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European jet fuel doubles crude price due to war

  • Market: Oil products
  • 05/03/26

Jet fuel in northwest Europe traded at more than twice the prices of North Sea crude on 5 March, extending its record premium for a third consecutive day, as the war in the Mideast Gulf causes extreme volatility the jet fuel market.

Cif northwest European jet fuel held an $87.96/bl premium to the North Sea Dated benchmark crude basket and a $90.97/bl premium to front-month Ice Brent futures on Thursday, Argus assessments show.

North Sea Dated and front-month Ice Brent futures were assessed at $87.74/bl and $84.73/bl, respectively.

Premiums to crude — also known as refining margins or cracks — hit what was then a record high of over $70/bl on 3 March, before volatility in the market deepened on Wednesday. Price visibility collapsed on Thursday, with market participants unable to agree on levels because of the volatility, they said.

Jet fuel cracks in Europe are now more than 200pc higher on the month and over 350pc higher on the year.

Even though broader product supply has come under threat because of the war in the Mideast Gulf, jet fuel prices have taken off in a manner like never before, market participants said.

For comparison, jet fuel roughly holds a $25/bl premium to diesel at the moment — it was trading at around a $2-4/bl premium to diesel last week, and at a discount this time last year.

The Mideast Gulf accounts for more than 50pc of Europe's jet fuel imports, Kpler and Vortexa data show, while Europe has become structurally tighter on jet fuel supply. No jet fuel has passed through the strait of Hormuz, which Iran claims to have shut, since the war broke out on 28 February. At least two tankers that were set to load in the region have since turned away.

Refineries are likely maximising jet fuel output because of the situation and wide margins, market participants believe, although this will not be enough to replace Mideast Gulf supply.

But they stressed that jet fuel values have completely detached from fundamentals. Although they were reluctant to make short-term forecasts on the jet fuel market given the volatility, they agreed that values will rapidly drop if the conflict de-escalates.


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