Global power demand is set to grow by more than 3 pc/yr on average over the rest of this decade, but coal's share of the generation mix is likely to be eroded by gains in nuclear, renewables and natural gas, said the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Electricity 2026 report.
Global power demand growth continues to rise rapidly, supported by the increasing electrification of industry, transportation and the buildings sectors, the report released on 6 February said. Growing consumption is also coming from some of the most dynamic segments of global economies, such as AI, data centres and evolving technological innovations, it added.
The share of renewables and nuclear in the world's power mix rising to 50pc by the end of this decade, with natural gas also growing, according to IEA forecasts.
"Global electricity generation from renewables — boosted by record deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) — is now in the process of overtaking generation from coal, after virtually drawing level with it in 2025." Coal accounted for around 33pc of the global energy mix in 2025.
Emerging economies continue to be the main pillar of demand growth, accounting for nearly 80pc of additional electricity consumption through 2030, the report said.
India and southeast Asia are increasingly set to drive rising energy demand over the coming decade, but China is forecast to remain the single largest contributor to global electricity demand growth through 2030, accounting for close to 50pc of the increase.
"The momentum behind low-emissions sources of generation continues to 2030, by which time renewables and nuclear are together set to generate 50pc of global electricity, up from 42pc today," the report said.
Renewable output will grow by about 1,000TWh annually through 2030, with solar PV alone accounting for over 600 TWh, the IEA forecasts. This means that renewable generation is forecast to rise at a rate of 8 pc/yr in percentage terms.
Globally, coal-fired generation remained broadly flat in 2025, but regional trends diverged in ways not seen in previous years, the IEA said. Coal use declined in India and China due to slower electricity demand growth and the rapid expansion of renewable, the report said.
But coal use increased in the US given higher natural gas prices compared with 2024 and a slowdown in the retirement of coal plants, supported by federal policy, which promoted the power sector to raise coal use, it added.
In the EU, record solar generation was partially offset by weak hydropower and wind output, limiting the overall decline in coal use.
A forecast decline in coal's share of the global energy mix in the coming years is in line with projections made in the IEA's Coal 2025 report, released in December 2025. Coal demand likely reached a plateau in 2025, that report previously said. But global coal demand could rise above the forecasts, should China post faster-than-expected growth in electricity consumption, slower integration of renewables or strong investment in coal gasification, the IEA previously said.
China, India import less coal in 2025
China's thermal coal imports fell for the first time in three years in 2025 on weak demand and ample availability of domestic coal.
China, the world's largest thermal coal importer, received 356.6mn t in 2025, down by 12pc on the year, according to customs data released last month.
But China's new and reactivated coal power project proposals and coal power capacity additions hit record highs in 2025 despite a decline in coal power generation, according to a report published by independent research organisation the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and non-governmental organisation Global Energy Monitor (GEM) in February 2026.
New and reactivated Chinese coal power project proposals totalled 161GW in 2025, hitting a record high. The country started up a total of 78GW of coal power capacity in 2025, marking the highest level in a decade.
Meanwhile, Indian imports of thermal coal declined for the second straight year in 2025, given that weak demand from power utilities and higher domestic coal output continued to weigh on buying activity. India, which is the world's second-largest thermal coal importer, received 160.15mn t of thermal coal in 2025, down by 3pc, or 5.2mn t, from a year earlier, according to data released by shipbroker Interocean last month.
In its latest report, the IEA said that "The Age of Electricity" requires a fast and efficient expansion of grids and system flexibility to securely and cost-effectively integrate a changing mix of generation, demand and storage.
Newer sources of demand, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps and highly concentrated loads, such as data centres, are expected to grow rapidly. At the same time, more than 2,500 GW worth of projects, encompassing renewables, storage and projects with large loads, remain stalled in grid connection queues worldwide due to a lag in funding, the IEA said.
By Andrew Jones
