Nickel prices on trading exchange platforms hit new highs on 6 January, bolstered by robust sentiment on the back of macroeconomic developments and potential changes to Indonesia's mining plans.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices hit $18,045/t on 6 January, up by 7pc from a day earlier and exceeding $18,000/t for the first time in 15 months. Prices started to climb from $14,430/t on 17 December 2025, surging by 20pc on 6 January in just 12 trading days.
Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) nickel prices hit their 8pc daily limit on 6 January as well.
Nickel prices have been driven by rising copper prices. Copper prices surged above $13,000/t to hit a new high because financial investors were concerned over tight global availability of copper refined metal stemming from the US' capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. The metals sector could continue on an uptrend if geopolitical tensions escalate further, driven by risk-averse sentiment.
End-user demand is not the major driver for the nickel price surge, but the increase in nickel prices have boosted prices of nickel downstream products.
Argus-assessed prices for stainless steel 304 2.0mm cold-rolled coil rose to 13,400-13,500 yuan/t ($1,914-1,929/t) on 7 January from Yn12,800-12,900/t ($1,829-1,843/t) on 18 December 2025. Demand strengthened slightly because end-users were concerned about further increases in stainless steel prices. A major Chinese stainless steel mill raised its ex-works prices by Yn100/t on 23 December 2025 and by Yn300/t on 5 January, reflecting a rise in production costs due to higher nickel prices.
Most market participants expect the nickel price outlook in 2026 to be steady from 2025 because they do not anticipate significant changes in supply and demand fundamentals. The average nickel price was $15,349/t in 2025, down from $17,049/t in 2024 because of an increase in market supply, according to Argus data. But price upsides are possible this year, since major producer Indonesia may introduce policies that could reduce supply or increase production costs.
Indonesia could also cut its nickel ore work plan and budget (RKAB) to 250mn t in 2026 from around 379mn t in 2025, market participants said. This potential cut comes despite expectations that Indonesian nickel ore consumption will increase to around 330mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) in 2026, up by 11pc from 2025, Argus' estimates show.
Indonesia's trade ministry on 17 December also issued a ministerial regulation on procedures for setting the export benchmark price (HPE) and reference price (HR) for mining and metallic products. This has renewed market discussions that Indonesia may again explore the possibility of such tariffs, putting upward pressure on nickel prices.
