US hot-rolled coil (HRC) buyers are increasingly turning to imports as they face elevated domestic prices and long lead times driven by a tight supply environment.
US president Donald Trump in March 2025 imposed 25pc global steel import tariffs, which doubled to 50pc in June. The tariffs effectively shut out much of the world's steel, leading import volumes to fall precipitously. US steel buyers before the tariffs had relied on imports as a hedge against domestic price increases, with supplies from Canada and Mexico comparable in price and lead times to the Midwest and southern US.
HRC imports totaled 1.11mn t in January-November 2025, 42pc lower than the same period in 2024, according to the latest data from the US Census Bureau.
Since the imposition of the tariffs, US mills have increased spot prices steadily, especially in recent months as mills focused on increased contract supply commitments to start 2026. That contract supply increase has come at the expense of spot availability, to the point where some mills are stretched thin for the first months of the year.
The Argus US HRC spot price rose to $964.25/short ton during the week ended 30 January, up from $910/st during the week ended 2 January.
US mills short on spot HRC
Less HRC production is being committed to spot availability even as US operating rates rise.
The monthly operating rate for all steel production averaged 76pc in January 2026, according to American Iron and Steel Institute data. That was up slightly from the 74pc average a year earlier, but buyers said less of the current operating rate was committed to HRC spot supply because of mills' pivot to larger contracual commitments.
The HRC spot market became so tight in January that just a handful of minor outages and backlogs exacerbated the poor availability. Some mills turned buyers awayin the aftermath of the shortages.
US HRC lead times grew to 6.4 weeks in the week ending 30 January, up from 5.4 weeks for the week ending 2 January, according to Argus data. Those lead times reflected transactions from mills that could participate in the spot market, while other mills that could not participate told buyers in January that they would not have spot availability until the end of the first quarter at the earliest.
Eventually, US mills set a price floor of $950/st to even begin spot HRC discussions during the week ending 23 January, even though average prices were still below that level at the time.
Buyers evaluated import availability in January as an alternative to rising domestic lead times and prices, but overseas mills and US importers had few satisfactory options.
Import momentum remains slow
US buyers are slowly turning back to the import market as foreign prices and lead times begin to compare more favorably to domestic supply, but issues remain.
January offers for HRC imports from regions such as southeast Asia and Turkey were as much as $100/st lower than US domestic price levels in recent weeks. Buyers could not get the cheaper imports quickly, though, with delivery for late January offers timed for the middle of the second quarter.
Such long delivery times were previously disqualifying because buyers could not be sure imported supply would still be competitive with domestic prices when trying to anticipate the market months in advance. But with US mills now quoting months-long lead times as well, import considerations have transformed from a gamble on beating the market to a simple issue of maintaining reliable inventory from as many sources as possible.
Some US mills also continue to push domestic prices high enough that buyers are confident imported supply will still be cheaper when it arrives months from now.
