News
22/10/26
Iran claims end to gasoline imports despite shortfall
Dubai, 22 October (Argus) — Iran's president said this week that the country no
longer needs to import gasoline to meet domestic demand, thanks to a renewed
push by the authorities to curb fuel consumption. But refinery outages and
continued fuel smuggling cast serious doubt on those claims. President Masoud
Pezeshkian said that "fuel conservation and management measures" had ended the
country's need for gasoline imports, saving it $12bn/yr. The measures Pezeshkian
referenced rest largely on a tiered pricing system that Tehran has tightened in
stages since December, cutting subsidised allocations and raising prices for the
heaviest users (see table) . The latest change, introduced in early September,
doubled the price of gasoline bought above the subsidised quota to 100,000
rials/l ($0.04/l) from IR50,000/l. The higher prices do appear to have curbed
consumption. Domestic demand has fallen to around 134mn l/d this month from
about 144mn l/d in August-September, according to state-owned products
distributor NIOPDC. Part of the decline reflects a shift towards compressed
natural gas (CNG). Daily CNG consumption rose to 16.7mn m³ in October from
14.7mn m³ in August, displacing an estimated 2mn l/d of gasoline demand,
according to Iranian officials. At the same time, domestic gasoline production
increased. Output averaged 135mn l/d in late August and early September,
according to official figures, up from an average of 122mn l/d in the first five
months of the Iranian year, corresponding to late March to late August. The
increase resulted from higher refinery runs and reconfiguration projects, NIORDC
head Mohammad-Sadegh Azimifar said last month. These included sending surplus
naphtha from the Persian Gulf Star (PGS) condensate splitter to underused
gasoline units at the 375,000 b/d Isfahan, 220,000 b/d Tehran and 110,000 b/d
Tabriz refineries. Even at those elevated levels, production remained about 10mn
l/d below peak summer demand of 145mn l/d, although it would have broadly
matched current demand. Refinery outages, however, have since reduced production
capacity. An explosion at the 700,000 b/d Abadan refinery in late September cut
gasoline production capacity to about 8mn l/d from 11mn l/d, with repairs
expected to take at least two months. The disruption added to broader supply
losses, including at the 55,000 b/d Lavan refinery, which lost about half of its
3mn l/d gasoline capacity after it was hit on the first day of the US-Iran
ceasefire in April, forcing other plants to raise runs. Iran also continues to
face a chronic smuggling problem, with subsidised fuel diverted to neighbouring
countries where prices are significantly higher. Tehran has responded by
introducing identity checks for motorists using emergency fuel cards at filling
stations. The cards previously allowed anonymous purchases and accounted for
40-45pc of refuelling transactions, well above the government's 5pc ceiling. But
Iranian officials estimate that around 25mn l/d of petroleum products continue
to be smuggled across the country's borders, with diesel accounting for most of
the illicit trade. Limited options Iran also has little scope to raise gasoline
production further. Feedstock availability is already under pressure following
damage sustained during the early stages of the US-Iran war to facilities linked
to the South Pars gas field, which supplies condensate to PGS. And two new
splitters, the South Adish and Mehr Persian Gulf units, are not expected to
start operations before the end of the Iranian year in March at the earliest.
Against that backdrop, market participants say Iran still needs to import
between three and seven Medium Range (MR) gasoline cargoes a month to cover its
near-term supply gap. This is equivalent to around 0.9mn-2.1mn bl/month, or
4.7mn-11mn l/d. But sanctions and the US naval blockade imposed on Iran since
July make those volumes difficult to secure. Market participants say some
gasoline is being transferred between vessels off Shinas, Oman, before
US-sanctioned tankers carry it through the strait of Hormuz to Iran. The trade,
however, is constrained by a shortage of ships willing to take part in the
transfers and deal with sanctioned tankers serving Iranian ports, one shipbroker
said. By Rithika Krishna Iran gasoline quota and price changes liters Effective
Tier 1 quota Price (IR/l) Tier 2 quota Price (IR/l) Total quota (l/mo)
Above-quota price (IR/l) Dec-25 60 15,000 100 30,000 160 50,000 Mar-26 60 15,000
70 30,000 130 50,000 Jul-26 60 15,000 50 30,000 110 50,000 Sep-26 60 15,000 50
30,000 110 100,000 Price in Iranian rials/litre (IR/l) Source: Ministry Send
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