The US Supreme Court's ruling to strike down most US import tariffs implemented last year could boost organic corn imports, but the US government could reimpose tariffs through other laws.
The Supreme Court released its 6-3 decision Friday that blocked President Donald Trump's ability to use tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump threatened in a press conference to impose 10pc tariffs under other legal justifications, which leaves the future of tariffs unclear, but the market was already anticipating impacts.
Organic corn imports fell by 27pc in the 2024-25 marketing year ended 31 August because of strong supplies earlier in the season, but the US organic corn market has been tight since then. US organic corn imports were also 17pc behind pace for the first five months of the 2025-26marketing year.
Organic corn imports to the US from the Black Sea in particular could see an increase following the court ruling since it's the only region with significant excess volumes. Exporters in the Black Sea kept corn export volumes low for the start of the 2025-26 marketing yearbecause of the difficulty competing with US-grown supplies, but the end of the 15pc tariff enacted under IEEPA will make them more competitive. Cheaper organic corn imports will weigh on domestic organic corn prices because US farmers will have to compete with lower import prices.
Argentina does not have significant volumes left to export, but the end of tariffs would allow buyers to boost bids into Argentina. This could encourage more organic corn planting during the South American country's next planting cycle. Argentinian exporters are offering organic corn for export in June after their early harvest, and the end of tariffs will boost revenues for organic growers in Argentina.
Organic soybean impact subdued
The end of US import tariffs is unlikely to boost organic soybean import volumes, but will lower the cost paid by importers, market contacts said.
US organic soybean imports continued to grow despite the tariffs, Argus data show, up by 41pc in the 2024-25 marketing year ended 31 August and up by 54pc for the first five months of the 2025-26 marketing year.
Strong demand, especially from the organic poultry sector, drove up import volumes even as tariffs pushed up costs. The volume imported in recent months weighed heavily on prices and put the spot market in a surplus, so exporters are unlikely to increase volume further. But the end of the tariffs will reduce costs, which will translate into lower import values.
Cheaper imported meal will weigh on domestic meal prices, which will cut into domestic crush margins. But imported soybeans will no longer be subject to tariffs, which will add to returns for crushers who rely on imported soybeans. Canadian soybean exporters will be unaffected, since they already paid no tariffs, but Canadian meal exports to the US may fall if Canada is no longer the only country that can export organic soymeal to the US tariff-free.
