Price support for the US butadiene (BD) market may remain under pressure next year from oversupply concerns, as market participants contend with weak demand, while volumes are increasingly redirected to the seaborne export market.
Market participants told Argus that they expect their annual term commitments to stay unchanged in 2026, though some reductions are possible as derivative nameplate capacity shrinks. Most buyers and sellers anticipate demand conditions comparable to this year, which proved weaker than expected, as tariff- and other trade-related headwinds weighed on an already challenging market environment.
The permanent closure of three derivative sites in 2025 — Lion Elastomers' synthetic rubber plant in Texas, Ineos Styrolution's acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene plant in Ohio and Denka Performance Elastomer's chloroprene rubber plant in Louisiana — underscores broad weakness across a host of downstream segments. This follows the earlier shutdown of Invista's adiponitrile plant in Orange, Texas, in 2023. These four assets account for 17pc of US BD consumption capacity lost between 2023-2025, according to Argus Butadiene Analytics data.
A combination of rising raw material costs and capital expenditures, low demand and regulatory burdens were cited as severely impacting the profitability of chemical operations. Part of the challenge, in tandem with those factors, stems from an influx of low-cost imports, primarily from Asia-Pacific. The US tariff regime, rolled out in April, has not yet lifted demand and, in some cases, eroded output among US derivative manufacturers. In fact, the White House's trade policy shifts have coincided with the shutdown of BD-based polymer facilities and an absence of new builds.
The Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in November, its ninth consecutive drop. Chemical products, plastics and rubber products were among the industries reporting contraction.
Efforts to stimulate domestic production have failed to deliver a significant upside, leading some US suppliers to more closely match their contract nominations to netback export values. This dynamic has helped to reposition the US as the lowest-cost region, replacing Europe's long-standing advantage.
The Argus prevailing US BD contract price (CP) for December settled at 29.25¢/lb ($645/t), the lowest level in over two years. December's settlement shed 19.75¢/lb year-to-date, or 40pc, the tenth consecutive decline. The US BD spot price on a fob basis followed the same pattern, remaining at a discount to the CP in nearly all months over the same period.
Market fundamentals reshape trade flows
A decrease in US demand for BD has pushed suppliers to lean more heavily on exports to bridge structural gaps, though this strategy has contributed to downward price pressure.
US BD exports climbed to record levels this year, totaling 142,100t year-to-date through November, up by 66pc from 85,400t during the same period last year, Argus data shows. Nearly 54pc of these exports headed to Asia-Pacific, the world's largest consuming region. Mexico accounted for 44pc, a trend supported by shifting derivative production from the US to Mexico. Europe received the smallest share at 2pc, although volumes could rise as traders capitalize on the logistical advantages of co-loading BD with ethylene shipments bound for the Mediterranean.
On a monthly contract basis, US BD prices have sustained a better value option than rival European supplies for delivery into northeast Asia. In December, the US CP maintained a discount of about $200/t compared with Europe's monthly contract price. This was wider than the estimated mid-$100s/t discount on a spot basis.
Despite the US' low-cost position and growing exposure to seaborne exports, Europe has shipped almost twice as much volume to Asia-Pacific from January-November this year. A key driver of this trend is China's taxes on US imports, which gives other regions preferential market access.
There have been discussions of exporting tons on a term basis to northeast Asia, but the US would have to compete for business with western Europe, Brazil and intra-regional suppliers in Asia-Pacific. The US will continue to prioritize spot shipments elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, primarily South Korea and Taiwan, unless China reverses course and grants tariff waivers on US-origin imports.
