The first-tier Australian seaborne premium hard coking coal price jumped to a 17-month high in January on the back of persistent supply restraints from Australia and steady demand from India.
Argus' month-to-date assessment for Australian premium low-volatile (PLV) hard coking coal rose to $227.38/t fob Australia in January 2026, up by $15.25/t from the full-month average in December 2025. This marks the highest level since July 2024, when the Argus monthly PLV HCC price was $236.53/t.
The boost in prices is mostly supply-driven, because ongoing heavy rains and flooding have continued to disrupt mining operations across key producing regions, notably Queensland.
Several Australian producers declared force majeure on the back of adverse weather and operational issues. AMCI, Stanmore and GM3 declared force majeure on shipments last week, while Glencore and Coronado are also facing weather and safety-related production constraints.
Vessel congestion at Australian coal ports also intensified significantly. Queues increased to 108 vessels on 20 January, a trader said. The buildup comes on the back of heavy rains and flooding that disrupted port and mining activities, especially in Queensland. The expanding backlog has left several cargoes scheduled for December 2025-loading still waiting to dock, market sources said.
The spot market could continue to remain under pressure in the coming weeks until supply normalises, some market participants said. The cyclone season in Australia normally lasts until February, and supply should stabilise by March, a trader said.
Demand from key buyer India stands at around one Panamax vessel, at the time of writing.
Steel prices in India have been on an uptrend as the market rebounds on the back of improving macroeconomic conditions and stronger demand. The recent introduction of safeguard measures are also a key driver, traders and mills said, because these protections are expected to boost domestic steel consumption by limiting imports and supporting local producers. The combined effect of stronger demand expectations and policy support has helped boost market sentiment, and buyers are showing greater willingness to restock at higher levels, a trader said.
But Chinese buyers remain largely absent from the seaborne Australian premium hard coking coal market. Australian PLV cargoes are not workable in China at current elevated levels, several market participants said. End-users have continued to rely on portside inventories, domestic supply and Mongolian imports to meet their needs for raw materials. Chinese steelmakers have shown limited willingness to purchase seaborne premium cargoes given the rally in fob Australia prices, several traders said, citing both cost concerns and diverse alternatives.
