Brazil soy demand for biodiesel may rise by 72pc

Market: Agriculture, Biofuels
16/04/26

Demand for soybeans used to produce biodiesel in Brazil may increase by 72pc to 74mn metric tonnes (t) by 2035 on the back of slated gains in the country's biodiesel blending mandate, according to the soybean and corn producers' association of Mato Grosso state, Aprosoja-MT.

Aprosoja-MT forecasts Brazil's biodiesel output will rise to 18mn t in 2035 from 10mn t in 2026, in large part due to the planned increase of the biodiesel blending mandate in the fuel of the future law to 24pc by 2035 from the current 15pc.

Considering soybean oil represents around 70pc of the feedstocks used for biodiesel production in Brazil, according to hydrocarbons regulator ANP, demand for soy oil in 2035 would reach 12.3mn t. That means it would be necessary to crush 74mn t of soybeans to produce around 12.3mn t of oil by 2035 from 7.2mn t in 2025.

Aprosoja-MT estimates Brazil's consumption of diesel, including biodiesel, of 1.4mn b/d in the 2026-35 period. In 2025, Brazil consumed an average 1.2mn b/d of diesel.

The fuel of the future law establishes targets for the increase in biofuels blending in Brazil. It sets that the biodiesel blending mandate should grow by 1 percentage point/yr until 2030, which could be extended until 2035.

But the increase of the blending mandate to 15pc from 14pc was delayed by six months in 2025, and the increase to 16pc — scheduled for March 2026 — has not been implemented yet because the government is still running the necessary feasibility tests.

According to mines and energy ministry MME, the final report covering blends of 16-20pc is expected to be approved by late March 2027 if tests confirm these levels are feasible. That means the increase of the blending mandate to 16pc will have to wait at least until April 2027.

Brazil's biodiesel demand is expected to reach 365,000 b/d in 2035, according to the association of vegetable oil industries Abiove. That would be more than double from 170,000 b/d in 2025, which reflected a 14.2pc average blending rate, according to ANP.

Brazil's industrial sector would have to invest R52.2bn ($10.4bn) in new soybean crushers and biodiesel plants to be able to meet that demand, according to Abiove.

By João Marinho

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Brazil soy demand for biodiesel may rise by 72pc

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