deadline.
The bill passed by the cabinet largely follows a draft dated 29 October that was leaked in November. The overall quota level will rise to 59pc by 2040. Aviation and marine fuels are exempt from the quota obligation.
The law will end the eligibility of palm oil products, most notably palm oil mill effluent (Pome), for compliance towards the GHG quota. This exclusion, and a requirement for fuel producers to allow on-site audits, will not come into effect until 2027, leaving 2026 as a transitional year.
The end of double counting for advanced biofuels removes a key point of market uncertainty. Under current rules, advanced biofuels can be counted as twice their energy value towards the GHG quota, provided the minimum sub-mandate for advanced fuels has been met. But the change to end double counting will apply to the entire compliance year and all subsequent years, meaning it will be retroactive to 1 January. The only exception is for fuels supplied prior to 1 January 2026.
The law will enter into force on the second day after publication in the Federal Law Gazette, with selected sections taking effect a day earlier for procedural reasons. Before that can happen, the bill must be submitted to the Germany's lower and upper parliaments for debate. The lower house's approval is not required, and the upper house could initiate changes. The bill can only be submitted to the Federal President for his signature once the upper house has given approval.
This process is likely to conclude in the first quarter of 2026.
Changes to sub-quotas, RFNBOs, biomethane
The sub-mandate for advanced biofuels, made from feedstocks listed in Annex IX of RED III, will rise to 9pc by 2040.
The mandate for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) — such as e-fuels and green hydrogen — is higher will rise to 2.5pc of an obligated company's energy mix in 2034, and then to 8pc in 2040. The penalty for non-compliance is €120/GJ.
Imported biomethane can be counted towards the GHG quota, provided it meets certain conditions, such as a connection to the EU gas grid. The baseline emissions value is 94kg CO2e/GJ, aligned with the rest of the EU. The registration deadline with the main customs office is 1 June.
The market for GHG certificates reacted immediately. Other certificates for 2025 are trading around €20/t CO2e higher than the previous day, and prices for 2026 certificates are rising. Prices for 2025 certificates are rising, although they are unaffected by the change. They are seen as a substitute for 2027 certificates because excess 2025 compliance will be carried over.
Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) could now play a central role in meeting the GHG quota, which can influence certificate prices. Demand for advanced HVO could increase significantly, as it can be counted without limit towards the GHG quota as a blending component and as a pure fuel and can be used in most of the existing diesel vehicle fleet.
The end of double counting could increase demand for non-advanced biodiesel grades, such as rapeseed-based RME and used cooking oil-based Ucome. Although the eligibility of these is capped to a certain percentage of a company's energy mix, this limit has not always been fully utilised in the past.
