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European propane hit fresh high on US-Iran war

  • Market: LPG
  • 04/03/26

Northwest European propane price surged to a fresh multi-year high yesterday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt regional operations and deliveries, tightening global propane supplies.

The Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) large cargo propane price rose by $63.75/t to $715/t on 3 March, the highest level since January 2023, and following a $87/t increase on 2 March. Prices have risen by more than $150/t, nearly 30pc, from the close on Friday 27 February, before the US-Israel attack on Iran and the subsequent response from Tehran.

European buyers appear increasingly concerned about the duration and severity of the conflict, with the market pricing in a geopolitical risk premium.

Spot public market activity also returned in the European window after nearly a week of subdued trading. Two buyers appeared in the afternoon trading window on 3 March, likely in an attempt to secure cargoes before prices rise further but no offers emerged.

Price increases are driven by severe disruptions to tanker traffic in the strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical energy shipping chokepoints. Some 27pc of global LPG exports pass through the strait, or 41.55mn t out of total seaborne exports of 149.44mn t, based on 2025 trade flows. A large number of tankers remain in the region waiting either to enter or exit the strait, amid heightened security concerns and operational uncertainty.

But eight tankers were able to transit the strait raising some hopes about a gradual shipping return in the region.

US president Donald Trump said Washington would offer political risk insurance and naval escort support for ships transiting the area, in an attempt to support energy flows.

The possibility that traffic could be at least partially restored, even as conflict continues, contributed to steady international propane swaps on 4 March. The April cif ARA propane swap was trading around $588-590/t in early morning after settling at $589/t on 3 March.

The equivalent AFEI contract was trading near $675-680/t, down slightly from $682/t on the 3 March close, while the Saudi Aramco-linked CP swap edged lower to around $603/t, from $613/t the previous day.

Sharp gains recorded in recent days could just as quickly reverse if shipping flows through the strait begin to normalise.


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