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US soy volatile on possible China buying

  • Market: Agriculture
  • 06/02/26

US soybean futures contracts briefly spiked early today as the market adjusted to signs that China may again be resuming US soybean purchasing.

The May delivered Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean contract gained $0.174/bushel (bu) within an hour of opening this morning, before shedding those gains and then some, closing the day down by $0.042/bu at $11.28/bu. The May CBOT contract still closed the day slightly above Thursday's closing value, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains this week.

Basis gains for new crop soybeans loaded in the Pacific Northwest were also reported today, further support for what market sources tell Argus is Chinese buyers re-engaging with the US. Buyers may have contracted overnight for as many as seven cargoes for April-May loading in the US Gulf, according to sources.

Friday's trades follow an unanticipated boost to futures prices on 4 February from a social media post from US president Donald Trump declaring China would increase its US soybean purchases by 8mn t.

If China has returned to US soybean markets, it raises questions regarding the outlook for US-Chinese soybean trade going forward.

Currently, China has an agreement to purchase 12mn t of US soybeans by the end of this month, and another 25mn t per-year for the next three years. As of 29 January, total US soybean sales to China reached 9.89mn t for this marketing year, with 100,000t sold during that week alone, according to US Department of Agriculture data. This seems to be at odds with US treasury secretary Scott Bessent's claim on 20 January that China had completed its purchases of the first 12mn t.

If China did purchase more US soybeans this morning, in line with Trump's claim the country would buy another 8mn t, it is unclear how these sales would tally towards the current agreement.

If they are considered an extension of the current 12mn t agreement, then that might mean China will move to secure these volumes before the end of February. If not, they might be added to the 25mn t obligation for 2026. That would put US soybean sales to China at 33mn t for 2026, which would be the most since the 2020-21 marketing year.

Either way, Trump's claim and the potential re-engaging of China in US soybean markets is likely to detach the markets understanding of the US-China soybean trade agreement from its stated terms. That could mean more volatility and uncertainty for commodity prices moving forward.


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