India's long-term LNG supply is unlikely to be affected by the 19 March missile attacks on QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan LNG complex, as supplies to India mainly come from trains 2 and 3 at the facility, traders told Argus.
The damaged export capacity is equivalent to 12.8mn t/yr, leaving Ras Laffan with an export capacity of 64.2mn t/yr now from 77mn t/yr earlier.
India's LNG supply in the short-term is expected to be tight, while long-term supplies to Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China have been hit.
India has a 45pc dependency on LNG supplies coming out of the Ras Laffan complex. India's LNG importers brought in a total of 11.37mn t of LNG from the facility in 2025, out of India's total LNG imports of 24.91mn t, data from market analytics firm Kpler show.
State-run Petronet LNG is the biggest importer in India, making up 60pc of Ras Laffan's LNG supply to India, which it then further supplies to other downstream customers. Petronet currently has an 8.5mn t/yr supply agreement with RasGas (former name of QatarEnergy) till 2028.
QatarEnergy has a 7.5mn t/yr long-term LNG agreement with Petronet from 2028 till 2048, 700,000t/yr with state-run Gail from 2025 till 2030, and 1mn t/yr with GSPC from 2026 till 2043.
Some market participants say the disruption to its LNG exports will likely be prolonged, especially if extensive repairs are required. Others expect the facility to remain shut for at least three months, and deliveries up to June could be impacted.
Indian LNG traders expect Petronet, Gail, and other importers to extend their force majeure to downstream customers, further curtailing gas supplies to city gas, fertilizer, and industries that were getting reduced supply since the war broke out.
Landed LNG prices to India's west coast have jumped by 34pc since the beginning of this week as the Argus-assessed price for deliveries to west India for second-half April stood at $25.10/mn Btu on 19 March, up by $6.03-6.08/mn Btu from the previous session.
"Demand destruction is the only option left with downstream customers currently, apart from buying LNG at a higher price," an India-based LNG trader told Argus, adding that there could be limited options for Petronet to seek replacement cargoes.
This is likely to keep India's household cooking fuel supply weak as a shortage in LPG cylinders had prompted domestic city gas firms like Indraprastha Gas (IGL) and Mahanagar Gas (MGL) to announce incentives to encourage consumers to switch to piped natural gas (PNG) after the government mandate entailed them receiving 100pc priority allocation of gas.
IGL began offering free gas worth 500 rupees upon taking a PNG connection before 31 March, while MGL announced a waiver of Rs500 registration charge for domestic consumers and a security deposit waiver for commercial users. BPCL has also announced waivers of security deposits for all commercial connections.
The government noted around 125,000 new domestic and commercial PNG connections within the span of two weeks this month, a government official said in a media brief this week.
This came as the shortage of LPG supply prompted the government to increase the waiting times between LPG cylinder bookings from 21 days to 25 days in urban areas and 45 days in rural areas to better manage supply.
India's LNG importers including GSPC, Gail and IOC have already procured prompt LNG supplies for March at $18-21.50/mn Btu range, Argus previously reported.
Petronet's 138,000m³ Disha carrying 60,000t of LNG has not been able to transit the strait of Hormuz and has been waiting around the Ras Laffan LNG terminal since 28 February, satellite imagery from Vortexa show.
