The Spanish PVB gas hub has not yet factored in the risk of a potential halt of US exports to Spain.
US president Donald Trump on Tuesday said that he "could stop everything having to do with Spain, all business having to do with Spain, have the right to stop it, embargoes".
Trump also said he has told US treasury secretary Scott Bessent "to cut off all dealings" with Spain, and Bessent told Trump that "the Supreme Court reaffirmed [his] ability to implement an embargo".
Trump's declarations came after Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez decided to not authorise the use of US military bases in Spain to conduct operations against Iran.
A halt in US exports to Spain would severely affect the Spanish LNG mix. The US accounted for 45pc of Spain's seaborne supply and 30pc of the total gas and LNG mix in 2025.
But the possibility of a halt in US LNG deliveries to Spain seems remote, judging by the lack of response in PVB prices on Wednesday. The PVB front-month price even narrowed its basis to the TTF, holding flat at 14:04 CET from €0.40/MWh at Tuesday's close.
"It is not possible to engage in commercial retaliation or business relationships" with individual member states, the European Commission's executive vice-president Teresa Ribera said on Wednesday. "The trade negotiations of each and every one of the 27 member states of the European Union are the responsibility of the commission and it is not possible to divide or fragment them."
Ribera's comments echoed those of German chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday saying that the EU will negotiate a trade agreement with the US collectively as a bloc, including Spain, "or not at all".
PVB prices react most to LNG disruption
The PVB market has experienced the sharpest increase among all European hubs in response to the tightening of the global LNG supply following the shut-in of Qatari LNG production and the halt in transit through the strait of Hormuz, because LNG makes up about two-thirds of Spain's supply mix. And in turn, the country is one of the most dependant European markets on liquefied gas imports.
Strong bids from Asia for Atlantic basin cargoes lifted northwest Europe LNG prices above the benchmark TTF hub on Tuesday,leading to little-to-no cargo transactions taking place for delivery to Europe. A northwest Europe LNG price premium to the TTF means that it is cheaper to buy gas from the hub instead of buying LNG at a premium to the hub. Spain is also unable to attract LNG cargoes as far as the des prices remain above the PVB.
Spain is well supplied to face a slowdown in LNG imports in the short term.
Spanish LNG stocks at 12.6TWh are equal to nearly 51pc of capacity, as of Tuesday morning. And there are 13 vessels currently declaring for arrival to Spain this month, data from ship-tracking platform Kpler show.
There is 20TWh in underground storage sites available for commercial use, although 17TWh is part of a security buffer that can only be used with the government's approval.
The state also owns about 26TWh of strategic gas reserves to use in the event of a major supply disruption.
