Brazilian steel output may drop in 2026 as lower-priced imports keep pressure on the domestic market, industry chamber Aco Brasil said.
The country's steel output will fall to 32.4mn metric tonnes(t) in 2026, down by 2.2pc from a year earlier, driven by a 10pc climb in imports to 6.6mn t in the period. These figures exclude the effects of anti-dumping duties expected to take effect in the first half of the year, Aco Brasil said.
"Our mills are operating at a 66pc capacity rate because of predatory imports, but we should be at around 80–85pc output capacity", Aco's executive president Marco Polo de Mello Lopes said in a press conference on 16 December.
Imports will also weigh on domestic sales, with shipments expected to decline to 20.8mn t next year, down by 1.7pc from 2025, the association said. Imports are expected to reach a record 6.6mn t, up by 3.9pc from the previous all-time high of 6.4mn t projected for 2025, Aco Brasil said.
Apparent consumption, the sum of production and imports minus exports, will increase by 1pc on the year to 27mn t in 2026, mainly driven by rising import levels.
Revised 2025 projections
The chamber has cut its 2025 projection for import growth from 19pc to 7.5pc because domestic price declines are curbing a sharper rise in foreign metal.
The revised outlook now sees rolled steel imports at 5.7mn t, up by 20pc instead of the previously estimated 32pc.
Imports have already hit an all-time high of 6mn year-to-date November 2025, up by 7pc year on year. Total import volumes may increase to 6.4mn t by year-end, according to Aco Brasil.
Despite reaching record levels, import inflows lost traction in the second half of the year. As a result, Aco Brasil's initial projection of 7mn t in imports for the year will likely fail to materialize.
In addition to price declines, Brazil's quota policy helped reduce import volumes, sources told Argus. The regime imposes a 25pc tariff on volumes that exceed the quota threshold for 19 rolled steel products.
Importers also became wary of anti-dumping duties set to take effect in a couple of months. Seaborne trade has become riskier, as duties of up to $600/t could apply upon discharge at Brazilian ports, market participants said.
New anti-dumping duties could reverse import growth, with volumes likely to fall instead of rise if the measures take effect. Whether this will be enough to lift production levels remains uncertain.
Aco Brasil has also revised its 2025 output outlook, now projecting a 2.2pc drop to 33.1mn t, compared with a previous estimate of a 0.8pc decline to 33.6mn t. Production cuts deepened despite imports falling short of expectations throughout the year, suggesting that factors beyond imports may be driving the reduction.
