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Latest market news

Viewpoint: European jet faces supply-side threats

  • Market: Oil products
  • 06/01/26

Supply-side uncertainties are likely to keep European jet fuel prices turbulent in 2026, with a much quieter outlook for demand.

The European jet market in 2025 revealed a vulnerability to supply shocks, even to some that never fully materialised. Cif northwest Europe prices ranged between $622/t and $846/t, and refining margins between $14.60/bl and $41.40/bl.

Oversupply in the summer, bolstered by profitable arbitrage economics from Asia-Pacific, pressed down on prices in August.

By contrast, tighter supply in October-November boosted prices to some of the highest levels all year. Weaker refinery output in Europe and Asia-Pacific choked global supply, and east of Suez refiners favoured eastbound exports over Europe.

The coming year could see similar supply-side fundamentals. The European refining industry is lacking spare capacity, after three permanent refinery closures in 2025.

The recent closure of Phillips 66's 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery and the upcoming closure of Valero's 145,000 b/d Benecia refinery will tighten Californian supply, requiring transpacific imports. This could tighten the markets in Asia-Pacific that supplement Europe with jet when arbitrage is viable. European jet imports from China and India could become untenable if refiners there continue to process Russian crude, because of new EU sanctions that will ban import of refined products made from Russian grades in January.

Even the unrealised threat of supply shocks rattled jet fuel prices in 2025. The brief conflict between Iran and Israel in June sent jet fuel prices to their highest since 2022.

Talks regarding peace in Ukraine added yet more volatility as 2025 closed out. Jet fuel crack spreads rose to a two-year high and then fell to a five-week low within one week, even though there was no specific talk of relaxing sanctions and more sanctions are imminent.

A return of east-west shipping to the Red Sea in 2026 could restrain jet price volatility. Jet fuel takes around two weeks quicker to arrive in Europe when sent through the Suez Canal than around the Cape of Good Hope, meaning imports could respond more quicker to supply shortfalls. Yemen-based Houthi militants indicated a pause to attacks on commercial vessels, although there has not yet been a mass return to the shorter route.

Another calming influence on supply could be growing exports from Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. The plant broke its monthly record for jet exports three times in 2025, according to Kpler. Although freight is costly from west Africa to Europe, Dangote could be well-placed to help relieve supply tightness in 2026.

Bland demand

European air travel is forecast to grow in 2026, but at a slower pace.

Flight numbers are expected to rise by 3.1pc to 11.4mn in 2026, according to Eurocontrol data, after growing by 3.6pc in 2025. European air travel demand growth, in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), will slow to 3.8pc in 2026 from 5pc in 2025, according to forecasts by the International Air Transport Association (Iata).

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates and advancements in aircraft fuel efficiency will only drag slightly on fossil jet demand growth. The proportion of SAF mandated in EU jet blends will stay at 2pc and rise to around 4pc in the UK in 2026, so growth in SAF consumption does not yet appear significant enough to counterbalance overall demand growth.

Longstanding issues in aircraft production keep thwarting fuel efficiency improvements. Iata expects the global fleet to become just 1pc more fuel efficient in 2025, only half of recent average annual efficiency gains.

Fossil jet demand in north and central Europe and the Mediterranean will average 863,000 b/d in 2026, 1.2pc higher year-on-year, Argus Consulting predicts.

By Amaar Khan

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07/01/26

Mexico denies boosting oil shipments to Cuba

Mexico denies boosting oil shipments to Cuba

Mexico City, 7 January (Argus) — Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday that the country has not increased oil shipments to Cuba, even as Mexico has become a key supplier following recent disruptions in Venezuela. "We are not sending more oil than we have sent historically," Sheinbaum said during her daily morning press conference. "Of course, with the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has obviously become an important supplier. Before, this was Venezuela." Sheinbaum was responding to reporters' questions about whether Mexico had become Cuba's main source of crude since the US tightened sanctions on Venezuelan exports in mid-December and detained Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Mexico has supplied crude to Cuba for decades under commercial agreements and humanitarian aid programs, Sheinbaum said. Current deliveries remain within those frameworks. "It is part of the contract and also part of the aid that has been provided historically," she said. The president highlighted Mexico's longstanding energy ties with Cuba, including a $350mn investment in the Cienfuegos refinery in 1994 and technical cooperation agreements signed by state-owned Pemex in 2012. Mexico also forgave about 70pc of Cuba's debt with Bancomext in 2013, much of it linked to hydrocarbons trade. Sheinbaum earlier framed the shipments as consistent with Mexico's foreign policy and humanitarian commitments, while acknowledging the geopolitical sensitivity given Cuba's strained relations with the US, Mexico's top trading partner. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump touts oil meetings after Venezuela ouster

06/01/26
News
06/01/26

Trump touts oil meetings after Venezuela ouster

Washington, 6 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump and his cabinet are making the case for US oil companies to invest billions of dollars into Venezuela's oil sector, with meetings scheduled with industry executives in the coming days. Trump has started previewing upcoming meetings with oil industry executives, who he is counting on to deliver an economic revival in the South American country. Trump ousted Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro through a surprise military strike over the weekend, and he threatened to attack again if Venezuela does not deliver on his desired policies. "I'm also meeting with oil companies, let's go, you know what that's about," Trump said on Tuesday at a retreat for Republicans in the US House of Representatives. "We've got a lot of oil to drill which is gonna bring down oil prices even further." Venezuela's vice president Delcy Rodriguez was confirmed as interim president after the US captured Maduro in the military strike. Trump has floated a timeline under which elections will not be held until the turnaround of the country's oil sector, which fell into decline after years of under-investment and sanctions. Venezuela produced 934,000 b/d in November, according to an average of Opec secondary sources including Argus . "What we want to do is fix up the oil, fix up the country, bring the country back and then have elections," Trump said on 4 January. Trump's cabinet has also been part of the recent outreach to the oil sector. US energy secretary Chris Wright plans to meet on Wednesday with executives from "several" US oil companies at an energy conference that Goldman Sachs is hosting in Miami, Florida, according to the US Department of Energy. US interior secretary Doug Burgum said on an interview on Fox News that were business opportunities arising from the "synergy" between Venezuela's oil output and the US refining sector. The Trump administration focused on removing Maduro from power — first by enticing him to leave and then by force — without considering what would come next, according the former US envoy in Caracas, James Story. "Apparently, the objective now is oil," Story said at an event on Tuesday held by the Washington think tank the Atlantic Council. "How we get there is unclear to me, unclear to the oil companies, and [it] certainly will be unclear to the insurers and everything else." Chevron and US energy companies interested in working in Venezuela will need waivers from existing US sanctions, which Trump imposed in January 2019. The US in 2022 granted a waiver to Chevron to allow it to lift oil from a joint venture with PdV. The Trump administration removed that waiver in April 2025, only to re-grant it under more restrictive terms last August. More waivers for US companies are likely in the works, an energy industry insider said, who said that it was "more a matter of when not if". If sanctions are lifted, Venezuela will see the return of oil field service companies and "wildcatters, bootstrapping things together to get things online and get majors in", the insider said. State leaders say they see economic potential across the energy sector if there is a revival of oil production from Venezuela. "Many executives have called me and said, 'Hey look, we're willing to go into Venezuela if the oil companies go in,'" Louisiana governor Jeff Landry (R) said during an interview with Fox News. "Men and women are ready to go down there and to supply our refineries along the Gulf Coast with the crude we need to keep gas prices low." Trump suggested on Monday there could be federal government support for oil industry investment in Venezuela. Oil companies investing in restoring oil infrastructure will be "reimbursed by us or through revenue," Trump told NBC News on Monday. Even so, the industry will likely require further assurances given the risks involved. "The fact is, Venezuela is a risky place for doing business," Atlantic Council senior research fellow Iria Puyosa said. "Those who have appetites for risky business are already there, and those who want to do business in an open, transparent market are not going to try." By Chris Knight, Haik Gugarats and Sarah Tucker Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Pemex Olmeca refinery hikes diesel exports

06/01/26
News
06/01/26

Pemex Olmeca refinery hikes diesel exports

Mexico City, 6 January (Argus) — Mexico increased exports of ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) cargoes from state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery in November and December, after recently restarting shipments, according to vessel-tracking data and market sources. Mexico had already exported its third and fourth ULSD cargoes in November, according to Kpler data, and added a fifth in November. Four additional cargoes were exported in December. Pemex had previously exported ULSD to the US and Central America in March and April. The MR tanker Clearocean Milano loaded 300,000 bl of ULSD at the Dos Bocas port on 27 November. It discharged about 99,000 bl at a terminal near Newport, Rhode Island, and another 200,000 bl near Portland, Maine, Kpler data show. The MR tanker Lakshmil loaded a similar volume on 22 November, discharging about 60,000 bl near New York and 230,000 bl near Providence, Rhode Island. Three more MR tankers loaded ULSD at the Dos Bocas port in December. The Sti Bronx loaded about 300,000 bl of ULSD and discharged volumes across several US ports, including Cape Canaveral and Jacksonville, Florida; Charleston, South Carolina; and Providence. The Nord Victorious loaded around 300,000 bl of ULSD at Dos Bocas and discharged cargoes in San Juan and Yabucoa, Puerto Rico. The Strimon also loaded about 300,000 bl and discharged roughly 120,000 bl at the Everglades port in Miami, Florida, though the bill of lading for the net discharge has yet to be confirmed, Kpler data show. Construction of the Olmeca refinery began under former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, but the project faced significant challenges. Construction costs had more than doubled to $21bn as of 31 December 2024, according to Pemex data. In recent months, Pemex said the refinery has begun operating both refining trains, with crude processing rates exceeding 50pc of capacity. Olmeca was initially highlighted as a crucial element in the government's strategy for road fuel self-sufficiency. But Pemex's trading arm PMI has also explored profitable ULSD export opportunities in Florida, the Caribbean and Central America, according to market sources. These regions rely heavily on imported diesel because of infrastructure limitations. In September, the former head of PMI, Margarita Perez, stepped down from her role as director. Perez's replacement was Adan Garcia, the former head of non-tax and hydrocarbons revenue at Mexico's finance ministry. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

No upstream gain from US' Venezuela intervention

05/01/26
News
05/01/26

No upstream gain from US' Venezuela intervention

Washington, 5 January (Argus) — The largest US military intervention in Latin America in decades will not significantly boost Venezuela's oil production in the short or medium term even though the White House is improvising a new, oil-centered approach to Caracas. US president Donald Trump has deployed US special forces to remove Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro from power and transport him to face drug trafficking charges in a US court in New York. But the Trump administration has decided to work with the remnants of the Maduro government, calculating that it will now bend Caracas to its will to address US immigration concerns and to carve out a bigger foothold for US companies in Venezuela's oil industry. "We're gonna have the big oil companies go in, and they're gonna fix the infrastructure, they're gonna invest money," Trump told reporters Sunday night. Like many of Trump's initiatives, his Venezuela policy falls into the category he once called having "concepts of a plan" — a complex endeavor where he outlines an end goal but not the means of getting there. A meaningful turnaround in Venezuela's upstream industry requires costly repairs to basic energy infrastructure covering everything from pipelines to power supplies, as well as access to the latest equipment and a skilled labor force that is ready to go. Venezuela's opposition, centered around Maria Corina Machado, laid out a detailed plan for opening Venezuela's oil industry to foreign investment. The plan had the input of former PdV executives and Venezuelan economists forced into exile. But the Trump administration has signalled it has no desire to help Machado take the reins of power in Venezuela. "What we want to do is fix up the oil, fix up the country, bring the country back, and then have elections," Trump said, expressing doubts about Machado's capacity to govern the country. Machado is "fantastic" but "we have short-term things that have to be addressed right away," by working with the existing government, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said on Sunday. The "short-term things" on the Trump administration's agenda almost certainly involve Venezuelan migrants living in the US, whom it wants to return to Venezuela. Trump on Sunday night doubled down on his comment that the US would "run" Venezuela under its interim president Delcy Rodriguez, who served as Maduro's vice president and oil minister. "We need total access," Trump said, outlining his demands for Rodriguez. "We need access to the oil, and to other things in their country that allow us to rebuild their country." Serving as a loyal servant of Washington would be quite a departure for the regime that made "anti-imperialism" a key tenet of its messaging in the past 27 years. For now, key figures of the regime, including interior minister Diosdado Cabello, are rallying behind Rodriguez, who expressed willingness to cooperate with the White House before being sworn in as the interim president on Monday. Rodriguez took the oath of office in the presence of her brother, the powerful National Assembly president Jorge Rodriguez and Maduro's son Nicolas. Rodriguez immediately signed a decree granting "extraordinary powers" to Cabello-led police forces and to the military, led by defense minister Vladimir Padrino. Maduro on Monday made his first appearance at the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, pleading not guilty to the US criminal charges and declaring himself a "prisoner of war". Rodriguez has so far not named a replacement for herself in the position of oil minister. PdV operations continue apace. A Chevron representative in Caracas told Argus , "PdV is bulletproof!". Venezuela's crude output was 934,000 b/d in November, according to an average of Opec secondary sources including Argus . An embargo on Venezuelan crude shipments transported by tankers sanctioned by the US remains in place. But as many as 16 tankers are believed to have left Venezuela in defiance of the US blockade since Maduro's capture, according to vessel tracking website TankerTrackers.com. A sustained disruption to Venezuelan oil exports would primarily affect the global heavy-sour crude market. Chinese independent refiners are preparing to switch to Iranian, Russian or unsanctioned grades, or even lowering their run rates if Venezuelan crude becomes unavailable. Any reconfiguration of Venezuela's oil industry would pit the US against China, whose state-owned firms have been unable to collect on $12bn worth of loan-for-oil schemes because of the US sanctions and Venezuela's falling output. Then there is also the matter of potentially getting the US military involved in another quagmire that Trump has vowed to avoid after costly US engagements in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. The Trump administration says that its military operation in Venezuela is in fact not a military operation but a domestic law enforcement matter that requires no consent from Congress. "The whole foreign policy apparatus thinks everything is Libya, everything is Iraq, everything is Afghanistan," Rubio said. This is not the Middle East, and our mission here is very different. This is the western hemisphere." By Haik Gugarats and Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Venezuela raid has little impact on asphalt, so far

05/01/26
News
05/01/26

Venezuela raid has little impact on asphalt, so far

Houston, 5 January (Argus) — The weekend's US capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the Americas asphalt market. Venezuelan asphalt is still sanctioned, and some market participants do not expect a new waiver anytime soon. Uncertainty around who will run the Venezuelan government also complicates the picture. US president Donald Trump said Washington would temporarily run the country and overhaul its oil sector, but US secretary of state Marco Rubio has since clarified that the US will seek to influence Caracas' policy decisions rather than take over the administration. The US will maintain its "oil blockade" against Venezuela to maintain leverage, Rubio said. Chevron remains the only company with a US waiver to import Venezuelan crude, which supports asphalt production. Chevron imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, based on data from Kpler ship tracking. A rise in Chevron's US crude imports could be the first step that could potentially change the asphalt market. US Gulf refiners' appetite for heavy crude remains strong, as Pemex has reduced total exports and increased refinery run rates . Rising Venezuelan crude exports to the US would likely result in more asphalt production, which in turn could pressure US asphalt prices. Gulf asphalt slipped to $315/short ton (st) on 2 January, its lowest level since early February 2021. Prices have been pulled down in recent weeks by declining crude values, a widening light-heavy spread and pressure from rising Colombian asphalt exports. Colombia has filled the gap left by Venezuela and started to boost production, storage and marketing capacity of asphalt last year . The country exported nearly 550,000st of asphalt in 2025, a 20pc increase from 2024 and nearly double 2022 exports. Venezuelan exports, meanwhile, rose last year by 62pc to about 489,000st following a sanctions waiver that was revoked in May. Should Venezuelan asphalt return and Colombia continues to boost its production, buyers could see significantly lower prices. "All roads lead to lower asphalt prices, it's just a matter of when," one market participant said. By Sarah Tucker Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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